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Michael Davidson

@michaeldavidson.bsky.social
3.5K followers 521 following 57 posts

Assoc prof in policy and engineering at UC San Diego. Decarbonizing world’s toughest grids @ Power Transformation Lab. pwrlab.org

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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Important perspective on the positives and negatives of geopolitical contest on decarbonization.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Read the Carbon Brief post on our article: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-w... The paper is open access: www.cell.com/cell-reports... Co-authors: @zhenhuazhang.bsky.social, Ziheng Zhu, Xi Lu, and Da Zhang (Tsinghua)
carbonbrief.org
Guest post: What an ‘ambitious’ 2035 electricity target looks like for China - Carbon Brief
China’s power sector is both the world’s largest emitter and the largest source of clean-energy growth, making it essential to global climate efforts.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
To translate these large capacity numbers to generation and fossil displacement, need more efforts on integration- interconnection, transmission bottlenecks, efficient dispatch & markets, esp cross-provincial. Without these, even more capacity will be needed for ~ 50% wind+solar share by 2035.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
While emissions caps central to global climate governance, complementary policies in China's context help mobilize resources and guide state-owned enterprises and local gov planning & investment. Given evolving renewable energy supports in Document 136, this is essential to keep clean energy pace.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
This translates to ~ 40% wind and solar generation share by 2030 and 50% by 2035. Non-fossil generation reaching 50% by 2030 and 70-80% by 2035. In total, we found wind+solar capacity should be 3000-3800 GW. Hence, China's wind+solar NDC is upper range of what is needed for broader climate effort.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Earlier this year, together with researchers from Tsinghua University, we examined how wind and solar targets must evolve to align with climate scenarios. Under these scenarios, China’s power sector emissions would need to fall from roughly 5,000 MtCO₂ today to between 3,300–3,800 MtCO₂ by 2035.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
On the power sector, China has opted for a total wind and solar capacity target, striving to reach 3600 GW. This represents an acceleration over the previous 1200 GW by 2030 target, and is more in line with deployment trends over the last 5 years.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Many observers will note the underwhelming emissions target. There will be more analyses on how far from a 2C scenario--some have noted 30%. For non fossil fuel share reaching 30%, assuming this is primary energy, with higher rates of electrification plus clean energy, it is possible to exceed this.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
China's new climate NDC targets delivered today by Xi Jinping to UN climate summit, by 2035, include: - Reduce economy wide net GHG emissions by 7% - 10% from peak levels, striving to do better - Increase non fossil fuels in total energy consumption to 30% - Expand wind and solar capacity to 3600 GW
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
China's new NDC per XJP at UN, by 2035: 1. Reduce economy wide net GHG by 7% - 10% from peak levels, striving to do better 2. Increase non fossil fuels in total energy consumption to 30% 3. Expand wind and solar capacity to 6x of 2020 levels, striving to bring total to 3600 GW
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Listening to the UN climate summit now. Xi Jinping speaking now via video. webtv.un.org/en/asset/k12...
webtv.un.org
Climate Summit 2025
To accelerate momentum, the UN Secretary-General will host a Special High-Level Event on Climate Action on 24 September 2025, as a platform for leaders to present their new Nationally Determined Contr...
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
I’m deeply grateful to everyone in my lab (past and present) who have supported me and each other on this journey. And thankful to my mentors, collaborators and colleagues--I look forward to continuing to build solutions for a more sustainable energy future. Connect with us! pwrlab.org
pwrlab.org
Power Transformation Lab
The Power Transformation Lab at the University of California, San Diego studies the engineering and institutional requirements of deploying low-carbon energy at scale
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Together, we’re advancing research in the U.S., China, Southeast Asia, and India on: ⚡ Tackling power sector greening ⚡ Modeling political economy challenges of energy transitions ⚡ Finding solutions to clean tech trade and supply chains issues
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
where we study the engineering implications, institutional conflicts, and global value chains inherent in deploying low-carbon energy at scale. I’m fortunate to work with amazing students, and colleagues and partners across academia, government, industry, and civil society.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
🌟 Excited to share that I’ve been appointed Associate Professor at the UC San Diego, tenured in both Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (Jacobs) and School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS). Deeply fortunate to have a home to build up our interdisciplinary Power Transformation Lab...
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Reposted by Michael Davidson
Center for Global Sustainability @ctrglobsust.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
While countries aim to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, a recent study in @cp-iscience.bsky.social assesses the critical mineral demand needed to meet this target and examines how mineral bottlenecks affect clean tech: www.cell.com/iscience/ful...
A journal article in iScience titled "Critical Mineral Bottlenecks Constrain Sub-Technology Choices in Low-Carbon Energy Deployment".
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
This study was led by UCSD MAE PhD student @zhenhuazhang.bsky.social and collaborators at Tsinghua University, Ziheng Zhu, Xi Lu, Da Zhang. #CleanEnergy #EnergyPolicy #energysky #ClimateAction #RenewableEnergy #China
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
As countries release their new NDCs this year, China's decisions could shape the pace and ambition of global efforts. Explore all the details, along with access to our data and modeling code: github.com/Power-Lab/Ce...
github.com
GitHub - Power-Lab/CellReports_NDC_2025
Contribute to Power-Lab/CellReports_NDC_2025 development by creating an account on GitHub.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
6️⃣ Critical infrastructure investments in transmission and storage are essential to accommodate the rapid growth of renewables. Without enhanced coordination, integrated planning and expanded infrastructure, China’s grid may face constraints, risking renewable curtailment and reliability issues.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
5️⃣ Third, adopting a broader clean energy generation target (including hydro, nuclear, and biomass) of over 60% by 2030 and 70%-80% by 2035 is achievable and strategically beneficial.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
4️⃣ Second, introducing explicit wind and solar generation share targets—eg achieving ~ 40% by 2030 and reaching 50% by 2035—would provide clear guidance to maintain momentum toward 2060 carbon neutrality.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
3️⃣ Our study recommends several sets of possible targets for China to set its sights high on RE. First, renewable energy capacity targets: 2030 goal could rise from 1,200 GW to at least 2,200 GW, and by 2035 an ambitious target of 2,800 GW by 2035 to ensure robust progress toward climate goals.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
2️⃣ Wind and solar energy's role in China’s electricity mix will grow dramatically—from 17.9% in 2024 to 41%–46% by 2030, and further to 49%–56% by 2035. This substantial increase underscores the pivotal role renewable energy will play in China’s decarbonization efforts.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
1️⃣ Consistent with a 2ºC scenario, China will need to significantly scale its wind and solar installations. We project requirements of 2,350–2,780 GW by 2030 and increasing to 2,910–3,800 GW by 2035.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
🚨 New study alert 🚨 What renewable energy targets should China adopt in its forthcoming climate targets? Our latest research in @CellRepSustain provides a roadmap for reducing emissions in China's power sector by 2035. 🧵 Dive into our key findings below 👇  www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Ratcheting up wind and solar targets for decarbonizing the power sector in China and beyond
As countries are releasing their 2035 nationally determined contributions (NDCs), we examine the renewable deployment requirements for China to meet i…
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
More details, code, and data available here: github.com/Power-Lab/Na... . Lab members Fikri Kucuksayacigil and @zhenhuazhang.bsky.social led this study. #CleanEnergy #EnergyPolicy #energysky #ClimateAction
github.com
GitHub - Power-Lab/NatureComms_Market_Coordination_2025
Contribute to Power-Lab/NatureComms_Market_Coordination_2025 development by creating an account on GitHub.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
6️⃣ Key takeaway: Market coordination is crucial, but the political reality makes this challenging. States benefit from even partial coordination—suggesting practical steps can significantly support climate goals.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
5️⃣ Robust planning matters. Locationally dependent resources (RE and storage deployments) are sensitive to policy uncertainty. States with clearer clean-energy targets have nearly double the renewable build-out compared to states with uncertain policies. While firm resources are more robust.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
4️⃣ Transmission vs storage? It's complicated. Coordination leads to bigger transmission networks: lines expand by up to 149% under optimal coordination. But reaching net zero requires more storage than transmission relative to current state policy.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
3️⃣ While large, these aggregate regional cost savings are a few %, but state-level deployment and savings can differ by an order of magnitude. Policy alignment across states matters—a lot. Based on grid planning, resources in different states become economical.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
2️⃣ Fully coordinated power markets save about $3.25B/year compared to current fragmented market structures. But even incremental coordination (like expanding real-time markets) offers substantial cost reductions. Moving from an EIM to RTO (and more) generates greater savings.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
1️⃣ Coordinating climate policies across state lines can significantly reduce costs of clean power transition. We modeled realistic political barriers and market structures in the Western U.S. grid, including: energy, reserves, resource adequacy, generation coordination and transmission coordination.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
🚨 New research alert 🚨 How important is regional power sector coordination for achieving affordable, reliable, and clean power in the Western U.S.? Our new Power Transformation Lab study in @NatureComms dives deep: doi.org/10.1038/s414... 🧵Thread on key findings👇
doi.org
Coordinating power sector climate transitions under policy uncertainty - Nature Communications
Effective climate policy requires coordination among political jurisdictions. We find that aggregate costs of coordinated power systems are just a few percent lower than the current levels, but state-...
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Reposted by Michael Davidson
Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations @penn-us-china.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
Here is video of the terrific discussion featuring our 2nd fellowship cohort’s Climate & Environment team @michaeldavidson.bsky.social, @joannalewis.bsky.social, @katelogan.bsky.social, presenting their working papers, expertly moderated by @greenlawchina.bsky.social: www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNZT...
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Reposted by Michael Davidson
Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations @penn-us-china.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
We are delighted to publish working papers by the Climate & Environment team of this year's fellowship cohort, available at global.upenn.edu/future-of-us.... And please join us for a live webinar featuring these authors tomorrow January 23 from 4-5 pm ET, registration link at the QR code below:
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Leadership turnover shapes SOE incentives, yet just transition gaps persist for workers & communities. International collaboration can green overseas SOE projects by improving transparency & fostering risk-sharing partnerships.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Competition among SOEs & local governments sparks progress, but coal remains central for energy security. Transition financing faces uncertainty, with green loans still ~10% of total lending since 2016 (though post-2023 shows some uptick). Fiscal policies misalign with climate goals.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
China's SOE reforms have largely stagnated, shifting focus to tech & modernization goals over privatization. Clean energy sectors have highly mixed ownership. Future uncertain as SOEs blur with private enterprises.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
We published our take-aways from the 2024 Workshop on Low-Carbon Transitions in Chinese State-Owned Enterprises, held earlier this year. Here are some of our key observations: pwrlab.org/2024/12/15/w...
pwrlab.org
2024 Workshop on Low-Carbon Transitions in Chinese State-Owned Enterprises: Key Take-Aways
These takeaways represent significant points made during the discussion at the ”Workshop on Low-Carbon Transitions in Chinese SOEs” held at UC San Diego on April 12-13, 2024. They are not consensus ob...
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
Highly recommend this piece by @busbyj2.bsky.social and coauthors on how to manage current conflicts between US and China on clean tech and minerals. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
Can the U.S. and China Ease Tensions with a Clean Tech Détente?
To limit the damage from an escalating trade dispute, the United States and China should negotiate a clean tech détente to balance support for domestic industries given the reality of the countries’ e...
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
I’m sympathetic to the permanence argument, but we could also imagine a pathway where we do cheap impermanent storage now, and by the time it starts to leak we have scaled up other negative emissions technologies (eg running on super cheap renewables).
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
This short pod interviewing @kclausing.bsky.social is the most digestible explanation I’ve heard of the connection among tariffs, employment, inflation, supply chains and (!) monetary policy. @soumayakeynes.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
podcasts.apple.com
The Economics Show: Would Trump’s tariffs really be that bad?
Podcast Episode · FT News Briefing · 12/01/2024 · 33m
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
Y’all @joannalewis.bsky.social is on here.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Indonesia’s new president has committed to phase out coal and all fossil power in 15 years. If this is where you’re starting from, with less than 1 GW of wind and solar on the grid—that is the definition of ambitious.
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
The climate+trade debate is increasingly conflating two very different issues: 1. Embedded carbon in trade (of energy intensive products), 2. Trade of low carbon technologies. These are quite distinct issues. Perhaps there is a grand bargain here but it’s elusive to me.
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Reposted by Michael Davidson
Glenn Luk @gluk.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Tech transfer was always about technology for profits. The EU is absolutely right to pool its leverage to extract the best deal possible, just like China did for decades. It's about being smart and acting in the best interests of your constituencies. www.ft.com/content/f4fd...
ft.com
EU to demand technology transfers from Chinese companies
New requirements will apply to batteries but could be expanded to other green sectors
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Salaries are governed by union contracts: postdoc.ucsd.edu/postdocs/app...
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
📢 We are hiring! @teevrat.bsky.social and I @GPS_UCSD are looking for postdoc on clean energy trade relationship between China and India. We are analyzing: - trade (HS8) / global value chains data - localization policies - global competitiveness For more info: pwrlab.org/2024/11/15/j...
pwrlab.org
Job Opening: Postdoctoral Scholar – Renewable Energy Trade between India and China
Postdoctoral Scholar – Renewable Energy Trade between India and China The 21st Century India Center at UC San Diego invites applications for a postdoctoral scholar to conduct research on the renewable...
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Michael Davidson @michaeldavidson.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Thanks Josh! Happy to receive feedback. I cite a lot of other experts in this review. Please tag here or chat me if they’re on blue sky!
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Reposted by Michael Davidson
Josh Busby @busbyj2.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Highly recommend this survey by @michaeldavidson.bsky.social on the challenges of the decline of coal and decarbonization in China. Power shortages in 2021 and 2022 cast a long shadow as the country has permitted new coal plant construction. wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Managing the decline of coal in a decarbonizing China
China's coal employment has gone through two previous contractions, indicating the opportunity and challenges for the coming decarbonization transition.
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