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Matthew Bowes

@mbowes.bsky.social
533 followers 543 following 536 posts

(He/him) Posting about public policy, housing and economics. Senior Associate at the Grattan Institute. grattan.edu.au/expert/matthew-bowes

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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It goes without saying that closing these deficits - either through less investment or larger operating surpluses - will be a challenge for states around Australia. But with bond yields on the rise, running deficits like these will become increasingly costly. 4/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In the case of Queensland, a combination of a packed pre-Olympic capital investment program and near-term operating deficits means they are forecasting cumulative fiscal deficits of nearly 9 per cent of state product over the next four years. 3/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
While most states are forecasting operating surpluses over coming years - surpluses that may be difficult to achieve - even this level of restraint is not enough to offset high levels of capital investment. 2/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
State government finances have been in the news again this month, with Queensland’s credit rating being downgraded by S&P from AA+ to AA. Taking a look at state budget forecasts over the coming years puts this change in context. 1/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Building public support for budget repair means being clear-eyed about the fiscal challenges that lie ahead, and the significant effort governments will have to make to respond to them. You can read the PBO's full report at the link below. www.pbo.gov.au/publi...
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
All this goes to show that when it comes to Australia's fiscal challenges, we can't afford to be distracted by - or cry wolf about - big numbers.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
And while in recent years revenue windfalls from volatile sources such as royalties and stamp duties have helped to offset higher-than-expected spending, those windfalls are not guaranteed to continue in the future.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
As the chart below shows, drawing on the PBO's data, governments across Australia tend to under-forecast both revenue and expenses. But especially post-pandemic, overshoots on expenses have meant deficits end up being larger than states first forecast.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
And thanks to a great new dataset of state budget forecasts that the PBO released alongside the publication, we can see how challenging it will be for states to meaningfully close deficits and stabilise debt.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
But the publication also points to several warning signs - not so much for the federal debt, but for debt levels among states and territories. Outside of WA, governments are projecting sharp increases in debt servicing costs as a share of revenue over the forward estimates.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
These challenges are well outlined in the PBO's latest National Fiscal Outlook, which was released this week. As that publication shows, Australia's overall levels of debt are manageable if governments take action to close deficits as they have in the past.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
In that case, the film industry wanted to paint a picture of a business on the rise, whereas in reality - once we account for ticket price inflation - it's still in real trouble. In the case of Australia's debt, the $1 trillion figure elides the real budget challenges we face.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
As someone who enjoys following movie news, the media's obsession with this arbitrary debt threshold reminded me of the news from a few weeks back that the new Spider-Man film had set the record for the largest ever box office opening, at more than $900 million worldwide.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Big numbers have power - they draw public attention. But interpreting them isn't straightforward. And that's certainly the case when it comes to the news this week that the federal debt has passed $1 trillion. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Agree public space is something governments have to plan for and deliver. But ultimately city living comes with trade offs. Australia’s cities are less dense than many overseas, which impacts carbon emissions, productivity, and affordability. More homes in our cities seems to me a good thing.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
You can read the full papers at the link below.
nsw.gov.au
Building more homes where the numbers stack up | NSW Government
This paper is the fourth in our housing series and explores how to improve development feasibility and build more homes in NSW.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
If we want to tackle housing affordability and build more homes where Australians most want to live, then we need a better way to measure policy success, and failure. Recent advancements in housing research in Australia are increasingly helping us do just that.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
The many new insights this research provides lay the groundwork for achieving the big uplifts in feasible capacity NSW needs to achieve its housing supply goals. There’s still plenty of work to do, but the direction of reform is clear.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
The updated feasibility estimates for apartment projects in Sydney released by the NSW Productivity and Equality Commission and by the Centre for International Economics this week echo these conclusions.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Our results showed that much of the housing capacity that exists in urban plans simply isn't profitable to develop, but also that there are plentiful opportunities for profitable development that existing planning rules block.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Our recent housing research at Grattan focused instead on the feasibility of housing development, to show how land prices, construction costs, and sale prices interact across our cities.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Councils traditionally simply compared the housing capacity permitted under their plans with projected demand over the next few years. But this analysis was silent on if and when that capacity was likely to be developed, and so often justified an overly restrictive status quo.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
But policymakers, urban planners, and advocates are all constantly grappling with trade-offs. Theory and empirical studies don't always provide the practical insights they need.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Economists have long argued that planning restrictions play an important role in depressing housing supply and raising prices in high-demand areas. And a growing body of empirical evidence shows that planning reform can shift this dynamic.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Better economic insights make for better housing policy. This was a big part of the case for land use planning reform we made in our recent housing research at Grattan. That’s why it was great to see NSW commit this week to feasible capacity targets for local council plans. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
It was great to present to an audience at ACE who share a passion for housing policy and better cities. For anyone else interested, you can find the full set of slides at the link below.
grattan.edu.au
Sizing up planning reform
Understanding the commercial feasibility of new infill housing is key.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Early evidence from Melbourne also shows that these feasibility estimates predict how likely properties are to be developed for infill housing - but there’s still plenty more work to do to dig into what types of policies are most effective at boosting housing supply, and why.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
What housing is profitable depends upon existing property values, the price of newly built homes, and the cost of what is being built - from townhouses, to low-rise flats, to affordable rental housing projects.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Our analysis - published last year in our 'More homes, better cities' report - shows that only a small share of the 'zoned capacity' for housing that is permitted by planning controls in cities like Melbourne and Sydney is likely to be profitable to develop.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
In my presentation to the Australian Conference of Economists this week, I dug into the details of how planning controls impact the feasibility of infill housing development, and how understanding this link can help policy makers better tackle our housing supply challenges.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Evidence from New Zealand and elsewhere shows that upzoning for more density can boost housing construction. But existing ‘zoned capacity’ analysis tools make it difficult for policy makers to assess the impacts of these changes ahead of time.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Australian cities are upzoning to allow for more apartments and townhouses, with the aim of getting more homes built. But policy makers need better tools to assess how effective these policies can be. It all starts with better understanding commercial feasibility. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
In my presentation to the Australian Conference of Economists this week, I dug into the details of how planning controls impact the feasibility of infill housing development, and how understanding this link can help policy makers better tackle our housing supply challenges.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Evidence from New Zealand and elsewhere shows that upzoning for more density can boost housing construction. But existing ‘zoned capacity’ analysis tools make it difficult for policy makers to assess the impacts of these changes ahead of time.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
You can listen in to the full episode here:
abc.net.au
Home prices are heading down, but how far? - ABC listen
Home prices are falling for the first time in more than three years. Is Labor's housing policy starting to work? And if prices come down, who wins and who loses?  We unpack what's really driving the market, whether the budget's tax changes will make it easier to buy a home, what they mean for renters, and why Australia's housing affordability crisis can't be explained by immigration alone.  Guests: Matthew Bowes, Senior Associate, Grattan Institute Maria Yanotti, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Tasmania Referred to: Housing market downturn deepens as demand headwinds build, Cotality, July 1, 2026 The housing crisis that Australia built, Brendan Coates, Grattan Institute, March 11, 2026 More homes, better cities: Letting more people live where they want, Brendan Coates, Joey Moloney, Matthew Bowes, Grattan Institute, November 5, 2025 Housing submarket spillovers and COVID-19: the increasing influence of Australia’s regional cities, María Yanotti et al, December 31, 2025 Housing Q&A, Diana Mousina, AMP, June 18, 2026 Statement 4: Tax reform for workers, businesses and future generations, Commonwealth Budget, May 2026
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
I had a great time this week talking about trends in house prices, what factors shape housing demand, and how to build more homes in the places people want to live on Peter Martin's 'The Economy, Stupid' podcast, alongside Maria Yanotti. I'll link to the full episode below.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
You can read the full piece at the link below. 7/
grattan.edu.au
Rising rents and ‘death taxes’
Why wild claims after the budget don't actually make sense.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
That’s a shame. Because there are many more ways we could reform our tax system to boost the budget, grow the economy, and expand economic opportunity for all Australians. So if tax reform is off the table, we all lose. 6/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
The difficulty of tax reform doesn't make it any less necessary. It also doesn't mean that reformers won’t succeed. The introduction of the GST in the late 90s is a case in point. In recent years however, governments have struggled to implement reforms of that scale. 5/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
But I also argue that - whatever your views on these tax changes - we should all be concerned if policymakers decide to put tax reform in the “too hard basket”. 4/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
No, landlords can’t just 'pass on' their higher tax bill in the form of higher rents. And no, the proposed minimum tax on trust income is not a 'death tax'. 3/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
In my piece, I highlight two claims about the tax changes announced at the budget that just don't hold water, and which have muddied rather than clarified the public debate. 2/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Clearly, debate about important tax reforms is an important thing - in any tax switch, policy design matters. But that debate is poorer if myths and misunderstandings are allowed to take hold, as they often do. 1/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Tax reform is hard. Its goal is to shift our tax base toward fairer and more efficient taxes. Inevitably, those who see their tax bill rise will be unhappy, while benefits to the wider economy are less apparent. My latest piece for the Conversation goes to exactly this issue. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
You can read the full report (and lengthy technical appendix) on the Grattan website. 6/
grattan.edu.au
Wasted space: Axe car-parking rules to cut the cost of housing
State and local governments typically require new housing to include off-street parking – often much more than residents want, needlessly driving up the price of housing.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
I'm hopeful that this kind of in-depth analysis can raise the bar for conversations around parking regulation in our cities. We can do better than costly parking mandates that don't respond to people's real parking needs. 5/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
This analysis shows that many urban streets could accommodate extra density without filling up on-street parking, and that parking permits and charges - not parking requirements - are what actually helps to manage congestion on our streets. 4/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
We also draw on machine-learning analysis of satellite imagery to show how on-street parking utilisation varies across our cities. 3/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Using our GMAPS model of the Melbourne and Sydney planning systems, our analysis reveals that this has substantial impacts on the commercial feasibility of new housing - removing parking minimums would create feasible capacity for 140,000 new homes across both cities. 2/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Drawing on detailed property-level data, along with data on parking regulations and construction costs, we show for the first time that in many suburbs in our largest cities, the average homebuyer values car spaces at less than they cost to build. 1/
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