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Matthew Bowes

@mbowes.bsky.social
532 followers 542 following 536 posts

(He/him) Posting about public policy, housing and economics. Senior Associate at the Grattan Institute. grattan.edu.au/expert/matthew-bowes

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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
State government finances have been in the news again this month, with Queensland’s credit rating being downgraded by S&P from AA+ to AA. Taking a look at state budget forecasts over the coming years puts this change in context. 1/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Big numbers have power - they draw public attention. But interpreting them isn't straightforward. And that's certainly the case when it comes to the news this week that the federal debt has passed $1 trillion. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Better economic insights make for better housing policy. This was a big part of the case for land use planning reform we made in our recent housing research at Grattan. That’s why it was great to see NSW commit this week to feasible capacity targets for local council plans. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Australian cities are upzoning to allow for more apartments and townhouses, with the aim of getting more homes built. But policy makers need better tools to assess how effective these policies can be. It all starts with better understanding commercial feasibility. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
I had a great time this week talking about trends in house prices, what factors shape housing demand, and how to build more homes in the places people want to live on Peter Martin's 'The Economy, Stupid' podcast, alongside Maria Yanotti. I'll link to the full episode below.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Tax reform is hard. Its goal is to shift our tax base toward fairer and more efficient taxes. Inevitably, those who see their tax bill rise will be unhappy, while benefits to the wider economy are less apparent. My latest piece for the Conversation goes to exactly this issue. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Parking minimums are one of the clearest examples of how legacy planning rules have let Australians down. They seek to mollify those concerned about on-street parking chaos. But they don’t work, and they make housing more expensive to build. Our new Grattan report shows how. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Had a great time yesterday chatting about all the housing announcements in this week’s federal budget with Jonathan O’Brien, Jessy Wu, and Manning Clifford, as part of the latest Inflection Points podcast. There's a lot to unpack!
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Yesterday, I travelled to Canberra to join the budget lock-up, tentatively excited by what the budget papers would show. As it turns out, they didn’t disappoint. A short 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Much of the focus on housing policy pre-budget has been around potential reforms to capital gains and negative gearing. But it’s likely the most important housing policy at this budget has already been announced. A short 🧵 on the local infrastructure fund.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
With the budget just around the corner, yesterday we released our Grattan 2026 Budget Cheat-sheet, setting out how much Australians earn and own. It's a helpful guide for budget-watchers - and this year it even includes a stats on rental losses and capital gains!
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Grattan Institute @grattaninstitute.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Budgets are hundreds of decisions about how the government will tax and spend — but how many people will actually be affected? Grattan’s 2026 Budget cheat sheet breaks it down, read more here: grattan.edu.au/news/grattan...
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Had a great time talking all about housing and tax reform alongside Peter Tulip on RN yesterday morning. Like many of those who texted in to the program, I'll be very interested to see what next week's budget brings.
abc.net.au
What housing economists are looking for in this budget - ABC listen
It's been widely reported that next week's federal budget will feature changes to the capital gains tax, negative gearing and the treatment of trust funds. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the changes are needed to help create intergenerational fairness around housing.  Two experts weigh in on how these changes could work.  Guest: Peter Tulip, Chief Economist at Centre For Independent Studies + Matthew Bowes, Senior Associate Grattan Institute Producer: Eddy Diamond
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
There's been some public discussion about how to 'grandfather' any future changes made to the capital gains tax, so that investments already made don't see changes to their tax treatment. Here's three things to keep in mind about grandfathering and tax reform. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Building more homes and better cities is one of Australia's biggest productivity opportunities. That's why in Grattan's submission to the Senate Inquiry into Australian Productivity, we argue for federal government leadership on productivity-enhancing planning reform. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Who gets a say? It’s one of the core questions in any democratic process. In our recent report on Australia’s democratic resilience, we make the case for broadening whose voices count in elections for our lowest level of government. A short thread 🧵 1/
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
The Grattan podcast is back! Listen in to catch Kate Griffiths and me talking about our latest report 'For the people: future-proofing Australia's democracy'. Link below.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Among many discussions we have with policy leaders at the Grattan Institute, one issue continually comes to the fore: Australia's democracy. But is our democracy really under pressure? If so, how should we respond? This is the topic of our latest Grattan Institute report.
grattan.edu.au
For the people: future-proofing Australia's democracy
Australians cannot take the future strength and resilience of our democracy for granted. These are more turbulent times not just for our economy or standard of living, but for liberal democracies themselves.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Was great to be on a panel hosted by Infrastructure Victoria last week discussing all things housing, planning, and infrastructure, alongside Katherine Sundermann, Patrick Fensham, and Jonathan Spear.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Recently in my research at the Grattan Institute, I’ve been thinking a lot about Australian democracy: the factors that have made it successful, the challenges it faces, and how we can make it better. A few thoughts on one of the books that’s helped me with these questions. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Was absolutely thrilled to take part in a panel this week alongside the great Alain Bertaud, as part of an event organised by YIMBY Melbourne
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Paul Austin @paulnaustin.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
My boss wrote a piece in support of migration – and migrants. It’s good. Makes me proud. #auspol grattan.edu.au/news/migrant...
grattan.edu.au
Migrants are who we are - Grattan Institute
When political opportunists come for migrants, it is kids in schools across this country who bear the scars.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Excited to have been in Sydney today presenting on some of our research as part of a Grattan Institute event on ‘How to tackle Sydney’s housing crisis’. Here's a short summary🧵
grattan.edu.au
How to tackle Sydney’s housing crisis - Grattan Institute
These changes could save $1.2b a year.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
The idea that landlords just ‘pass through’ costs they face onto renters - as is now being argued in the context of capital gains tax reform - is widespread, but misguided. A short thread 🧵
afr.com
Rents will surge if CGT discount goes, warns REIA
Ahead of a Senate inquiry into the capital gains tax discount on investment properties, the residential real estate industry warns against change.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
With the federal budget approaching and speculation again mounting over capital gains tax reform, there's been some discussion about returning to the pre-99 'inflation indexation' approach to taxing capital gains. Here's a quick explainer on how that would work.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
How did Australia's political parties finance their 2025 election campaigns? In our latest piece for the Conversation, Kate Griffiths and I dig into the recently released party returns data to find out. 🧵
grattan.edu.au
Election 2025: Where the money came from - Grattan Institute
New data underscore the need to improve the rules about money in politics.
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The Conversation AUNZ @aunz.theconversation.com · 02/02/2026
Huge amounts of money flowed into the coffers of Australian political parties in the lead up to the most recent federal election. Here’s who gave the most.
theconversation.com
New data show where the parties got their money from in the lead-up to the 2025 election
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
First reaction: this is an incredibly brave response in the face of some pretty blatant political thuggery. Second reaction: if I had a nickel for every time a historic reserve bank office building turned out to be a pain to refurbish…
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Benjamin Moffitt @benmoffitt.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
New year and new article out in @ausjpolsci.bsky.social with Mark Chou, Rachel Busbridge & Luke Dean: Mapping the ‘fringe’ in Australian local politics We provide the first systematic analysis of fringe candidates in the 2024 NSW & VIC local government elections. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
There’s a few arguments I disagree with in this op-ed from Kate Shaw, but one point I wish housing experts of all stripes could agree on is that a ‘30% of income’ benchmark is a poor metric of housing stress - or the functioning of our housing market.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
Good article here from Brian Potter on why Sweden’s much-commented-upon high rates of prefabrication in housing construction haven’t necessarily led to lower construction costs. Link in next post.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
I read a bunch this year for Grattan’s wonks and summer reading lists - if you haven’t checked them out, do, they’re great! - but not all my favourite papers, books, or essays made it to those lists, so here’s a few year-end highlights I thought were worth sharing. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
A succinct explanation here from Jerusalem Demsas of why the posting (including posting letters) to policy pipeline is so powerful in local government. The vibes of local policymakers are constantly being reshaped by the few community members who engage.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
I've had a great time reading and discussing a wide range of books this year to help find the best policy-relevant reads for Grattan's Prime Minister's Summer Reading List. Catch the full list on our website, along with our accompanying Wonks' List. 1/ grattan.edu.au/news/...
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Travis Jordan @grugstan.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Two months ago, I wrote a paper for the Electoral Matters Committee. It clocked in at 23,000 words with 16 data tables, 11 graphs, 204 footnotes and 30,000 datapoints. I made the case that we should take advantage of this historic juncture to expand participation in our representative democracy.
GREEN SHOOTS FOR THE GRASSROOTS
MAINTAINING TRUST IN OUR DEMOCRACY BY 
RESTORING PARTICIPATION IN DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS
This paper proposes interconnected reforms that aim to rebuild trust in Australia’s democratic institutions — our Parliament, our political parties and the ecosystem of creative conflict they drive. These institutions are a great strength in our system and shouldn’t be circumvented, dismissed or ignored by policymakers. 
For decades, Australia was the world’s laboratory for democratic reforms. We led the way on the secret ballot, women’s suffrage (for some at least), a living wage for MPs, compulsory and preferential voting and more. But since the turn of the millennium, we’ve stalled out. 
For too many people, our democracy isn’t working — not the way it should and not the way we say it does. While better than many other countries, our system still leaves people feeling like their voice isn’t being heard or their vote doesn’t count. This term, we can fix that.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Responding to our 'More homes, better cities' Grattan report, Professor Nicole Gurran wrote that our plan to boost housing supply needed a 'reality check' in part because 'building completions fall when prices stagnate'. Here's why that argument misses the mark. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
‘Australia’s economy is in a post-pandemic slump. To dig us out, state and federal governments must tackle the chronic shortage of housing in our biggest cities.’ Catch our latest piece in Pearls and Irritations:
johnmenadue.com
To fix the economy, fix housing
Australia’s economy is in a post-pandemic slump. To dig us out, state and federal governments must tackle the chronic shortage of housing in our biggest cities.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
'Housing in Australia’s cities is now among the least affordable in the world. At the heart of the problem is the fact we just haven’t built enough homes to meet rising demand.' Catch our latest op-ed in The New Daily:
grattan.edu.au
How planning stops more housing - and how to fix it - Grattan Institute
Planning regulations limit the density of our major cities. But changing planning restrictions could help fix the housing crisis.
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Grattan Institute @grattaninstitute.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
1/ Housing in Australia's major cities is among the least affordable in the world. A big reason is that we no longer build enough homes, especially where people most want to live.
Chart showing Australia's dwelling stock used to grow much faster than the adult population but not anymore
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Housing in Australia is both too scarce and too expensive. Yet our major cities are among the least dense of their size in the world. Our latest Grattan report show how we can reform our urban planning rules to allow for more homes and better cities. 🧵
grattan.edu.au
More homes, better cities: Letting more people live where they want
Three-storey townhouses and apartments should be permitted on all residential land in all capital cities as part of a concerted policy assault on Australia’s housing crisis.
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Grattan Institute @grattaninstitute.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
3-storey townhouses and apartments should be permitted on all residential land in all capital cities to help fix Australia’s housing crisis. Building more homes will create cheaper housing and more productive cities. Our new report shows how. buff.ly/NfAM6C7 #auspol
A promotional graphic with the text, New Grattan report: More homes, better cities, Letting more people live where they want. A picture of three storey town houses.
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Travis Jordan @grugstan.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
I'm back again telling everyone who'll listen and a lot of people who won't that we need more politicians! Today, the ACT Assembly's inquiry into the 2024 election published a submission from @francismarkham.bsky.social and myself arguing it's time to make the Assembly bigger... again.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 24/08/2025
It’s notable to me that recent media reports on the low and mid rise housing policy in NSW struggle to explain the details of how it works, and miss the fact that it was scaled back from the policy originally proposed. A short 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
A common meme in housing policy is that such and such a view (e.g. supply scepticism or neoliberalism) is dominant among policymakers. I’ve increasingly come to think that this is just wrong: there’s remarkably little agreement on what our housing problems actually are.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
A great project here by Michael Weibe, who is writing accessible literature reviews on topics in housing research. The first article is all about vacancy chains. open.substack.com/pu...
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Low density suburbs in growing cities often face a problem - as property values rise and older homes are replaced with larger new ones, they become steadily less affordable. But as this paper from the US shows, thoughtful zoning reforms can change this story. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Low density suburbs in growing cities often face a problem - as property values rise and older homes are replaced with larger new ones, they become steadily less affordable. But as this paper from the US shows, thoughtful zoning reforms can change this story. 🧵
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
The claim here that we can't (or won't) build more than 50 homes per hectare is puzzling. When Marcus Spiller's SGS colleagues estimated housing capacity in Boroondara LGA, they assumed 75-100 homes per hectare even for 'general' residential areas. www.abc.net.au/news/...
abc.net.au
Where is Australia going to build thousands of new homes?
To meet the government's housing target every year there will need to be infill land created about 26 times the size of Melbourne's CBD across Australia. 
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
I’m old enough to remember when the swing vote in the US Senate on major party-line reconciliation bills was so concerned about US government debt levels he had an aide text him the $ value every morning. Ah the good old days.
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Matthew Bowes @mbowes.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
Earlier this week I presented to an ABS/RBA conference on data insights in housing. While my presentation was on Grattan’s February report, ‘Renting in retirement’, the conversation in the room left me with a range of important takeaways on housing tax and productivity. 🧵
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