Reposted by Piotr
Reakcja na wojnę celną była do przewidzenia. Giełdowe trzęsienie ziemi od Japonii przez Europę do Ameryki trzeba przeżyć bez nerwowych decyzji. Polska giełda też dostała rykoszetem, ale stabilność polityczna i gospodarcza to nasze atuty w tym trudnym czasie. Spokojnie wytrwamy!
![chatgpt log:
What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%.
Reasoned about trade tariffs and deficits for 10 seconds v
A straightforward (if naïve) method is to set the tariff rate for each trading partner equal to the percentage share of the trade deficit relative to that country's total imports-always no less than 10%. In formula form:
Tariff Rate (%) = max(10, (Trade Deficit ÷ Total Imports) *
100)
For example, if the US runs a $20 billion deficit on $100 billion worth of imports from a country, the calculated rate is (20/100)×100 = 20%. If the deficit were only 5%, you'd still impose a 10% floor.
This method ignores the intricate dynamics of international trade-such as elasticities, retaliatory measures, and supply chain nuances-but it provides a blunt, proportional rule to "level the playing field." One might implement it in Python like so:
[code]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:iyz5zf463ic52vqbonyu2ebu/bafkreigbalqxjorllnpelbwe5kcla5fdedxvgv3cicxdsrbdxarodif5ba)
![Grok:
the deficit. The deficit as a percentage of total trade is
$295B/$582B = 50.69%. Using the formula Tariff% = 10% +
(Deficit% × Scaling Factor), we choose a scaling factor of 50 for illustration:
• Tariff = 10% + (50.69% × 50) = 10% + 25.345% = 35.345%, rounded to 35.3%.
This means a 35.3% tariff on Chinese goods could be proposed to offset the imbalance, aiming to reduce imports and encourage domestic production or exports.
Extending to Other Countries
To provide a broader view, here's a table of top US trading partners with 2024 deficits, using data from The Motley Fool and similar calculations (assuming scaling factor of 50 for consistency):
[data table headings]
Country
Deficit
(USD
Billion)
Total
Trade
(USD
Billion)
Deficit %
Calculate d Tariff %
China
-295
582
50.69%
35.3%
Mexico
-172
840
20.48%
20.2%
Vietnam
-123
(Data incomplet e, estimate)
~30%
25.0%
Ireland
-87
(Data incomplet e, estimate)
~25%
22.5%
Germany
-85
(Data incomplete estimate)
~20%
20.0%](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:iyz5zf463ic52vqbonyu2ebu/bafkreietqlxsi5akdrvtp2rwqpc6kt6g6bbb2dppqcfn2j4q7xkofn4f4y)
