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With the UK economy entering a new economic shock, we are entering a period of heightened uncertainty. That's reflected in wage growth data, which grew by a modest 0.2% when adjusted for inflation

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We can break this down by region, showing the imbalance is sharpest in the north-east where there are five unemployed people per vacancy, and the most balanced in the south-east

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Putting this together with todays fall in unemployment means the number of jobs per person seeking work has improved slightly There have been increasingly too few vacancies per unemployed person, but the fall in unemployment holds that back, for now...

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Since the start of 2024, the sharpest fall in vacancies has been in health, largely because there were unusually high numbers of open roles after the pandemic that are now unwinding But overall, hiring is weakening

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Hiring in the UK has fallen to its lowest levels in 10 years, outside of the pandemic

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Tom Wilson @feedthedrummer.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

🚨 The last set of labour market figures before the Iran War show we entered this crisis on a stronger footing, with lower unemployment than expected But under the hood, a cooling jobs market risks dragging on growth just as the economy faces a fresh external shock

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Reposted by Max Mosley

Increasingly impressed by Mark Carney.

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Reposted by Max Mosley

Jaya Sood @jayasood.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

Inflation up again, from 3.2% in Nov to 3.4% in Dec, just as it seemed we might be on a downward trajectory. Mostly driven by alcohol & tobacco + air fares, so arguably not the bare essentials. But food prices are still climbing.

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Interestingly, of those inactive, there's a key trend of more people wanting a job than not. This suggests to me that people are experiencing more barriers to work, rather than a lack of desire to find a job

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The post pandemic driver of inactivity continues to be ill-health, but increasingly fewer people record being inactive due to looking after family

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Inactivity has fallen slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 20.8% This seems to be driven mostly by a fall in inactive over 65s, as more (re)enter the workforce

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But the big story of today is that unemployment has already outstripped the latest OBR forecast While it's held steady at 5.1%, we're already beyond the predicted peak, which is a worrying sign

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One more worrying trend for economic growth is that average hours worked continues to languish behind pre-pandemic levels. It looks small but it matters if people are working fewer hours. This is excepted to worsen over the next few years

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Real wage growth continued to slow to 0.9% annual growth Comparing this to the OBR forecast shows we're on track to reach sustained growth in living standards over the next few years, but the difficult start to last year has held us back a little

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The good news is the steady fall in available vacancies (contributing to the loosening conditions above) appears to be levelling off

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Looking across the sectors, the greatest competition is in financial services, and the least in health and social care

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We're heading towards a too loose labour market. This matters as a loose labour market will mean a) workers are finding it difficult to find work, and b) act as a drag on future wage growth as workers lose bargaining power

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Max Mosley @maxmosley.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

🚨Today’s Labour Market stats are out Here's a short thread on the key trends 👇

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When we cut 30 affordable homes to protect a distant view, we’re not preserving heritage, we’re preserving a housing crisis 👇

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Max Mosley @maxmosley.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

A couple of weeks ago I had the privilege of joining the first UK delegation of Emerging Leaders to the European Union in Brussels. Apparently I’m a ‘future leader’ now, which is although flattering, is possibly a sign that Brexit did more damage than we thought…

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Reposted by Max Mosley

New Economics Foundation @neweconomics.bsky.social · 07/07/2025

The latest fiasco over cuts to benefits reveals the deeply ingrained influence of the Truss premiership on this government. They're paralysed by fear of the markets at a time when we need courage. @maxmosley.bsky.social writes for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

theguardian.com

Liz Truss is long gone – but her fiscal meltdown still dictates every step Labour makes | Max Mosley

A jittery No 10 now seeks the market’s approval for everything. The result? Cruel cuts and a fear of desperately needed public spending, says economist Max Mosley

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Tom Pollard @pollardtom.bsky.social · 06/07/2025

"the financial returns from well-targeted public spending are often far higher than our anaemic assumptions allow... A politics that always talks down the impact of spending ends up justifying stagnation" @neweconomics.bsky.social's @maxmosley.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

theguardian.com

Liz Truss is long gone – but her fiscal meltdown still dictates every step Labour makes | Max Mosley

A jittery No 10 now seeks the market’s approval for everything. The result? Cruel cuts and a fear of desperately needed public spending, says economist Max Mosley

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Max Mosley @maxmosley.bsky.social · 06/07/2025

Really grateful to have my first opinion piece published in the guardian: “Fiscal rules weren’t created by Truss, but their new totemic status in British politics was forged in the fire she left behind” www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

theguardian.com

Liz Truss is long gone – but her fiscal meltdown still dictates every step Labour makes | Max Mosley

A jittery No 10 now seeks the market’s approval for everything. The result? Cruel cuts and a fear of desperately needed public spending, says economist Max Mosley

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New Economics Foundation @neweconomics.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

Today is sad indictment of how we make policy in this country. Our view on the disability benefits cut vote.

"Today is a sad indictment of how we make policy in this country. Quote from Max Mosley, senior economist: We've ended up with a rushed and poorly designed set of reforms to disability benefits as a scramble to find government savings after GDP growth was lower than expected following the autumn budget. Something has gone seriously wrong here. How have we ended up in a world where 1 percentage point error in our GDP forecasts cascades down into pushing a quarter of a million people into poverty?"

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New Economics Foundation @neweconomics.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

“I think some MPs will rightly just be looking at this and saying, I don’t want to be a politician who is responsible for pushing anybody into poverty, let alone more than 150,000.” @maxmosley.bsky.social on today's vote on disability benefit cuts in @bigissue.com www.bigissue.com/news/politic...

bigissue.com

How did benefit cuts land Keir Starmer in such a dreadful mess?

Keir Starmer could be about to face his first defeat in parliament. But how did has disability benefits reform landed him in such a mess?

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Max Mosley @maxmosley.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

I can't think of a time in history where we could influence the lives of so many, overnight and at such a low cost. I spoke to LBC about why we should see removing the 2 child benefit cap as a wonderful opportunity 👇

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Reposted by Max Mosley

New Economics Foundation @neweconomics.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

"New Labour took 14 years and billions of pounds worth of policies to lift half a million children out of poverty. Keir Starmer could do the same overnight with one policy costing just a fraction of that." NEF's @maxmosley.bsky.social on @lbc.co.uk calling for removal of the two-child benefit cap.

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Tom Pollard @pollardtom.bsky.social · 15/05/2025

A stark example of this is the government's plan to cut PIP, claiming we "can't afford" the rapid rise in claims. But @maxmosley.bsky.social's analysis shows this rise has been fuelled by growing financial insecurity, which will be further exacerbated by cuts /9 neweconomics.org/2025/05/what...

neweconomics.org

What’s behind the rise in disability benefit claims?

Rising rates of disability colliding with greater financial hardship are pushing more people to seek support

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Max Mosley @maxmosley.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

We’re still only just learning about the true scale of the building crisis in PFI schools - worth reading this article covering the pretty extraordinary statements from officials at yesterday’s inquiry 👇

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Max Mosley @maxmosley.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

Encouraging to see our latest @neweconomics.bsky.social analysis quoted in Parliament today

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Cllr Salman Shaheen @salmanshaheen.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

There is an iceberg dead ahead. My colleague @maxmosley.bsky.social with his other hat on has spotted it. We can all see it. The government needs to change course now.

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Stefan Siebert @stefansiebert.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

Important thread about disability benefits that MPs & public urgently need to understand! <50% of disabled people claim benefits! More financial hardship = more need for fair claims. “unlikely the proposed tightening of eligibility for PIP will achieve much other than causing further hardship”

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On this basis, it seems unlikely that the proposed tightening of eligibility for PIP will achieve much other than causing further hardship for a group struggling the most since the pandemic. Link to the full @neweconomics.bsky.social analysis here:

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We found that on its own, the number of disabled people explains 71% of the PIP caseload in a particular region. But when we add each region’s relative deprivation using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) we can explain 94% of the regional PIP caseload

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But why do places like Buckinghamshire have less PIP claims than we’d expect? Buckinghamshire is a more affluent region so it’s possible that fewer disabled people in the region feel the need to claim disability benefits.

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In fact, we found that a regions disability prevalence is a very strong predictor a regions PIP claims, which means the system is targeting the areas it should

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So what’s driving the rise in PIP cases? Despite the concerns that the benefit is not accurately targeting disabled people, we looked across the country and found that actually it is

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One other way we can check if PIP claims are for the people it was intended for is by looking at the success rate for people applying for the benefit. If it’s rising this would indicate the system is becoming more lenient. But we find it’s fairly static

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But not all disabled people claim benefits - we estimate the take-up is likely under 50% So while disability claims are rising faster than disability rates, this may simply reflect more disabled people fairly accessing support, not because there’s anything wrong with the system

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A key part of the justification is that the rise in disability benefit claims (34%) is larger than the rise in disability (17%), which could mean the system is now too lenient.

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