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Max Dugan-Knight

@maxduganknight.bsky.social
5.4K followers 1.3K following 226 posts

📈 Data and climate guy 💼 Solutions Architect at Databricks 🇨🇦 based in Toronto ✍️ maxdk.substack.com also Arsenal ⚽️ and hip hop 🎧

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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Wow. I guess I should have thought of that but always a bit shocking when human activity supersedes a natural global cycle
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Fascinating. Why is that?
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Thanks for the great analysis and desperately needed source of optimism @kingsmillbond.bsky.social and Sumant Sinha.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
This is obviously a good thing for global emissions. It's also a good thing because it weakens the position of fossil exporters like the US eager to keep us trapped in fossil dependence. Those powers are losing the energy future despite their best efforts. The world is better for it.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
A lot of talk at various COPs has focused on whether rich countries will financially support poor countries developing cleanly rather than following the West along the "fossil detour". It turns out developing countries are taking the clean route *despite* rich countries' lack of support.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
That is genuinely great news. Pakistan is similarly embracing cheap solar and storage. www.volts.wtf/p/pakistans-... Countries developing now have access to clean energy tech at a price that beats out most fossil energy sources.
volts.wtf
Pakistan's solar boom
Pakistan's massive solar boom is creating a bottom-up energy revolution that could become the blueprint for developing nations worldwide.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
I'm as depressed as anyone about the US dropping all climate ambition but more important for global climate is which path countries like 🇮🇳 take en route to energy abundance. This @ember-energy.org analysis shows India is skipping the "fossil detour". ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
If that’s his territory so is 🇨🇦 just so we’re all clear up here
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
You’ve heard of shot / chaser but this Carney Trump speech combo is like a glass of red wine then a gallon of ammonia
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Just please for the love of god stay away from greenwood
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
100%. This is also why it’s so addictive. I’ve done this for hours on end because there’s something so tempting about trying just one more thing (without actually thinking about it) and the chance that it’ll all magically work.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
I'll keep posting here -- I still love this platform and community, but wanted a place for longer form thoughts and one where I could reach people in my life not on Bluesky (gasp). If you subscribe you may also get some bonus commentary on trends in data and AI.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Personal update time! I have a new job and a new Substack: maxdk.substack.com Job: I am moving to Databricks as a Solutions Architect. Substack: I want to keep thinking and writing about the data behind climate change and the tools we have to fight it. I'd love to have you follow along!
maxdk.substack.com
Max’s Substack | Substack
My personal Substack. Click to read Max’s Substack, a Substack publication. Launched 13 hours ago.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
To be clear, this "High-warming" scenario is where we're headed under our current emissions trajectory. Climate action is often presented as too expensive. But what's actually expensive is huge stock market losses and people losing their retirements. www.ortecfinance.com/en/about-ort...
ortecfinance.com
Pension funds face dual headwinds of shrinking growth and rising inflation amidst climate change
A failed low-carbon transition could cut global pension fund returns by 33% by 2050 if climate change follows its current trajectory.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
It's always refreshing to read analysis of a real risk that few are talking about. A new report from Ortec is more clear-eyed than most about institutional investors' dangerous exposure to climate risk. "A failed low-carbon transition could wipe 33% off pension fund returns worldwide by 2050".
Chart showing 33% pension losses by 2050 under "high-warming" scenario
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Hi @rutherdan.bsky.social I only just found this report and am loving the analysis. Did you by any chance make any of the data available? Specifically, I'm interested in Figure 6 and the two emissions trajectories. I would love to see the raw data if you've got it. Thanks!
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Got it! Thanks for the tip 🙏
Graph showing global temperature change from 1 year of emissions. The temperature impact is very persistent (1000+ years)
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
That is helpful thanks. I was just starting from a preindustrial equilibrium and not doing any differencing. Going to try your approach now
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Update: got it working. My results are not identical to Zeke's but close enough for my purposes. Thanks again
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Thanks @jgilligan.org I'm currently trying to replicate the simulation on my computer but am having a hard time getting the configs right. You don't have a working example script by any chance do you?
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
@hausfath.bsky.social do you by any chance have the raw model results for this plot handy to share? I'd love to use this in some visualizations. I'll accept csv, json, txt, google sheet, whatever! Thanks in advance 🙏
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
I sure did! Apologies
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
Also lots of people in high risk areas end up getting coverage from FAIR plans which end up being subsidized by the tax base i.e. everyone else. It’s a very precarious situation that is increasing costs for everyone.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
Malibu prices are indicative of a larger trend of gross overvaluation that does not consider climate risk or the fact that it’s increasing every year. There aren’t many who can afford to lose their house entirely.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
Thanks Kelly! Understood. If anything I’m even more concerned now about how poorly we all understand future climate risk
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
(sorry forgot link) www.moodys.com/web/en/us/ca...
moodys.com
Catastrophe Risk Modeling – Moody’s
Quantify and manage natural catastrophe risk with Moody's RMS catastrophe modeling solutions. Gain a deeper understanding of your portfolio's exposures.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Interesting! Thanks for clarifying @kellyhereid.bsky.social - that does feel like it is often mis-represented. I feel like I frequently see Cat models described as forecasting future events. Like Moody's does here. How near-to-present are we talking?
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
As I say in the article: "If insurance companies are worried, we should all be worried.” The rush to pay millions for these just-burned-down properties shows how ineffective the real estate market is at pricing climate risk today, and how painful it will be when that risk fully materializes.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Insurers have the most advanced modeling capabilities, the most up to date data, they are extremely financially motivated to accurately price risk, and as of this year in California they are allowed to use forward-looking predictive models (CAT models) to assess future wildfire risk.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Let’s ignore all of the data on increasing wildfire risk due to climate change and just look at insurers’ actions. Our June report found that home insurers in California are raising prices and abandoning homeowners in the highest risk wildfire zip codes. www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...
deepskyclimate.com
Insurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous Levels
The home insurance market is in a perilous position as record fire risk comes into view for the 2025 season.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
"Before the fires, it would not have been possible to buy on the beach in Malibu at a price this low". How you interpret this fact says a lot about how much attention you are paying to climate risk.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
But the difference between what the climate risk data show and what the other sources quoted in the article are saying is a perfect encapsulation of the madness in the US real estate sector right now.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
To be clear, the author Lauren Edmonds does a terrific job laying out the positions and making a complex topic clear. The different viewpoints are part of what make it a great article. And the other sources quoted come at this from a very different angle from me and have different backgrounds.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
It’s not often I strongly disagree with every other person quoted in an article in which I am also quoted. But I have to admit that’s true of this @businessinsider.com story that came out Sunday. www.businessinsider.com/malibu-ocean...
businessinsider.com
Empty lots in Malibu destroyed by the LA fires are now on the market for millions
Homes burned to the ground in Malibu during a wildfire seven months ago. The now empty lots are selling for millions.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Is it fair to say that the precipitation distribution is getting flatter — fewer days at the mean and more at the extremes at both ends (downpours and no rainfall) ? I have found your “hydroclimate whiplash” phrase to resonate really well fwiw
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
This confusion is part of why the obsession with global average temperature bothers me. Climate change is operating at the extreme ends of the distribution (temperature, precipitation, etc.) If you just look at the average you’re missing the biggest impacts.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
What hundreds of millions have experienced even if they live nowhere near these fires is the smoke 💨 Smoky air has real health effects. It also hints at a vicious cycle where climate change causes wildfires, and wildfires then emit enormous quantities of CO2 which contribute to climate change.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Hot and dry conditions have pushed risk to new levels and new parts of Canada 🥵 I'm particularly worried about worsening conditions in more densely populated areas like southern parts of BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.
Fire risk map of Canada showing FWI anomaly at mid-July point
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
In our spring report about the upcoming wildfire season we projected abnormally high risk in several parts of Western Canada 🇨🇦 But the fires so far have surpassed my expectations. Here's our latest update on wildfire risk in Canada www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/wildfir...
deepskyclimate.com
Wildfire risk escalates across Canada as summer conditions intensify
Canada is facing an unusually severe and widespread wildfire season, with hot, dry conditions fueling fires across western, central, and now eastern provinces—aligning with Deep Sky Research’s forecas...
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
But none of this is easy. Addressing climate change means making clear to everyone how it is already hurting people. Food scarcity is going to be a big one.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
This is one of those slow-moving trends with many input variables that's hard to directly attribute to climate change. If we struggle to connect deadly storms and flooding with climate change, helping the public understand how climate change is impacting food security will not be easy.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Pleased to see Deep Sky Research cited in this great article on an under-reported topic 🌽📉 “We’re losing 120 calories per person, per day, for every degree of global warming.” www.forbes.com/sites/felici...
forbes.com
The Crash No One Sees Coming: Food System Failure
Climate-driven food shocks pose a growing risk to global markets. As yields fall and insurance retreats, the next financial crash may start in the fields.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Our cited hurricane report found that extreme rainfall during hurricane season has become 300% more common and 33% more severe. Online version of article here: time.com/7289719/hund...
time.com
Why 'Hundred-Year' Storms Are Happening More Often Than That
Climate change is making uncommon events more common. Here's what a 1-in-100 year storm means.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
The deadly flooding in Texas this week makes the article's message even more important. Climate change is causing extreme weather events to strike more and more often. This is not an abstract, confusing climate science-y concept -- it is claiming lives today.
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
This may be very millennial of me. But a magazine feels like "real news" in a way that online articles still don't. So it was a bit shocking to see my research cited in TIME Magazine the other day.
TIME magazine article citing Deep Sky Research's hurricane reportFront cover of the TIME magazine edition
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
I was quoted in this article on UK heatwaves 🥵 The one we felt in Toronto last week was not much fun, but those temps in the UK would feel even worse bc of the infrastructure. We're all going to need some investment in climate adaptation!
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Great article from @pilitaclark.bsky.social out today on the potential for climate financial shock. www.ft.com/content/9e5d...
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
Scary to think what kids born in 2025 will consider normal... 😳
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
We're all getting used to warmer temperatures 📈 In the UK you hear a lot about the heat wave of 1976 but those temps would not have been out of the ordinary today. I'm quoted in this article which takes a broader view: uk.news.yahoo.com/heatwave-197...
uk.news.yahoo.com
How the infamous heatwave of 1976 compares to temperatures these days
Nearly 50 years ago, Britons suffered in a stifling drought that lasted weeks - but how do those temperatures stand up to today's?
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Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
Thanks @climateeconomics.bsky.social! 🔥 Only saw this now.
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