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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 20/05/2025

It is based on the impact assessments made opportunetily by DIT & DBT. For UK-Australia is £2.1bn, CPTPP is £2bn and UK-India is £4.8bn. The one for the EU is £9bn.

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 19/05/2025

By own accounts of HMG, the addition of the impacts in the #UK GDP by 2040 of the UK-Australia, accession to the CPTPP and UK-India will still be lower than the impact of the new agreement with the #EU.

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

I doubt Trump will extend a concession on a MFN basis without further negotiation.

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Retaliate is a terrible option. Better to increase integration and trade across the world without the US that will be detached fromthe rest of the world for a while.

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#Asian economies such as #srilanka #Bangladesh #Cambodia must work in increase further the regional integration particularly with #India and other partners.

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#Kenya, #Ethiopia and other African countries could benefit if they accelerate the implementation of the #AfCFTA and finalise the rules of origin on textiles and garments, facilitating backward linkages across the continent.

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The impact is not even across the world. So, some #African countries that currently export to the US might benefit as the differential tariffs with respect to the #Asian countries will increase.

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The US has large deficits with these countries because it has specialised on other products. Therefore, there is a mutually beneficial exchange to make. Unfortunately, neither Trump nor his advisors understand it. Higher prices and likely trade diversion for the US consumers.

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

Unsurprinsingly for everyone that has read Ricardo, the impact of the #Trump tariffs falls primarily on those countries with abundant manual labour (Asian countries) that has specialised in the production of garments, footwear and other light manufactures.

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Yes, that’s right. I just pointed that it is an instance of EU support to strategic technology. In reality, I only support my beloved Racing Club in Argentina; but as an adopted Brightonian, I had to defend the honour of the BHA

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

You have another example with the EU development of Galileo to compete with the GPS. As I Brightonian, I can say that at this very precise moment, there are other substantially less glamourous teams.

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Services trade data is somewhat imprecise if available.

The US could tight rules of origin in the USMCA, and US-Vietnam FTA and its GSP. It could, on these grounds, let AGOA expire at the end of this year. These appear as easier and more likely options with probably similar impact on China.

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And it will create in most local industries including textiles, garments, light manufactures, etc. A very complex political picture in each country.

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Why China Is Worried About Trump’s Tariffs on Mexico

Assuming countries want to continue playing by the rules, rising their MFN tariffs to restrict imports from China may put them at risk of being hit by the US reciprocal tariffs (although, we need to see what they mean)

nytimes.com

China’s exports to developing markets have soared, opening indirect routes to the U.S. market that officials in Beijing worry may be closed under pressure from President Trump.

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I heard that thanks to climate change, the South of England has now a better climate than Chapagne, France to produce sparkling wines.

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Most likely is that Trump aims to just bring back industries. The other objectives are through into the argument just to reinforce it, they could happen in isolation but not altogether.

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And, if tariffs are succesful in bringing industries back, then imports will fall. Then, it is very likely that revenue will fall as the taxable base is eroded.

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Tariffs cannot be applied once the ultimate objective (e.g. "stop flow of fentanyl") is achieved. Otherwise the other part will never acceed to anything if the tariffs is not mantained at the original level. Therefore, tariff revenue does not raise and industries are not coming back.

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

Also worth mentioning that the US economy is in full employment and labour participation, although not at its highest, it is not low. So, pressures on wages may mount. So, higher prices are more likely due cost increases rather than the direct effect from tariffs.

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Thinking on the Prisonners Dilemma, as it is and in the current context, the current rule-based system seems that it not preventing the world from landing in the non-cooperative equilibrium. Maybe reform is necessary to restore the cooperative scenario.

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

I wonder whether I am wasting my time in even giving any thingking to this stupid idea, but I wonder how actually reciprocal tariffs would work? Will the US need to define rules of origin to avoid trade being deflected even in cases where no FTA is in place?

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Economics textbook, yes; but also universally true. Not like every PE analysis that depends on getting the actors and their incentives right and making the right interpretation. There are too many unknowns leading to get everything wrong.

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

After breaking the #USMCA that he negotiated back in 2019, is there anyone still believing that having an FTA with the US is the way of being protected from #Trump tariffs? If so, please tell me what are you taking and where can I get some.

Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

Not to mention that retaliation is either discounted or disregarded at the time of imposing the tariffs by Trump and his followers, retaliation might provide some relief to those affected by tariffs only at the expense of EU consumers.

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Is retaliation the optimal policy response? Normally, it is not. It would be good to discuss why, in this case, it is.

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

But I also consider that before talking about exceptions, Trump may use tarifs as lever to negotiate trade agreements. Simple and quick goods-only agreements that give ranchers, farmers and firms in the US the market access abroad they want.

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

As President, Trump has a lot of discretionary power to modify the US GSP including/excluding beneficiaries and goods. So, an avenue for exceptions may come from here.

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Agree, but I wonder how is that freight rates can be sustained down when the costs are going up. Either the industry had hefty margins before that were eroded now or the adjustment has yet not happened.

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Absolutely. Open a vape shop or a tatoo parlour.

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Something is going on in Suez. In the week ending on 15 Dec 2023, 4.6 million metric tonnes (7-day moving average) transited thru the channel daily. Same week this year, is 1.170 million. Transit thru Cape of Good Hope up by 1.6 million between similar weeks. Longer distance, higher costs.

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There are so many... but I guess how easy is to find the UK at the bottom of any table of European countries in any economic/trade/investment dimension

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JmRoyle #LFC #YNWA #BLM #REJOINEU @myarrse.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

This is wrong. They don't even believe in what they sell. The rule says 'never consume your own product'.

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Reposted by Max Mendez-Parra

Should be in every newsagents window.

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Max Mendez-Parra @max-mp.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

To anyone that have not lived in the intelligence rollercoster in which the UK have been in the last 8 years, it is hard to explain why has the UK spent so much policy/negotiation bandwidth to be part of this.