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Mauro Gilli

@maurogilli.bsky.social
3.7K followers 825 following 387 posts

Professor of Military Strategy and Technology at the Hertie School in Berlin. Great powers rivalry, future of war, tech competition. Born 🇮🇹, 9y 🇺🇸, 9y🇨🇭, 🇩🇪 sites.google.com/site/maurogilli2

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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Interesting question. In case anyone can help.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Thansk Sam! I don’t use BlueSky much, I wrote a post about it here: www.linkedin.com/posts/mauro-...
linkedin.com
China Is Holding Sensitive F-35 Parts Diverted to Hong Kong | Mauro Gilli
China has reportedly got its hands on the cockpit canopy and a weapons-bay door of an Australian F-35. A few considerations on what that does, and doesn't, mean. An F-35's low observability rests on ...
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Christian Thiels @christianthiels.eurosky.social · 13/08/2026
"Messages shared in Moroccan social media groups have called for another attempt to enter Ceuta on Saturday, although it remains unclear who is behind them." @en.rfi.fr www.rfi.fr/en/internati...
rfi.fr
Morocco steps up border security over fears of new mass crossing into Ceuta
Morocco has stepped up security along its borders with the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla after fresh calls appeared on social media urging migrants to attempt another mass crossing, weeks afte...
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biologist077.bsky.social @biologist077.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Pancreatic cancer is so tough. But in an early trial, 7 of 8 patients (87.5%) who responded to a personalized mRNA vaccine + immunotherapy are still alive 6 years after surgery. It's designed to train the immune system to fight remaining cells. Promising, and worth attention.
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auonsson @auonsson.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
A UK P8 maritime patrol aircraft spent 6 hours finecombing SW Baltic Sea for enemy units, above and below surface, before command would let the ship ARK GERMANIA leave Køge port for a transport of military units across Baltic Sea. Another P8 covering ahead. Says something about threat level, innit?
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 31/07/2026
Interesting, though unsurprising
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Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 29/07/2026
France's Interior Ministry has ordered Ksenia Fedorova, former head of RT France, expelled from the country. It accuses her of acting "as a conduit for disinformation campaigns orchestrated by the Russian authorities" with the aim of "destabilizing the public order." www.france24.com/en/france/20...
france24.com
France orders Russian journalist Xenia Fedorova to leave country over alleged Kremlin propaganda
France has ordered Russian journalist Xenia Fedorova to leave the country, the interior ministry said on Wednesday, amid accusations that she spread Kremlin propaganda through French television and ra...
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
the ability to integrate thousands of interdependent elements into a system that operates reliably and at scale.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Our central argument is that imitating a complex system at the technological frontier means confronting countless potential points of failure, each with vanishingly small tolerances for error. Overcoming this challenge requires accumulated organizational capabilities—
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
On a personal and professional level, this article also returns Andrea and me to research we began in the late 2000s and early 2010s on technological complexity, first-mover advantages, and the challenges of imitation: direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu
Why China Has Not Caught Up Yet: Military-Technological Superiority and the Limits of Imitation, Reverse Engineering, and Cyber Espionage
Abstract. Can countries easily imitate the United States' advanced weapon systems and thus erode its military-technological superiority? Scholarship in international relations theory generally assumes...
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
- as well as foundational research on systems integration by Stefano Brusoni, Andrea Prencipe and the late Keith Pavitt whose subtitle still says it all "Why do firms know more than they make?" journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.2307/...
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The article builds on the work of many analysts and scholars. This includes the excellent books on ASML by René Raaijmakers and Marc Hijink - whose book contains a chapter on this very subject
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Recently, ASML has been a lot in the news. In a new article, we explain why concerns about industrial espionage, reverse engineering and talent poaching miss the critical challenge that the production of lithography machines poses: systems integration. tinyurl.com/3u79rj7e
tinyurl.com
ASML's Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography and the Limits of Reverse Engineering in China
In June, the U.S. Department of Commerce informed the Dutch company ASML that it suspects one of its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines has reached
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Joanna Bryson @j2bryson.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
"Vulnerability discovery is an orchestration problem: analysis, hypothesis generation, harness construction, execution, verification, and long-horizon memory. Block access to one model and the same workflow runs on another." should also apply to cybersecure #systemsEngineering #systemsAI?
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Joanna Bryson @j2bryson.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
“Clearview AI, which took advantage of a lack of regulations around biometrics and people's faces online to build a massive database,” really “took advantage of the BS GAFAM claims of self-governance” which @microsoft.com in particular trumpeted as demonstrating its #aiethics — indeed it did. 1/2
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Don't forget that some (pro-Russian charlatans) have been accusing Bellingcat of being a CIA-psyop.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Eh chi lo sa. La loro bussola è rotta…
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
As I argue, the longer the war drags on and the more launchers Iran loses, the more intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and strike assets will be concentrated on each remaining launcher — making an already difficult task even harder.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Flattered to be included in this detailed Financial Times article on the cat-and-mouse game between Israeli/US interdiction assets and Iranian ballistic-missile launchers. www.ft.com/content/b2b3...
ft.com
The hunt for Iran’s ballistic missile crews
Tehran’s missiles are key to its retaliation against Israel and the US. But launching them brings an immediate risk of death
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
With Andrea Gilli and Niccolò Petrelli, we discussed this and other problems in an article for Binding Hook last year: bindinghook.com/data-really-...
bindinghook.com
Data really is the new ammo
As Europe aims for defence sovereignty, access to US data remains a thorny topic.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
The problem with the F-35 (or, for that matter, with many modern weapon systems) is not necessarily only with updating the software but also with updating the library of enemy targets and signals, for which European countries do not have the means.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
The Dutch Defence Minister suggested on a radio interview that European countries can “jailbreak” an F-35 in case the US blocked software updates: “I'm going to say something I should never say, but I'll do it anyway. Just like your iPhone, you can jailbreak an F-35. I won't say more about it.”
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auonsson @auonsson.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Shadow tanker PEACE lacks safety management, insurance. She is flying a false flag of Timor-Leste where Timor-Leste demands of other states to stop her. She is lawless. Sanctioned by EU and UK. She is on her fifth delivery of Russian crude to India last 12m. She is leaving Baltic Sea laden now.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Thanks Joanna! I didn't know this book. I will look for it!
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Eliot Higgins @eliothiggins.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
For those keeping score, Bellingcat, The New York Times Visual Investigation Team, & Washington Post's Visual Forensic team have all published analysis showing the ICE shooter wasn't in the path of Renee Nicole Good’s vehicle when he shot her, contradicting statements by the President & his cronies
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Evidence coming up. Some of these systems however were in hangars. I assume we will know more soon.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Thanks Frank. I didn’t know it.
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Benjamin D Lane @slowtalking.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Fascinating air defense neutralization thread:
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Ok, I will finish it here. I hope it helps. Apologies for typos/bad syntax.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
On top of all the information that the US has been able to retrieve thanks to Ukraine, whether because of the air defense assets that the Ukrainian military managed to take, or because of the electronic intelligence the US and the Ukrainian military has been able to collect.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Of course, to accomplish these tasks effectively, a country needs to possess information on the enemy radar - specifically, on their waveform, modulation, etc. Well, here we know the US has been collecting these information for quite some time www.twz.com/air/rc-135-a...
twz.com
RC-135 Accompanied By Fighters Off Venezuela Testing Maduro's Air Defenses: U.S. Official
The flights are part of a massive U.S. military presence in the Caribbean aimed at putting maximum pressure on Venezuela's Maduro.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
For example, by generating a large amount of background returns (noise jamming), which impedes the ability to see an incoming aircraft; or by deceiving the system through the generation of false returns (spoofing); or through other means.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Such signals, in turn, can interfere with the capacity of adversary radar to detect threats (i.e., to capture radar returns and distinguish them from the background) in multiple ways.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Instead of relying on a physical obstacle, jamming and spoofing accomplish their goal by emitting electromagnetic signals of a very specific type.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Whereas a tunnel or an elevator leads to an accidental loss of signal, jamming and spoofing are intentional means aimed at degrading the performance of an adversary’s system.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
This occurs because a physical obstacle impedes the electromagnetic waves used for modern mobile communications from reaching the antenna of a smartphone. This example is helpful because radars also use electromagnetic waves, albeit at different frequencies and with different signal designs.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
One way to think about it is to consider interferences that obstruct mobile communications, such as when we enter a tunnel or an elevator and our smartphones lose coverage and hence cannot make calls or receive messages.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
This is why neutralizing enemy radars, and in particular any still active fire-control radars, is so important. And this is where electronic warfare comes into play.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Here a premise is needed. Radars are very effective for air defense because they allow long-range detection and ranging, they work day and night, (mostly) in all weather, they allow to discriminate between irrelevant objects and potential threats, and to identify the latter as such.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
With regard to electronic attacks, this is once again something that has existed for very long time and it refers to the use of electromagnetic signals for degrading enemy radars.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
You need to create a temporary "corridor" through which your aircraft (in this case: rotary-wing aircraft, or helicopters) could transit safely. More on this later.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
We know the US hit some targets in Venezuela with precision munitions, I haven't followed whether any of these was part of the air defense network, but I suspect at least some were. Important in this regard is that you don't need to strike the whole air defense network. www.twz.com/air/u-s-kami...
twz.com
Did The U.S. Use Kamikaze Drones To Strike Venezuela?
An unmistakable banshee-like wail is heard before detonations in videos taken on the ground during Operation Absolute Resolve.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
With regard to kinetic attacks, this is something that militaries have been doing since World War II: trying to either destroy enemy ground-based air defenses (radars, anti-air artillery, surface to air missile batteries, command and control centers, etc.).
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
I haven't read anything about other type of cyber attacks, but it would be surprising that the US hadn't also try to disable the air defense network itself - which the US has done since the 1999 war against Yugoslavia.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
We don't know much about the cyber attacks, but again this is not a surprise, as the US allegedly used it for the first time in 1999 against Yugoslavia. Apparently, the US shut down electricity/power generation to degrade part of the Venezuelan air defense network.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
According to available information, the US has used three main ways to disable Venezuelan air defenses: cyber attacks, kinetic attacks (precision missiles) and electronic (electromagnetic) attacks.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
In other words, air defense is a network, and the goal of suppression/destruction of enemy air defenses is to disable this network, ideally in multiple points. This is what Russia tried but failed to do in Ukraine. This is what the US succeeded in doing in Venezuela (and others).
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
As a result, air defenses generally keep fire-control radars switched off until they are ready for engagement. But this makes them dependent on early warning radars as well as on communication systems & command & control centers
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Conversely, fire-control radars provide the necessary resolution for engagement. To this goal, they operate at much higher frequencies (shorter wavelength). Because they need smaller antennas, these radars can also be mobile.
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
For some radars, such as early warning radars, giving up their location is an inevitable compromise: in order to cover very long ranges, these radars emit low frequency (long wavelength) signals. But long wavelength, in turn, require large antenna aperture. And hence, make them static.
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