iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

When the leopards are eating faces that look a lot like yours and there are very few faces left to eat.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The new Chunnel is going to be awesome.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Trump didn’t promise or pledge $5,000. What’s the right word for saying something you have no intention or history of following through on? Maybe “Trump Dangles $5,000”?

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Dave Rohde's work was also a foundation for a 2011 JOP article I wrote with Andrew O'Geen. Our point: "We would adjust CPG to say that leaders will use the powwer delegated to them in order to help (or hurt) a president from their (the opposition) party." www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1...

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Most presidents lose popularity --> fewer people identify with the president's party as they stay in office --> support for policies of the president's party go down. Is that what we've been calling thermostatic public opinion?

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Donald Trump also began telling the completely untrue story that he saw hundreds of Muslim Americans in New Jersey celebrating as the towers fell. He told that story so many times and it was such an obvious sign that he's not just a racist and a liar but a hate-monger. The media failed there too.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Has he ever admitted the truth of a fact that reflects badly on him?

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

For example, Texas exports $34.6B to Canada annually. Perhaps the 138,000 Texans employed in those businesses will trust a Senator Talarico to end the tariff war faster than Ken Paxton would. canada-in-usa.com/wp-content/f...

canada-in-usa.com

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Polls show Senate toss-up races in Iowa, Texas, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Michigan. Canadian retaliatory tariffs can target those states and hurt Republicans lots. Six year terms for Democrats there would mean impeachment trials and oversight in 2027 + a Dem majority on Jan. 6th 2029 and beyond.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Yes, it's all partisanship thinly disguised (Kramer 1983). But so will be the votes of today's don't knows. Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents will find their way back to the Republican candidate by November.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

On a morning with a -23,000 jobs report (and -103,000 in revisions), FoxNews leads with a headline of scary liberals and people of color setting things on fire. You have to scroll way down for the jobs news.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

NYT headline "Slow but Steady Jobs Market Faces its Latest Test" to describe a monthly report of -23,000 jobs and revisions of -103,000 jobs. The average over the last 12 months is +26,000 jobs. Biden's last 12 months averaged +121,000.

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Reposted by Matthew Lebo

Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 22/07/2026

A Practical Guide to Time Series Analysis by Suzanna Linn, Matthew J. Lebo and Clayton Webb We expand readers' knowledge of linear regression with detailed explanations and applications of key models used in time series analysis. 📚 cup.org/4upEZ3E

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Reposted by Matthew Lebo

Political Science - Western University @westernupolisci.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

American democracy is changing fast & and this fall you can study it as it happens. PS 2192A follows the 2026 Congressional elections in real time w/ expert insight from Prof @matthewlebo.bsky.social through asynchronous lectures & live weekly conversations. Politics, alive & unfolding.

A striking scene from a recent period of political unrest in the United States: a makeshift gallows erected near the Capitol, surrounded by demonstrators.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

That is quite the email teaser, Vox.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

How important is winning the Senate? The six conservative SCOTUS justices average 66 years old. With a Republican Senate, Alito (76) and Thomas (77) can retire and be replaced by Trump. Two new 50-yr old justices would bring that average down to 57 and there would be 5 Trump justices 61 or younger.

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Reposted by Matthew Lebo

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

Happening this Monday morning! If you want to move beyond basic graphs in Stata, I hope to see you there! @statacorp.bsky.social

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Reposted by Matthew Lebo

eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 24/05/2026

Cool paper. Perfect title work. people.tamu.edu/~kellstedt/A...

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

You can tenure clock with an H1B but tenure usually requires a green card. It’s a good time for countries who value science and immigrants to welcome nearly tenured faculty from US unis. US green card applicants will now have to return to home countries to apply www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

theguardian.com

US green card applicants will now have to return to home countries to apply, DHS says

Change criticized by advocates marks the latest significant move by the Trump administration on immigration policy

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

In this poll 21% of Republicans disapprove of Trump but only 4% say they'll vote Democrat. Also 73% of Independents (including leaners) disapprove but only 26% say they'll vote Democrat. Approval is not voting, it's especially not congressional voting.

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Reposted by Matthew Lebo

Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

I say without hyperbole that this is the most brazenly corrupt action in US Presidential history. That it does not immediately lead to impeachment is a dangerous sign of how far the rule of law has declined.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Spoiler alert: Cassidy will behave exactly the same as before.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

Also, add Puerto Rico and create Wyomontana.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

With 115,000 new jobs, the @nytimes.com today reports Trump's job market "Remains Solid." In August 2024, with the election coming, 142,000 new jobs meant hiring under Biden had "Shifted into Lower Gear." (The next month there were 254,000 new jobs in that lower gear).

NYT headline today that US economy added 115,000 new jobs. Graph of monthly change in jobs.

NYT headline August 2024 that US economy added 143,000 new jobs. Graph of monthly change in jobs.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

A reporter asked me why Americans are so angry at each other. I said Reps hates Dems because Trump tells them to and calls them treasonous. And Dems are angry at Reps for electing someone so awful. The reporter of course gave the decade old basket of deplorables comment equal time.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

Brought to you by the draft dodger who plays Fortunate Son at every rally.

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Reposted by Matthew Lebo

Ari Berman @ariberman.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

A Supreme Court where 5 of 6 conservative justices appointed by GOP presidents who initially lost popular vote & confirmed by senators elected by minority of Americans just effectively killed Voting Rights Act, country’s most important civil rights law. This is not democracy

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

DeSantis's new 24-4 map. Except for the humidity, it certainly reflects what Florida feels like.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

“Not passing the SAVE AMERICA ACT will lead to the the (sic) worst results for a political party in the HISTORY of the United States Senate”. If we let everyone vote we will lose big. MAGA.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

“President Confused about What’s Real” is an accurate headline here if the media cares.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

I started following @fintwitter.bsky.social recently. It has useful headlines but it delivers them a lot like me reminding my kid to take out the garbage.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Trump's approval is similar to GWB's in 2006 but the generic ballot in June 2006 (when GWB was at about 38%) was +11 for dems. Now it's +5. Partisanship and -ve partisanship are much stronger now. Many R disapprovers will remember who their team is when there's a D on a ballot.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

They knew New Coke was bad but they wanted people to forget what Coke tasted like so when they brought it back they could swap in corn syrup and everyone would still be grateful.

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Reposted by Matthew Lebo

ICPSR Summer Program @icpsrsummer.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

"Panel Data, PCSTS, and Long Time Series: The Essentials," covers challenges to inference and their solutions with temporal data. For more info: myumi.ch/dgZqj #SumProg26 #ICPSR #GraduateStudies #ProfessionalDevelopment #ResearchSkills

ICPSR Summer Program online workshop on Panel Data, PCSTS, and Long Time Series essentials from May 26 to June 5.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

The gravestone of every senator who voted to confirm Pete Hegseth should include that information.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Why can't you run with "Trump Pretends to Order DoorDash to Put on a Show with Actor"?

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

Yup, fund one big scientific lifeboat for USA’s mRNA researchers.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

The ICS ranges from 0-200. Republicans are way below where they were with Trump I and about where Dems were under Biden. Dems are even below where Reps were under Biden. Independents have never been lower. The ICS is full of partisanship but when so many things go badly, almost everyone notices.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

I guess this means a national sales tax in the U.S.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Donald Trump is the third most competent one in this picture to be president.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

A preview that when Trump is gone his Truth Social account will automatically send out racist messages every hour on the hour.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

It’s a good time to remember the Canadian researcher in your network and look into the Social Science and Humanities Research Council.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Today's NYT reports "Strong showing for job market" with 178,000 jobs, fewer than during 42 of Biden's 48 months in office. For comparison, August 2023 had 187,000 in job growth and the NYT headline was "U.S. Hiring Settles Into a Lower Gear."

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

ADP March Jobs report has 62,000 new jobs in the U.S. including the losses of 11,000 manufacturing jobs and 58,000 jobs in trade, transportation, and utilities. Tariffs are an economic disaster in the U.S. hidden by a so-far mostly resilient economy overall. adpemploymentreport.com

adpemploymentreport.com

ADP Employment Reports

The ADP Research Institute® works in close collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab and its experienced team of labor market researchers to publish employment reports.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

I like Morris's term "softer Trump disapprovers." That's the key group where Trump's approval varies, where he found the votes to get to 49.9% in 2024, & where the Republicans can hold onto the Senate. They hate the Dems more than they disapprove of Trump and that's what they revert to.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

For all the awful news in the last few months -- job growth ended, new war, shutdowns, ICE -- Trump is down 2% since early December. It won't just take more disasters to drive him lower but also for his voters who now disapprove to not revert back - they have to remember why to stay that way.

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

Just in: NYT now referring to some MAGA hack lawyers as "conservative legal experts."

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Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 29/03/2026

Donald Trump really could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and not lose any voters.

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