iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 06/10/2026

Kansas Senate is now a tossup according to @fiftyplusone.news. Alaska also hits 69% chance for the Democratic candidate Peltola to win (nice). 74% chance for Democrats to win the Senate, slightly down from a brief 76% chance last month.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 29/09/2026

Dios mio. 29% to 26 in just a single day. Also, Iowa is 2 or 3 points away from being recategorized as lean Democrat. And Kansas and South Carolina are nearly tossups. And this isn't even all of today's polls!

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 27/09/2026

Republicans fall to the 20s for the first time in the @fiftyplusone.news Senate forecast. I don't know if they'll get below the teens before Election Day but they've never had a winning streak so far. It's incredible.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 23/09/2026

Texas is now Lean Democrat according to @fiftyplusone.news, for the first time this cycle. There is now only one tossup state: Iowa, which has Democrat Turek at a 55% chance to win. At 60% or more, Iowa goes Lean Democrat. Overall odds in the Senate are still 68% chance for Dems to win.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 22/09/2026

Model update from @fiftyplusone.news: Democrats have a 68% chance to take the Senate, up from 64% to 65% in recent days. It is now most likely that Democrats flip 2/4 of the battleground states, and flipping all four is likelier than flipping one or none. House at 98% for Dems.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 16/09/2026

For the first time, FiftyPlusOne shows the Alaska Senate race as lean Democrat. Texas is probably not far behind. Democrats are up to a 65% chance to take the Senate.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 11/09/2026

From 59% to 62% in the span of a few hours. Absolutely insane.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 10/09/2026

Also, House Republicans are incredibly cooked. FPO is at 94% chance for Democrats to win with Missouri's 7R-1D map, which has been overturned in favor of the 2022 map that will go either 6R-2D or 5R-3D. The tossups are Trump +10 territory, and even if every single one goes red, Democrats still win.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 10/09/2026

Alaska and Texas are about to join Ohio in the lean Democrat category on the FPO Senate model. Turek, the Democratic candidate in Iowa's Senate race, is also slowly approaching the tipping point. fiftyplusone.news/forecast/sen...

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 08/09/2026

Okay they kind of cooked with this guy's face.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 05/09/2026

For the first time this cycle, @fiftyplusone.news moves Ohio from tossup to lean Democrat in its Senate forecast. Overall odds of Democratic Senate is 58%, up from 55% when the model launched last month. I've been refreshing the forecast every single day hoping this would happen.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 03/09/2026

Oh my god he's literally this meme. A literal walking meme.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 14/08/2026

If you're worried that you're spending too much money on RAM right now, you should see how much I spent in 2018. This kit is less than half the price today than it was almost a decade ago.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 29/07/2026

Wild roller coaster to end the day. Really seemed like for a moment there that the indexes would be flat or even slightly up. Both the S&P500 and NASDAQ are back to where they were in April-May. I doubt the slide stops here.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 28/07/2026

It is crazy to see companies like Dell down over 10% this morning, but keep in mind what it looks like compared to the past five years. We have a long way to go if this is truly a bubble, and the decline for AI stocks will probably take months and not just a day or two.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 02/07/2026

"Hide my email" Looks inside Shows my email.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 27/06/2026

I'm having an existential crisis now wondering if I have any original opinions at all.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 22/06/2026

ChatGPT says it's raining. Looks outside. Sunny.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 24/05/2026

This is how Bazzite describes Bazzite. I don't see the part where it says "noobs stay out!"

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 24/05/2026

What really compounds this issue truly is how hostile some of the more vocal Linux community members are. When I'm critical of Windows or a company like AMD or even a political figure, I do not get as much attention as I do when I talk about issues I have on Linux. I had three Linux PCs once!

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 22/05/2026

Apparently a bunch of words trigger this kind of response, including redo, delete, help, and these others I've attached. For some reason it was really focused on where I live. Also RIP pulling up definitions from Google, it was a nice feature.

Google search: save

AI Overview: It looks like you might have accidentally hit send or are looking for assistance on how to "save" something. Since you are in Knoxville, TN, here are a few ways I can help you save time, money, and information:

Google search: great

AI Overview: Glad to hear it! How can I help you out today? Whether you need to grab the latest local news in Knoxville, check the weather, look up some info, or plan something out, just let me know and we can get started!

Google search: quickly

AI Overview: You said "quickly," which is exactly what I'm here for! Since you didn't specify a topic, let me know what you need help with in the Knoxville area, and I can give you instant details on local weather, restaurants, or events. How can I assist you today?

Google search: lol

AI Overview: Whether you meant "laugh out loud" or the MOBA game League of Legends, I'm right here with you! What's sparking the reaction? Let me know what you're up to today.

If you are currently on the Rift and trying to secure a win:

Check out these quick gameplay moments for some inspiration:

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 08/04/2026

Yahoo email's custom AI summarize tool Yahoo Scout once again was used to try and launder a scam into my inbox. Scout, which you can't turn off as far as I can tell, credulously tells me that I bought some Bitcoin but if I didn't authorize it, there's this number I can call. Amazing.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 08/04/2026

Oh add lifting sanctions on Iran, letting them pursue nuclear technology, and giving up the Strait to that list. Any hopes that Iran would become a more free society any time soon are dashed. We completely lost this war, and Trump's threats were the last whimper of a failed campaign.

Iran claims victory, says it forced US to accept 10-point plan
By Michael Rios

Iran says it has achieved a great victory and forced the United States to accept its 10-point plan, according to a statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

As part of the plan, the US has in principle agreed to lift all primary and secondary sanctions against Iran, the council said.

It has also agreed to accept Iran’s nuclear enrichment and recognize its continued control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to the council.

“The enemy, in its unfair, unlawful, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat,” the statement read.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 03/04/2026

Oh my god this gif I have had on my PC since 2015 for some reason is finally relevant.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 02/04/2026

Just noticed today that short interest in the Nasdaq 100 (or at least the QQQ ETF based on the Nasdaq 100) is steadily creeping upwards and is nearly 10% when two months ago it was 7%. By contrast the Vanguard S&P500 ETF VOO is at practically no short interest. Not a good sign for tech stocks.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 18/03/2026

New corrected DLSS 5 demo images have been added, including that really infamous one of Grace from Resident Evil, and unsurprisingly the end result is much better. DLSS 5 is still changing the color of her lips quite a bit but I don't know if it looks like lipstick anymore. DLSS 5 vs. correction.

A visual comparison of Grace from Resident Evil Requiem with DLSS 5 enabled on the left and a color corrected version on the right.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 16/03/2026

It is fucking insane to see that this is the trending list right now.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 19/02/2026

This poll is so damning. 40% of people think Trump is the country's worst President. Worse than both AJs, worse than Buchanan, worse than Nixon, worse than Dubya... 2026 is about to be a rerun of 2006. www.yahoo.com/news/politic...

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 19/02/2026

Then there's stock price strength, which is the ratio of stocks at their 1-year peek vs. stocks at 1-year lows. This is the highest it's been in a year, but keep in mind that tons of stocks were at 1-year lows in April during the crash. I suspect this graph will look very bad in May. 6/8

Stock price strength, which measures 1-year highs vs. 1-year lows, and it's at the highest it's been in the past year.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 19/02/2026

Two indicators are positive, one being stock price breadth, which basically tells you how many stocks closed in the positive versus in the negative. This does mean if tons of stocks are very slightly up in a day but a few key stocks are very negative that we'd get a good reading here. 5/8

Stock price breadth, which is considered good right now.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 19/02/2026

The put-to-call ratio is also rising, this is basically contracts to sell or buy stocks. It is at .88 today, meaning there are almost as many puts (sells) as calls (buys). It spiked to .82 in November when the S&P500 slid ~5%, and the last time it was .88 was in April during the tariff crash. 4/8

The put-to-call ratio in the past year, showing a spike of .88 lately which is the highest since the tariff crash of April 2025.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 19/02/2026

There's also the VIX, which tracks market volatility (basically if the vibes are bad), and it's up. What's particularly interesting is that it's been above the 50-day average for 3 weeks but hasn't exactly spiked. This is unlike what we've seen in the past year. The 50-day average is also up. 3/8

The VIX index and its 50-day average, which shows that the VIX has been above its 50-day average for nearly three weeks straight.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 19/02/2026

You can also see stocks doing poorly in the stock vs. bonds graph. You'd expect in an economy where interest rates are going down and AI hype is everywhere that stocks would be doing great, but they really aren't, especially since the start of the month. It's not because bonds are doing great. 2/8

Stock versus bond performance, which shows that in February bonds are doing slightly better for investors.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 19/02/2026

We're about to see a really nasty day for the stock market I bet. CNN's Fear and Greed tracker is flashing some warning signs... First, the S&P500 and its 125-day average. You can see there's basically no growth there at all, and if the blue and orange lines cross, it's a downturn. 1/8

The S&P500 versus its 125-day moving average, which are nearly identical currently.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 05/02/2026

For people who don't use Yahoo email, this is what it looks like when a scam attempt gets through the filters. The AI summary thing that you can't turn off does overtime trying to convince you this shit is real. Someone needs to look into whether LLMs have made scamming people easier.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 12/12/2025

Guys my wife bought so many garlic knots at Kroger that they sent us a coupon for a free box. We're a top customer. I've never seen this before.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 05/11/2025

I don't buy that it was just Atlanta. Look at last night District 2 (left) vs. 2020 round 1 for District 4 (right). Atlanta definitely got bluer but so many counties flipped Democrat that there's one contiguous blob down the center of the country. There's a big turnout question here.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 21/08/2025

This laptop doesn't come with a 2230 standoff for me to install my MP600 Core Mini 2TB. No problem, I can make my own!

Moron superglues a standoff screw into a laptop motherboard.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 19/08/2025

Google AI says this as the first result is literally Notebookcheck's page for the 840M, a very real GPU.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 30/06/2025

I feel so sorry that Pennsylvania has Fetterman representing them. He's complaining about missing his vacation due to a bill that may impoverish and kill hundreds of thousands of his constituents. He should resign if he wants to go on that vacation so bad.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 29/04/2025

Looks like a recession: Atlanta Fed's final forecast for Q1. It's down and down hard. Good to keep in mind that Q1 only covers the first two months of Trump 2.0, so if this is what it looks like before the Liberation Day tariffs went into effect, imagine what it'll look like after.

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Matthew Connatser @matthewconnatser.net · 27/04/2025

Another problem with AI being used for creating summaries: if bad info goes in, bad info comes out. Yahoo confidently told me I got an email about how my PayPal account has been suspended for an "unauthorized transaction." The problem is that this is a phishing email.

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