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Matt Kerlogue

@matt.kerlogue.co.uk
238 followers 267 following 257 posts

Freelance data/numbers/pretty charts, typically in #rstats. He/him, alphabet mafia type 🏳️‍🌈, SE London. github.com/mattkerlogue matt.kerlogue.co.uk

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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 15/10/2026
After almost two decades of not cycling in London, I recently started again. The introduction of cycle-friendly infrastructure like this is definitely a help. But I've also been shocked by the complete disregard for courtesy towards pedestrians so many cyclists (especially Lime-bikers) have.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 12/10/2026
I’ve only just noticed that the person in the calendar debacle is called Kitty and that the commenter saying that a perk of having a boyfriend is having access to tents is also called Kitty… is this the same person???
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 09/10/2026
If only they had some underutilised car parking spaces they could repurpose… 😅
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 09/10/2026
The change over at Kings Cross to St Pancras is pretty easy tbh. Both are relatively nice stations nowadays given their respective upgrades. You'd have to go to St Pancras anyways to get the high speed to Ashford.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 09/10/2026
The lack of an HS1-HS2 interconnection is probably the real long-term problem, because then you could have run some international services out to Old Oak Common and turned it into something even more like Marne-la-Valée.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 09/10/2026
Ashford's only connection options are: the javelin to StP which unless you want Ebbsfleet or Stratford or the Kent Coast why switch over, or services into London Bridge/Victoria which again unless you want certain Kent/Sussex or SE London choices why switch there?
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 09/10/2026
Beyond its larger local catchment with outer SE London as well as Kent as Essex, a Crossrail connection at Ebbsfleet would give a more seamless journey to Canary Wharf/City of London, Heathrow, HS2 (via Old Oak Common) and the West of England.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 09/10/2026
Interesting. From an infrastructure perspective I completely see why Ashford is the more logical case. But I still think Ebbsfleet (if it gets connected to crossrail) is the better choice both in terms of potential passengers and connectivity-wise in the long run.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 09/10/2026
I remember the first time I saw a Palantir presentation, and I was so surprised, *this* is what you're all excited about, just give statisticians and data scientists already in the civil service a bit more resource (people & time) and access to the right tech and we'd be able to do this ourselves.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/10/2026
Ebbsfleet with an extension of the Elizabeth Line (including some faster limited stop services between there and Stratford) feels like it would be the most sensible option.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 06/10/2026
Sounds about right. Going back to your original post, I suspect most British kids reaction to a tree growing in their classroom is to etch rude messages/images into it 🤣
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 06/10/2026
Are you forgetting that riot/protest is an integral part of the French people’s genome?
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 29/09/2026
I like how they look like Petri dishes, I assume that was the intention.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 25/09/2026
Similarly, I enjoying reading random wikipedia pages and spotting a chart in them that's obviously a ggplot().
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 11/09/2026
Great advertising here on @theguardian.com, nicely reminding one just how much the "AI in absolutely everything" trend is enshittifying the world.
Screenshot of an article on The Guardian… largely hidden by oversized ads for "Microsoft Excel with Copilot" (screenshot 1 of 2)Screenshot of an article on The Guardian… largely hidden by oversized ads for "Microsoft Excel with Copilot" (screenshot 2 of 2)
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 09/09/2026
Option C is what I've typically gone with, makes it clear that (a) its something you're doing in the code, and (b) that what you're doing in code requires a character scalar/vector.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 09/09/2026
It’s only causal inference if it comes from the Inférènce region of France, otherwise it’s just a sparkling correlation.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
I haven’t seen anything from the UK about the voting intentions of our police (admittedly it might be possible from BES data), and I don’t want to make baseless claims but I have to admit I wouldn’t be shocked if support for Reform was higher than their average level of support.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
This reminds me somewhat of polling I saw from France about how the highest support by occupation for the FN/RN was from the French police.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Haha. Loving the candle in the TNG pic, ifykyk 😏
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
But ultimately it shouldn’t have taken as long as it did. I hope in due course PACAC/PAC find out why it took so long. One can only assume there was at least one prior process that ultimately didn’t find someone suitable.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Anyways, that aside, it’s not difficult to design a selection system that can select for both technical and leadership skills. This might/should (?) take longer than selecting a new PM (systems which pretty much only selects for a specific set of people/leadership skills).
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
I don’t subscribe to the idea that data geeks aren’t good people-people. But I also don’t think we’ve got a system that actually promotes those sorts of folk to the top.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
But what about the individual charged with upholding the integrity and quality of the UK’s official statistics. Here we definitely need to have a process that selects for someone who is both technically suitable but also a good leader.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
While I agree with rank and file member involvement in political leadership contests, I do think our contests have been too long. And, I have a lot of time for arguments that for parties in government, ultimate choice should rest with MPs.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
To be fair we also need to consider the NatStat side too. There was a considerable period of internal consensus that a leadership change before there was a vacancy. So the actual comparable time of “leadership problem” is longer than the official period of interregnum.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Similarly, Starmer after this year’s local elections in May it was clear he had to go but it wasn’t clear when he’d actually go. It was somewhat dependent on when it would become clear what Burnham wanted to do and the way the party wanted to go.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
We could (and most likely would) use the PM’s speech outside no10. But going back to our examples the lame duck period for some started earlier. For May and Johnson there were considerable grey periods where it was all but assumed they’d resign but it hadn’t been said.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Coming back to the calculation in question, since UK’s constitutional settlement does not permit the role of Prime Minister to be vacant, we may also need to define a ‘lame duck’ period. A period where the incumbent has announced an intention to resign but hasn’t technically resigned.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Starmer (cont): The party ultimately opted not to have a contest. At least unlike the Democrats and their choice re Biden/Harris, Burnham in theory has a fair bit of time to prove himself and I don’t think most of the party is hankering for any more internecine warfare.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Starmer (cont): Denying Burnham the right to stand in the Gorton by-election most likely is the turning point for the party. But that either choice would result in his downfall, all that decision did was adjust the speed at which it happened.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Starmer: Like May I think theres been external views that he’s not up to the job for a while, let’s say mid-2025 to be charitable. But many of those saying so also acknowledged uncertain about the successor, largely (but not exclusively) who’s the alternative to Wes.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Sunak: I don’t think the GE was itself that much of a referendum about Sunak himself, unlike some GE’s that are about the PM/potential PM. Had he had more time might he have been had to resign? We can’t know for certain, but probably, the Tories had got addicted to premiericide by this point.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Truss: This is perhaps the easiest to calculate, given the connection to that mini-budget. But what about the official mourning period when in effect she couldn’t really do anything. This time they did at least manage to compress the timetable for the contest.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Johnson (cont): But the standards inquiry forced the party’s hand and it became untenable to keep him. Again a lengthy contest to succeed him.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Johnson (cont): The party had no idea about who credible potential successors were let alone consensus views about the credibility of any of them. I’d even go as far to say that the party itself never came to a consensus position that he had to go.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
Johnson: Where to start? There are many possible points at which an external person might say he’d demonstrated his incompetence to be PM. Some may even reference points that predated his time in parliament.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
May (cont): The contest to replace May dragged on for ages. They could have designed a quicker system but they didn’t. How should we account for this time in any calculations. Because until we know who the successor is, May can’t technically resign as PM.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
May (cont): However while there was a strong Boris wing, there wasn’t a consensus view within the parliamentary party that he should be successor.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
May: In not retaining the majority, the 2017 GE was clearly the start of the end for her. But it wasn’t really until late 2018/early 2019 that things became untenable and it was clear the party wanted to get rid of her.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
There’s also the question of how long the party takes to identify and formally appoint a successor. Let’s consider our recent slew of prime ministers. In all of these “party” means the parliamentary party not the wider membership.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
But external assessments vary and so too their influence on the party in power.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 08/09/2026
So it really depends on what you define as the threshold event for when it become necessary for a PM to resign. Different folk have different takes. The political pressure for a PM to resign (ie from the party in parliament) typically lags external assessments of their need the need to resign.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 02/09/2026
Indeed. As with so many things on the internet, the furries were a significant contingent of Bluesky's early adopters.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 27/08/2026
If he is, then I hope there's a moment during an outside task where he's soaked through with rain, out of earshot of the others and looking forlorn says to himself: "I've become a Traitor by mistake". BAFTA material for sure.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 26/08/2026
#rstats code here: github.com/mattkerlogue...
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 26/08/2026
Interestingly (for me) the second most mentioned state was California. Not a state I actively associate with country music.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 26/08/2026
Seems rather serendipitous that this week’s #tidytuesday topic is on country music given the passing of Dolly Parton yesterday. Also seems somewhat apt that her home state of Tennessee was the most mentioned state in top 30 country music songs.
A map of the contiguous US states highlighting those that were mentioned in songs in the Billboard Country Airplay Top 30 between 2014 and 2019, based on data collated and published by Grady Smith on YouTube. 16 states in total were mentioned in 67 songs. Tennessee was mentioned in 13 songs, California in 10 songs, Alabama and Georgia were mentioned in 8 songs each, and Colorado was mentioned in 5 songs. 5 songs mentioned Carolina but none qualified whether they were talking about North or South Carolina.
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 25/08/2026
Your iPad students might also find the webRios iPad/iOS app useful, especially just general exploration/playing around in R (there's also an Android equivalent). webrios.caffeinatedmath.com
webrios.caffeinatedmath.com
webRios - R on iOS – webRios
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 19/08/2026
Haha. I’d never thought of rain over the sea/ocean as being wasted before… but you’re sort of right.
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