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US considers easing Russia sanctions as Ukraine braces for tough winter
The United States is preparing to ease some sanctions against Russia while simultaneously pressuring Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries, according to an analytical report by RBK-Ukraine that cites unnamed sources. Experts predict that the winter of 2026–2027 could be the most difficult since the start of the full-scale war.
One source within the Ukrainian authorities told RBK-Ukraine that the progression of events does not depend on the season, but rather on the pressure placed on Russian leader Vladimir Putin—pressure the source claims the US side is unwilling to exert. According to this source, the United States is currently demanding that Ukraine stop attacking Russian oil refineries, without offering anything in return. "They are preparing new measures to lift sanctions on Russia," the source said. He added that these measures pertain to sanctions on tankers, gas, and potentially certain companies and individuals. The source also claimed that US officials are considering ways to gain control over frozen Russian assets.
RBK-Ukraine reported that some sources believe the upcoming winter could be the hardest yet for Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war. The sources say the Kremlin is betting that strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure will inflict greater pressure than Russian military advances at the front. This, they said, explains why Moscow is reportedly unwilling to agree to any real truce over energy infrastructure.
Some sources argued that Ukraine's main objective will be to make it through the winter. If Russia's campaign against the energy sector fails to deliver the Kremlin’s desired results, new opportunities for negotiation could open for Ukraine and its partners in the spring. With the end of heating season, Russia's key leverage will temporarily lose some of its effect, which may force Moscow to reconsider the costs of continuing the war. However, other sources said they do not expect any major shifts in the spring. In their view, Russia is capable of causing significant damage to Ukraine’s rear but cannot achieve a decisive breakthrough at the front. The sources believe the Kremlin is currently unable to impose its territorial demands by force and is also not showing readiness to revise those demands.
Despite a week of public exchanges between Kyiv and Washington, RBK-Ukraine reported, informal diplomatic efforts continued behind the scenes. The Ukrainian side, for example, proposed holding another meeting in Europe while Volodymyr Zelensky was visiting. One informed source said that if a meeting with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner could be arranged, Ukraine might try to raise the issue of drones with the US.
At the same time, RBK-Ukraine assessed that it is too early to talk about any significant warming in US-Ukrainian relations. A senior Ukrainian official told the outlet that efforts are continuing to find solutions that would provide Ukraine with genuine security guarantees after the war. According to this source, no state is currently prepared to offer Ukraine such guarantees: all are ready to act as mediators, but not as guarantors. Accession to the European Union—with access to reconstruction financing—could serve as a potential guarantee, the source said. However, as demonstrated by this year’s experience, Ukraine found it impossible to negotiate accession behind closed doors without the approval of EU member states.
RBK-Ukraine reported that European diplomats in contact with Ukraine emphasize that war assistance and EU accession are different issues that should not be conflated. Some sources pointed out that even if Ukraine makes it through the winter, there may not be any new factors by spring allowing Kyiv and Moscow to break the deadlock. The sources noted that "fresh ideas" that occasionally emerge in negotiations often amount to rehashing previous proposals, such as the creation of a demilitarized or free economic zone in Donbas—a solution already discussed in the past. Other ideas, such as US proposals to resume sales of Russian gas to Europe, are fundamentally unacceptable to one or more parties involved.
One informed interlocutor told RBK-Ukraine it is currently difficult to imagine any agreement where Ukraine would concede territory or recognize its loss, as that would trigger a chain reaction leading to further losses. He said that neither Ukraine nor its partners have a plan to end the war, and Russia does not want one. In his view, Putin’s goal remains unchanged: a neutral status for Ukraine and Western recognition of Ukraine as being within Russia’s sphere of influence.
US President Donald Trump previously authorized Russia to sell diesel fuel on the world market despite a ban in place since the start of the full-scale war. Zelensky reacted by calling this "a weak decision by strong partners" and "an obvious show of weakness that benefits Russia." Afterwards, the US president threatened to cut off Kyiv’s access to intelligence if attacks on Russian refineries did not stop. Trump has also proposed that Ukraine change its president and hold elections. In response, Zelensky suggested that Trump try to persuade Putin to agree to a 60-day ceasefire during the election campaign. However, experts say holding elections at this time would be impossible.
