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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 8h

Glucksmann has successfully led the socialist party in European elections in the past. A central point of his current political platform and identity is to reject any alliance with Mélenchon's party. As a result, he is considered too far to the right by many left-wing voters.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 8h

All candidates running in the socialist primary had committed to supporting whomever is elected. Three of them publicly said they would after the results. Ségolène Royal (defeated 2007 pres. candidate), who received 7.62% of the vote, gifted us a show of sore loser-ness:

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 8h

Raphaël Glucksmann was elected in the Socialist Primary two days ago. The line-up is getting more stable so I am removing from the forecast most options. You can now just toggle whether Philippe is running alone, or both Philippe and Attal.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 8h

Forecast updated: www.martindevaux.com/forecast/ Mélenchon is catching up to Philippe in the first round. He is not doing better against Le Pen in the runoff, so the net effect is a higher probability of win for Le Pen.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It looks like things could benefit the left if the movement remains popular among the general public. In the past, such movements have become unpopular when more violent fringe groups (often not from the core group itself) start to engage with cops or damage public property.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Macron and Lecornu in particular have to balance potential concessions to the movements with a worsening public debt crisis. This is happening precisely at the time of the year Prime Minister Lecornu is attempting to pass a budget, which was a mess last year.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The situation is tricky for the right (Macron, Republicans, RN): on the one hand, no one wants to be associated with cops beating up kids. On the other hand, they have for years been battling each other to claim the "law and order party" label.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Mélenchon's party shares the movement's concerns and is trying to benefit from it. Conservatives have accused him to fan the flames at the cost of public safety, so he has reportedly elected officials from the party to now protest without clear party signs.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

2. There is a wave of protests happening right now, whose most visible front is high-school blockades (www.nytimes.com/2026/10/06/w...). There have been dozens of reported instances of police violence against minors, which is creating tension.

nytimes.com

Protests Spread Across France, Growing From School Demonstrations

The rallies are a test of the strength of the student-led protest movement that has escalated at French high schools since late September.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It will be interesting to see if Marine Le Pen uses this to her benefit in within-party politics.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Some analysts say this could chip away at the "normalization" of the far-right party. I am not sure "normality" is salient in anyone's voting decision these days, but some moderate/undecided voters may be affected.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Some updates about the race: 1. @mediapart.fr released captures of private messages from 2013 in which RN President Jordan Bardella makes nasty antisemitic statements. He is suing the outlet and saying it is al false.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Forecast updated (www.martindevaux.com/forecast). Mélenchon is now battling Philippe quite seriously in the first round. The prediction depends strongly on whether Attal stays in the race, but also on whether the feeling that Philippe's moment has passed is confirmed.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It seems to me that on the left, a lot lies in Mélenchon’s willingness to moderate his platform to appeal to the mainstream left. He might want to do so to avoid impossible runoff odds, but likely fears that it would cost him support among his uncompromising supporters.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Is this a temporary setback or the start of a dip in Philippe’s runner-up moment? Also curious to see whether the outcome of the Socialist primary changes anything to the campaign dynamic, though I have no reason to believe it would significantly do so.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Mélenchon’s performance is also down. His runoff polling against MLP is at 31-69. Despite celebratory tweets from Mélenchon’s France Insoumise party, Le Pen therefore seems to be the only one really benefitting from this trend.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

A new poll by Harris Interactive finds that Mélenchon beats Philippe in the first round across candidate line-ups (including one without Attal). Philippe also does worse against MLP in the runoff, suggesting a real decline in support.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Updated. At this stage of the race (i.e., unless his runoff polling improves), the main impact of a better first-round performance by Mélenchon is to reduce the probability that Philippe (or anyone for that matter) wins against Le Pen.

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Updated with the two-center-candidate line-up. www.martindevaux.com/forecast/

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Update (www.martindevaux.com/forecast/)

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

I made a Bayesian poll-aggregation forecast model for the 2027 French presidential election: martindevaux.com/forecast/ This is work in progress, feedback and suggestions appreciated.

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