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Martin Devaux

@martindevaux.bsky.social
97 followers 192 following 10 posts

Postdoctoral Associate at Yale ISPS

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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A new poll by Harris Interactive finds that Mélenchon beats Philippe in the first round across candidate line-ups (including one without Attal). Philippe also does worse against MLP in the runoff, suggesting a real decline in support.
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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Updated. At this stage of the race (i.e., unless his runoff polling improves), the main impact of a better first-round performance by Mélenchon is to reduce the probability that Philippe (or anyone for that matter) wins against Le Pen.
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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Updated with the two-center-candidate line-up. www.martindevaux.com/forecast/
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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Update (www.martindevaux.com/forecast/)
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Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
I made a Bayesian poll-aggregation forecast model for the 2027 French presidential election: martindevaux.com/forecast/ This is work in progress, feedback and suggestions appreciated.
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