Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 28/09/2026A new poll by Harris Interactive finds that Mélenchon beats Philippe in the first round across candidate line-ups (including one without Attal). Philippe also does worse against MLP in the runoff, suggesting a real decline in support. 100
Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Updated. At this stage of the race (i.e., unless his runoff polling improves), the main impact of a better first-round performance by Mélenchon is to reduce the probability that Philippe (or anyone for that matter) wins against Le Pen. 010
Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Updated with the two-center-candidate line-up. www.martindevaux.com/forecast/ 020
Martin Devaux @martindevaux.bsky.social · 07/09/2026I made a Bayesian poll-aggregation forecast model for the 2027 French presidential election: martindevaux.com/forecast/ This is work in progress, feedback and suggestions appreciated. 0103