iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 26/09/2026

"Hypernormalisation in the online realm describes the process by which we grow increasingly stylised (paradoxically, by attempting to sound increasingly like ourselves) through the act of conforming with “correct” beliefs and “correct” communication norms." cracksinpomo.substack.com/p/living-in-...

"Hypernormalisation as described here denotes a curiously ineffectual state of helplessness and self-pity. The hypernormalised individual withdraws into self-dramatising poses of paralysis (I’m so scared and I can’t move”) while awaiting validation by the arrow of history, which bends inevitably towards progress. All unhappiness can be attributed to the fact that the political opposition exists, as though they were the only obstacles standing between us and the fulfilment of our desires. Opponents come predefined as “bad” by analogy with the stock of perpetually discredited historical actors. In Matei’s Guardian article, Trump’s America is variously (and simultaneously) an intolerable recurrence of Nazi Germany, the late Soviet Union, and post-Soviet Russia under Boris Yeltsin and the oligarchs (the latter analogy given special credence by a quote from Curtis himself). To view oneself as a dissident from such a system is to set oneself up as the perfect victim, “a poor unfortunate taken to the next level,” a freedom fighter on the right side of history (because freedom fighters are always on the right side of history).5"

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 11/09/2026

How important is spending on AI to the USA's economy? ING's Chief International Economist (US) reckons it's about a third of year-on-year GDP growth. think.ing.com/opinions/how...

Graph, titled "Narrowest measure: Tech contribution to GDP - computer, peripheral & software investment, data centers less net imports (YoY% growth)", showing USA GDP growth of around 2% year-on-year since 2025 and 'AI-related' categories contributing ~37% of that over the same time period, growing from a much smaller share beforehand.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 08/09/2026

Adam Tooze has a good piece on the AfD breakthrough in Sachsen-Anhalt (Germany) and the need for a response that provides not just material benefits to the disaffected voters, but something that can produce identity. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...

The racism and xenophobia of the AfD are real. But they are all the more powerful because they serve as a kind of commitment device. People who act and speak in public as right-wing extremists and are labeled as such, establish a claim to authenticity. They establish an identity beyond the “Berlin Republic” mainstream and invite voters to join them. The AfD has worked assiduously to foster and build that community. In the East German states it is now approaching majoritarian status.

To believe that the answer to such a political project can lie reinforcing, reforming and improving the mainstream through improved socio-economic policies is, to say the least, a bold hypothesis. The more obvious conclusion is that to contest the political terrain with the AfD, if that is indeed something we want to do, we need to offer not more of the same (just better), but an “alternative to the Alternative”, an “alternative to the Alternative”, furthermore, that can produce something more than just material benefits. That can produce identity.

When my colleague at Surplus magazine Isabella Weber calls for an “anti-fascist economics, or when Marcel Fratzscher of the DIW calls for a major reform program that is “even more far-reaching” than that 25 years ago with Agenda 2010, they are speaking to the need for bold and radical action. Both have specific economic policies in mind - measures of price control (Weber), a whole raft of ‘reforms” in Fratzscher’s case. But after Sachsen-Anhalt, the central question must be: are such policies enough to found new political identities beyond the current mainstream of Berlin politics? Or is that a mode of politics, which we prefer to leave to the AfD?

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 02/09/2026

Still using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways? Stop! SSPs are out; CMIP7 is in. No, Ronaldo hasn't rebranded – these are the new global GHG emissions pathways agreed on by leading global climate modelling groups, and Dr Hausfather is here to tell you what's what.

Table of the seven new CMIP7 climate modelling scenarios listing their characteristics including Marker IAM, Underlying SSP, Emissions Pathway, and Warming in 2100.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 01/09/2026

The CCA makes six recommendations "to strengthen confidence and support investment." These relate to carbon storage/permanence, public value, transparency, and method development.

Recommendations
Carbon storage and ACCU use (permanence)

1. Complete and publish the first assessment of the risk of reversal buffer and permanence period discount by the end of 2027.

2. Examine whether ACCUs from 25-year permanence projects remain appropriate for Safeguard Mechanism compliance.

Public value

3. Prioritise credible public and First Nations benefits in any future Government purchasing.

Transparency

4. Give buyers clearer, more accessible information about ACCUs, projects and market activity.

Method development

5. Publish a forward view of method development priorities and expected timelines.

6. Increase efficiency, capacity and coordination across the method development process.

These will help make sure the ACCU Scheme remains effective, credible and fit for the future. See page 5 for more information.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 01/09/2026

The Climate Change Authority has released its review of the ACCU scheme. It finds "the scheme remains fundamentally sound" and "no major redesign of the scheme is needed." Recent reforms have helped, but some need more time to implement and mature. www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/publications...

Key findings
The ACCU Scheme remains fundamentally sound.
Recent reforms are strengthening integrity, governance and transparency.
Many recent reforms are still being implemented and need time to mature.
No major redesign of the scheme is needed.
The Authority makes 6 recommendations to strengthen confidence and support investment.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 18/08/2026

Fagan J (NSW Supreme Court) has an extremely dim view of the IHRA definition of antisemitism (from para 105) and several related topics. www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/decision/1a0...

Text of judgement: "The IHRA “examples” are, on the face of them, directed to embracing within the IHRA’s formula criticisms of Israel that could not be regarded as hostile to Jews as Jews, applying the distinction that Stewart J identified in Wertheim v Haddad and that is recognised in these reasons. The examples indicate that the IHRA wording is not intended to give effect to the extant common understanding of antisemitism but is directed to a quite different end. Its tendency, and the apparent purpose of promoting it, is to graft onto the community’s abhorrence of antisemitism, understood as hostility to Jews for their Jewishness, a parasitic rejection of protest against Israel. Seen in that light, the IHRA proposal is detached from the reality of the common usage and understanding of antisemitism in this country."

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 12/08/2026

"As an alternative to better reflect the share of adults who are home owners, we offer the homeowners-to-population ratio, or HPOP, a measure that lends a more nuanced view for important policy considerations and context."

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 12/08/2026

'According to economist Karl Fitzgerald, the Census overstates the home ownership rate because it asks only whether the home you're in is owned, not whether YOU own the home. This treats adults living in their parents' (owned) house as home owners when they aren't.' www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08...

Chart showing Australian home ownership two ways: one, counting homes lived in by their owners (rates go from 69% in 2001 to 66% in 2021) and another, counting people living a home they own (rates go from 55% in 2001 to 52% in 2021)

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 03/08/2026

Like, look at this chart. 'Awww Brisbane prices have dropped this month' – good! They _shouldn't_ be going up >15% pa, that would be terrible.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 30/07/2026

Interesting interview with Ken Henry on AM yesterday about carbon credits and the Safeguard Mechanism. Transcript available for those who prefer reading over listening. www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

Melissa Clarke: Climate policy has long been politically divisive, even before that period that you've outlined. There have been ebbs and flows. So why do you think it is worse or at a more precarious position now than what we've seen in the past?

Ken Henry: I don't think it's more precarious than it was in 2013, but wow, in 2013, we lost everything. But it is almost as precarious as that. And the reason is, if you think about the various elements that we have, the key piece of the architecture is something called the safeguard mechanism. And now the safeguard mechanism is due for review. That review is just kicking off now. And the review has to result in tougher carbon abatement requirements from safeguard mechanism facilities. And also the safeguard mechanism requirements have to be extended much further across the economy. It has to be broadened. The business is already out saying the safeguard mechanism is too tough, that it should not be extended, that the abatement requirements should not be made tougher. But on the other side, we've got the Climate Change Authority telling us in report after report after report, that if Australia is to have any chance of meeting the net zero by 2050 target, which by the way now does not enjoy bipartisan support either, that if we've got to have any chance of meeting that, the Australian land sector is going to have to sequester, draw out of the atmosphere two and a half times as much carbon each year as it's presently doing. And the only mechanism we've got for doing that is carbon offsets. And carbon offsets are under threat. They're being attacked by environmentalists, by conservationists who see them as a device to make life too easy for fossil fuels.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 25/07/2026

Lmao incredible gall from my electricity retailer. Increases my annual bill by near 50%, tells me that's 30% worse than the regulated benchmark, yet assures me I'm still getting "a fair energy deal". Piss off, Flow Power.

Your annual cost will increase by approximately $616. This is 30.6% higher than your VDO rate.

Are you on the best offer? We believe you're receiving a fair energy deal

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 23/07/2026

My (very micro-level) recommendation to the ACT to achieve its climate targets is: stop your drivers taking the piss. Recently in inner Canberra looking to charge my EV, I found four bays with three EVs pretending to charge and a diesel 4WD. Two of the EVs had plugged in while already full!

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 23/07/2026

"Eight recommendations to help achieve NSW's climate targets"

1. NSW Government decisions, particularly planning decisions, need to take the targets into account
2. Accelerate the electricity sector transition
3. Accelerate uptake of electric alternatives for transport, buildings and industry
4. Significantly reduce methane emissions
5. Strengthen the policy environment for longer-term emissions reductions across sectors
6. Improve governance of adaptation policy and action
7. Increase overall investment in adaptation
8. Enable communities to drive climate action

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 23/07/2026

The NSW Net Zero Commission has released its Annual Progress Report. 'NSW is cutting emissions but not fast enough. Under the latest projections, the gap to meeting the state's 2030 and 2035 emissions reduction targets has widened.' www.netzerocommission.nsw.gov.au/our-work-pro...

Bar chart of NSW GHG emissions over time (in MtCO2-e), showing 151.9 Mt in 2005 (the reference year), 114.5 Mt in 2023 (latest reported), a target of 75.9 Mt in 2030 and a target of 45.6 Mt in 2035.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 03/07/2026

Interesting look at the recent four-day lull in wind that tested South Australia's high-renewables electricity system www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06...

Chart of electricity generation by generator type in South Australia between June 18 and June 23, showing the decrease in wind generation and replacement by gas-fired generation

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 01/07/2026

This session title has me very intrigued

Session title: "The economic theory of walls"

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 29/06/2026

"The project area must also include adjoining land where logging is reduced by at least 20%. There are also leakage clauses, providing penalties if logging of public forest increased elsewhere in the state on private or public land, or if there is an increase in imports of unsustainable timber."

Diagram: How the carbon credits for protecting forests will work

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 25/06/2026

I see. We can just add stuff up over 18 years without discounting now, can we? And still call ourselves economists?

No adjustment was made to calculate the net present value of future carbon abatement values, beyond what is already captured in Infrastructure Australia’s abatement values.

Finally, the health benefits attributable to the ECD because of reduced PM10 pollution were determined by applying the Review’s estimates for vehicle additionality. No adjustment was made to calculate the net present value of future health benefits.

No adjustment was made to calculate the net present value of future fuel cost savings.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 25/06/2026

Utterly bizarre to me that the Cwth Treasury, in 2026, would escalate historical prices using assumed inflation rather than observed inflation, which averaged 3.6% or 4.0% pa (depending on whether these are financial years or calendar years). I do not get it.

First, the estimated health costs attributable of $3,420 per ICE vehicle was adjusted for inflation from 2019 to 2023 prices (using an annual rate of 2.5%).

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 15/06/2026

Research focused on two sectors: the built environment and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG).

A table of challenges and solutions in the built environment and fast-moving consumer goods sectors.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 11/06/2026

"Landmark German ruling declares Google's AI Overviews are Google's own words and makes it liable for false answers" the-decoder.com/landmark-ger...

Topics
AI overviews aren't search results
Search engine liability rules don't apply to AI "search"
Google's "users can check for themselves" defense falls flat
AI-generated opinions get less free speech protection
Google picks up 80 percent of the legal tab
Even a 91 percent accuracy rate means millions of wrong answers

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 07/06/2026

"Majorities in most of the three dozen countries we’ve surveyed this year express an unfavorable view of Israel and little or no confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu." Median 25% favourable and 67% unfavourable amongst adults. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

A graph, "Large Majorities in most countries have negative views of Israel", showing opinion by country.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 30/05/2026

"Wind and solar combined generated more electricity than gas globally in April for the first month ever, data analysed by ‌UK-based think tank Ember showed" www.reuters.com/business/ene...

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 11/05/2026

Related: 'KPMG modelling shows the post-pandemic asset boom disproportionately benefited the richest fifth of households, while median household wealth has been stuck around $700,000 since 2019-20. Only ~1/5th of households have the average wealth level, or higher.' www.theage.com.au/business/the...

Table: How household wealth is distributed in Australia

Chart: Average and median household wealth in Australia

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 11/05/2026

"Many readers will have heard of the Hydrogen Ladder... Now, some of the same authors have produced the Electrification Staircase, which takes a deep dive into what can and should be electrified soon, and what remains speculative, even in [2040]." reneweconomy.com.au/from-cars-to...

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 08/05/2026

Big fan of these income overview tables from the @grattaninstitute.bsky.social grattan.edu.au/news/grattan...

A table titled "Grattan's 2026 Budget cheat sheet: how much do Australians earn?"
It shows income measures for taxpayers, workers, adults, households, and 'households adjusted for size', at the typical (median) level, average level, 10%, 20%, 80%, 90%, 95%, and 99% percentiles.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 23/04/2026

I'd prefer a longer time series, but this is suggestive. (And, y'know, consistent with basic economic theory...)

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 15/04/2026

What effect has Victoria's free PT had on usage vs NSW? A survey of 2,000 people after one week suggests, 'not much'. "Victoria’s free PT may have helped at the margins, but it did not produce a markedly different outcome from states that did not intervene." theconversation.com/victoria-has...

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 17/03/2026

"A regression slope of 2.9 indicates that, on average, a one-point increase in a climate fund’s Energy Transition Score — reflecting stronger financially material transition characteristics — was associated with approximately 2.9% higher annualized returns between 2022–2025."

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 15/03/2026

I've only had it since Friday, but Copilot Clippy is massively giving me the shits. Get out of my margin!

A pen with stars, representing the Copilot AI assistant, hovering in the left-hand margin of a Word document.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 25/02/2026

"This early good news doesn’t mean the job is done. The 2025 targets were set to be achievable to ease industry into the system ... But the reprieve won’t last long. Targets will get harder and harder to meet. A car emitting just over the limit today will be significantly over it by 2028."

Emissions standards for cars fall from 141 gCO2/km in 2025 to 58 gCO2/km in 2029. For utes and vans, the standards fall from 210 g/km in 2025 to 110 g/km in 2029.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 25/02/2026

"The first results from the [NVES, Australia's] new fuel efficiency scheme tell an encouraging story: almost 70% of carmakers beat their fleet emissions targets. ... The scheme likely contributed to the first fall in transport emissions since COVID." theconversation.com/how-australi...

Bar chart, "who has the most NVES carbon currency? July-Dec 2025". BYD has the most, with 4.23 million in credits; Mazda has the least, with 509k of liabilities.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 09/02/2026

'Government spending increases inflation. Even government spending that decreases inflation actually increases inflation, just somewhere else.' Got it.

The government’s childcare subsidies and energy rebates reduced headline prices and the overall inflation figure. Lower prices meant consumers had more money in their pockets, influencing inflation elsewhere.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 28/01/2026

What to do with your solar system during a bushfire envirogroup.com.au/industry-new...

If you have to leave: turn solar system off at inverter, then switchboard; turn solar batteries off.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 21/01/2026

Important advice for e-bikes in very hot weather (like the current Victorian summer) cargocycles.com.au/news/electri...

KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER:
In extreme heat, park your bike in the shade or indoors.
If you have to park in full sun, take your battery off and take it with you. This also applies if you are leaving your e-bike in a metal storage locker in the sun at a station or outside your office, as temperatures are often in excess of 60 degrees!
Charge your e-bike inside or in the shade and never leave it unattended or charging overnight.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 19/01/2026

"Major energy retailers have asked for more time to comply with rules forcing them to offer three hours of free daytime power, and warn the scheme needs more work to avoid disproportionately benefiting customers with batteries and electric cars" www.theage.com.au/business/con...

"One of the central concerns was that the plan, without significant structural changes, could drive up prices at other times of the day and create a “cross-subsidy” whereby renters and other households unable to shift their usage times may end up paying for benefits flowing to those who can capitalise on the “free” power window to fill up their battery systems and electric cars."

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 15/01/2026

TIL a very important distinction in energy terminology

Screenshot of AI summary of a web search: MWth is an abbreviation for megawatt thermal, a unit used to measure the amount of thermal power produced, typically by power plants or reactors.
This unit quantifies the heat generated by a system, rather than the electrical power (MWe, or megawatt electrical) it outputs, which is always a smaller number due to the inefficiencies of converting heat into electricity. For example, a nuclear reactor might have a thermal output of 3,000 MWth but an electrical output of only 1,000 MWe.
It is important not to confuse "MWth" with "meth," a common street name for the drug methamphetamine.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 12/01/2026

Top 10 countries with the biggest aviation emissions per passenger km

Graph: Top 10 countries with the biggest aviation emissions. Ranked by average flight emissions, grams of CO2 per paying passenger km.
USA 96.5
China 88.6
Germany 87
Japan 86.5
Australia 83.7
France 82.0
UK 81.1
UAE 78.5
India 78.1
Spain 75.0

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 24/11/2025

"First Nations people were also 10 times more likely to have force, or the threat of force used against them by police, while officers were 13 times more likely to use, or threaten to use tasers on those perceived to be Aboriginal." And similar results for people of African appearance.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 24/11/2025

"Research by the Centre Against Racial Profiling found people perceived by [Victorian] police to be Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander were 15x more likely to be searched than white people in 2024, but were less likely to be found with prohibited items" www.theage.com.au/politics/vic...

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 20/08/2025

"There could be a green national paradox. Most simply put, if one affluent nation develops a climate exceptionalism, this might stimulate the growth of nationalist sentiments that eventually fold in on the mitigation policies associated with it."

"Judging from the Swedish case, several conditions would need to be fulfilled for this to happen. First, the exceptionalist project would have to include some substantial mitigation measures, against which an opposition can react; but these would need to be limited and incomplete, leaving the foundations of a fossil fuel-based status quo in place (or else there would be no force in the opposition). Second, the project would have to speak to the ego of the nation and fan the flames of its collective narcissism. This would not necessarily have to be framed in moral terms: one could think of national climate ambitions that hark back to notions of outstanding engineering skills or entrepreneurial stardom (both of which were present in Sweden). Third, the exceptionalism would have to be predicated on the denial of parts of reality – an ideology with much greater claims than the actual climate reforms would merit. Fourth, these dynamics will more easily lend themselves to increasing nationalism if they are bound up with similar developments on the front of immigration. If these conditions are fulfilled, an ethnonationalist party in the ascendancy might have a propitious political environment for turning prior ambitions into their opposite."

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 15/08/2025

In July – prior to the release of Jillian Segal's antisemitism report – the Federal Court ruled that criticism of Israel, Zionism, or the IDF did not breach the Racial Discrimination Act. theconversation.com/australian-l...

"Parts of a speech made by Haddad that referred directly to the conduct of Israel and the Israel Defense Forces did not breach the Racial Discrimination Act because they could not reasonably be regarded as referring to Jewish people.

Further, references in the speech to Zionism were regarded by the court as referring to a political ideology, rather than Jewish ethnicity.

However, the court did recognise that criticism of Zionism and Israel was sometimes coded, or included subtle references to Jewish identity.

Under the act, courts must carefully consider the context of relevant speech, including the tone and language used. That means blaming Jewish people for the actions of Israel or the Israeli military, for example, could in fact breach the law. "

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 28/07/2025

'There are other regions in the world suffering from famine or starvation. The common denominator of all of these zones of suffering, is armed violence. The mass starvation in Gaza is the only one being the result of deliberate policy; Israeli policy.'

"Sudan, South Sudan, Myanmar, DRC are all in civil war. In Haiti there is anarchy. All of these situations might be reasonably described either as zones of zones of polycrisis, or as regions of chronic poverty (Northern Nigeria, for instance) - which itself demands a deeper explanation.

By contrast, “the protracted and large-scale military operations” in Gaza that are responsible for the famine there, are not manifestations of a crisis. They are being conducted with full deliberation by Israel, a rich and fully sovereign state. Food supplies to Gaza, which are fully within Israel’s grip, are being deliberately “regulated” to a totally inadequate level. Meanwhile, water desalination facilities have been targeted by smart bombs. There is no fuel for cooking. In waging its campaign in Gaza, Israel has had the unstinting and highly public support of the mainstream of US politics and that of many countries in Europe. These are not deniable operations, as for instance the UAE’s engagement in Sudan, but publicly celebrated multi-billion dollar “aid packages”. "

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 28/07/2025

Strong newsletter by Adam Tooze today: 'the famine in the Gaza Strip is not a crisis, it is deliberate murder by Israel: a policy of ethnic cleansing by means of starvation'. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...

"Death by starvation in Gaza is not the collateral, unintended consequence of an obscure, anonymous, amorphous crisis. It is the results of deliberate policy on the part of the Israeli government, bent on using the resources of a highly sophisticated state to render Palestinian life in Gaza impossible."

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 28/07/2025

"Along with this figure, the Centre has built the first national map of wood-heater emissions and deaths attributable to these emissions, with a resolution that can pick out clusters of suburbs most at risk." 'The south-east corner of Australia has the highest concentration of wood heaters.'

Map of south-eastern Australia showing areas of high pollution from wood heater emissions. Title: Wood heater emissions are generally highest in regional areas.

Map of south-eastern Australia showing earlier-than-expected deaths per 100,000 people due to exposure to wood-heater smoke. Title: Wood smoke has the greatest public health impact in cities.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 18/06/2025

"If attitudes persist, the actual implementation of the teen social media ban will be less popular than it is in theory. It also suggests that the most accepted methods of age assurance are also the ones that place people at the greatest risk regarding their fears."

The story this tells is that Australians are most likely to hand over their ID to prove their age if asked, an age assurance method that probably carries the greatest risk of privacy and security breaches. The other methods — which most people appear to have no idea are already being used right now by companies like Meta — are less popular with people.

This suggests that, if attitudes persist, the actual implementation of the teen social media ban will be less popular than it is in theory. It also suggests that the most accepted methods of age assurance are also the ones that place people at the greatest risk regarding their fears.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 18/06/2025

Australia's taxonomy is interoperable with leading global taxonomies but goes further, including by setting expectations for engagement with First Nations peoples

Why does Australia need its own taxonomy?
While the European Union taxonomy is viewed by many in the market as the benchmark taxonomy, it does not cover key sectors of importance to Australia, like mining, critical minerals and agriculture. The Australian taxonomy builds and expands on the EU taxonomy’s approach while covering key sectors including green mining, metals and minerals and agriculture and has an explicit focus on credible transition activities. It is also the first taxonomy in the world to set expectations for engagement with First Nations peoples and the management of cultural heritage.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 05/06/2025

5. RBD describes the gas network liabilities being transferred to "relevant" electricity networks – all electricity networks? Just the ones overlapping with gas networks? This is a can of worms he sidesteps as a policy question.

Determining the “relevant” electricity distribution networks for steps 9 and 10 is unavoidably a question for policymakers given the distributive consequences it has on electricity consumers.

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Martin Jones @martincjones.com · 05/06/2025

4.a. RBD proposes an interim step of creating a new financial instrument (a "delta asset") that, he thinks, will reduce the regulatory payment liabilities as they shift from the gas RAB to the electricity RAB. This is a key idea of the paper.

Because the delta asset comes with a fixed and secure income stream with no legal ties to physical assets or the risks associated with operating a gas network, the rate of return that’s bid on the delta asset can be expected to be notably lower than the rate of return provided by the regulator – that is, the AER’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

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