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Reposted by Martina Kavan

Kieran Lowe @kieranran.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Ever wondered how Santa Claus heats and powers his workshop (and how big it is?) 🎅 - @nestauk.bsky.social's @martinakavan.bsky.social has done the analysis and heat pumps are a better bet for keeping elves toasty! Read the @businessgreen.bsky.social piece here www.businessgreen.com/news/4523629...

businessgreen.com

'Gas boilers are skating on thin ice': Study makes case for heat pumps at Santa's toy workshop

Festive research from Nesta calculates Father Christmas could slash his energy use by 78 per cent by ditching fossil gas boilers for heat pumps at his Lapland toy factory

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

What is the ECO scheme that the government wants to scrap? 💰 An explainer by @mashley.bsky.social on the programme that isn't working well, but could be key to bringing low income households along on the green transition and lowering bills. www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...

nesta.org.uk

What is the Energy Company Obligation (ECO)?

This explainer breaks down the history of the Energy Company Obligation - from its inception through to its delivery and future.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 25/07/2025

It's an advisory ruling, but opens the door for more climate lawsuits. And all started by a group of law students - Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change. 🥊

media.tenor.com

a hand holding a sign that says climate change is an existential threat

ALT: a hand holding a sign that says climate change is an existential threat

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 25/07/2025

"Failure to take appropriate action [...], including through the production and consumption of fossil fuels, the granting of fossil fuel exploration licences or the provision of fossil fuel subsidies, “may constitute an international wrongful act which is attributable to that state”. " ❗

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 25/07/2025

This week's big win 🎉 of the International Court of Justice ruling could change the way states approach NDCs. What did ICJ say? ⚖️ States are obligated to protect the climate under international law ⚖️ They must adopt ambitions NDCs ⚖️ Failure to do so can trigger reparations to affected countries

theguardian.com

Nations who fail to curb fossil fuels could be ordered to pay reparations, top UN court rules

Landmark opinion says those that fail to prevent climate harm could be liable for compensation and restitution

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Reposted by Martina Kavan

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 10/06/2025

There's been a lot of talk about Labour's £13.2bn Warm Homes Plan, which may or may not be confirmed in the spending review tomorrow. But what is the £13.2bn for? My colleagues @tomleach.bsky.social and @martinakavan.bsky.social have written a nice explainer... www.nesta.org.uk/blog/what-co...

nesta.org.uk

What could £13.2 billion do to improve British homes?

As the Spending Review approaches, we analyse Labour's £13.2 billion Warm Homes Plan. While the pledge may survive, what will it take to make it a success?

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

You can also play with this chart and see how moving levies to gas would affect different types of households. public.flourish.studio/visualisatio... (keeping in mind that under status quo, low-income households, and especially those who use electric heating, contribute disproportionately)

public.flourish.studio

Figure 2. Archetype bill changes

A Flourish data visualization by Shaan Jindal

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

There are different ways to reduce levies on electricity. The last row here shows average changes in annual bill compared to today under our preferred solution: Shifting levies from electricity to gas + moving ECO off gas bills + increasing fuel support

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

We've just published our work on reforming energy levies. Current levies inflate electricity bills by ~20%, and favor fossil fuels over clean energy. We project impacts of levy reform on a range of households and show that it's possible to make them both fairer and more climate friendly.

nesta.org.uk

How to make electricity cheaper

Reforming the levies on energy bills

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Overall our response to the fuel poverty consultation argues that: 1. Heat pumps needs to play a bigger role, 2. Rebalancing levies resolves the tension between net zero and affordability, 3. Schemes should move away from “worst first” and treat a lot more homes. www.nesta.org.uk/blog/we-need...

nesta.org.uk

We need cheaper electricity to unlock a more effective fuel poverty strategy

As fuel poverty rates remain stubbornly high, we call for a stronger role for low-carbon heat, cheaper electricity through levy reform and a move away from deep retrofits in hard-to-treat homes

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Our take at @nestauk.bsky.social is that making electricity cheaper is necessary in making any fuel poverty strategy sustainable (ie. aligned with net zero). Without cheap electricity, it is still difficult to fund heat pumps for gas-using low-income households and promise reliable savings.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Government recently consulted on a new fuel poverty strategy for England. Recognizing that what they're doing now isn't making much of a dent in the problem. Asking questions like "How should we implement the sustainability principle".

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

I wrote a blog on the role of electricity prices in helping people in fuel poverty. These are two illustrative scenarios I used to describe the long-term effects of cheap/expensive electricity on public spending and fuel poverty: 🧵

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Reposted by Martina Kavan

Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

What if we had no electricity and everything ran on fossil fuels? This ad keeps making me chuckle. Enjoy if you have not seen it or rewatch as it is just gold!

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

The ratio of electricity to gas needs to drop to well below 3.5 and stay there, otherwise mass electrification won't happen because electricity won't be a good deal. Chart from: www.nesta.org.uk/blog/fixing-...

nesta.org.uk

Fixing the levy system could save billions on heat pump subsidies

Rebalancing levies would reduce the need for public subsidies, make heat pumps more attractive to households, and support a fairer, faster transition

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

Electricity needs to get cheaper, but realistically, low gas prices will also threaten the transition to clean energy. If we added levies to the price of gas, the wholesale component (currently 58%) would play a relatively smaller role. Cheap gas wouldn't affect the price ratio as much.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

Moving levies from electricity to gas would protect decarbonisation efforts from volatility in gas prices. 📉 This chart shows the future electricity-to-gas price ratio (key metric for incentivizing electrification) under wholesale price scenarios with (full lines) and without (dashed) rebalancing.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

I'm afraid it'd have to scale up substantially. Levies paid per unit are currently calculated by estimating the total UK consumption in kWh and dividing the revenue needed by that. If the revenue was covered only from a portion of total consumption, levy rate would need to increase by quite a lot

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 27/04/2025

So it would have the same negative effect on the average household while not delivering as big an incentive for larger households on gas to switch (because gas prices would remain the same)? The good bonus is that it'd massively help fuel-poor households with direct electric heating.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 27/04/2025

Interesting, so what you're suggesting is the opposite of a rising block tariff. My first thoughts are that you'd have to increase the levy per kWh (maybe triple?) so much that it might disproportionately hit low-income households with low consumption.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

The @thecccuk.bsky.social advises ~440,000 heat pump installations in 2030. With a £6k grant for each, the government would pay £2.65bn. With a £2k grant under levy rebalancing, it's just £880m. A difference of £1.8bn/year. Not rebalancing levies could cost extra £13.8bn over the next parliament.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

By 2030 without rebalancing levies, BUS would need to be at £6,000 to maintain price parity between heat pumps and boilers. On the other hand, if levies are rebalanced, £2,000 should be enough for the average household. (chart shows annualised costs over 15 years)

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Moving the majority of levies from electricity to gas bills would bring the ratio of electricity to gas prices from 3.9 to 2.7. And it would technically cost the government nothing. Heat pump owners would pay on avg. £380/year less than households on gas, even including upfront costs and interest.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

The current £7,500 BUS brings the total cost of having a heat pump on average down to the level of a gas boiler. But if homeowners could save hundreds of £ on energy, they wouldn't need such high subsidies on upfront costs. Electricity needs to get cheaper relative to gas.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Fixing electricity pricing is urgent. Without it, decarbonisation stalls and gov will need to spend billions more on subsidies. I wrote a blog explaining the role of energy levies in the total cost of heat pumps. 🧵🔽 This chart shows the projected annual costs over 15 years under status quo:

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

Thank you to all reporters who call out anti net zero bullshit. A great cheat sheet for the likes of "UK is only responsible for 1% of global emissions and so can slow down". ("A @carbonbrief.org analysis in 2021 found that the UK was the eighth largest country in terms of cumulative emissions.")

theguardian.com

Factcheck: Kemi Badenoch’s claim that net zero is ‘impossible’ by 2050

Tory leader provides no evidence to support position that flies in face of expert reports and her own words

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

The U.S. Department of Defense is ending all of its funding for social science research, stopping 91 ongoing studies related to threats such as climate change, extremism, and disinformation. Oh, this will age so, so badly: "The DOD does not do climate change crap. We do training and warfighting."

science.org

Pentagon abruptly ends all funding for social science research

More than 90 studies on threats such as climate change, extremism, and disinformation are halted

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

Better bill support for vulnerable households will require about £1bn/year extra spending and breaking down barriers to data sharing between departments and energy companies so that those who need it most can get help. Transitioning away from gas will then lower bills in the long term.

energy-uk.org.uk

How to cut bills: A crisis we can’t afford to ignore - Energy UK

We know the Clean Power Mission is the only way to permanently achieve bill reductions, but this will take time. In ‘How to cut bills: A crisis we can’t afford to ignore’, Energy UK sets out a roadma...

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

But removing levies would be very expensive for the government. Schemes funded through bills cost £1bn-£6bn in total/year. A more nuanced solution is to shift some levies from electricity to gas bills, and use public money to reduce bills for vulnerable households only, in a more targeted way.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

Removing policy levies from electricity bills is highlighted in the mix of solutions. It would save hundreds of pounds to the 4.5 million electrically heated households, and would create a big incentive to switch to a heat pump. ( @nestauk.bsky.social chart from www.nesta.org.uk/project/find...)

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

A nice clear and simple piece from @energy-uk.org.uk: "How to cut bills". Doing nothing on energy bills now means: - continued levels of fuel poverty - slow decarbonisation because of expensive electricity - households exposed to more gas price shocks

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Reposted by Martina Kavan

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

I've got a new Nesta blog up: What does the Seventh Carbon Budget tell us about decarbonising home heating? I've made* a load of charts for it too... (*ok, actually mainly stolen them from the CCC) www.nesta.org.uk/blog/the-sev...

nesta.org.uk

What does the Seventh Carbon Budget tell us about decarbonising home heating?

The future of home heating will be electric, and we need to move towards that future quickly

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

And the big picture – electrification of heating plays a major role in CB7. General electrification accounts for 58% of emissions reduction, and heat pumps = ¼ of that. Unlike CB6, CB7 clearly states no role for hydrogen in heating. 75% of all clean heating should be delivered by heat pumps.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

So what can government do to help hit targets? - Make electricity cheaper by removing policy costs from electricity bills (!) - Continue subsidies - Signal to industry with a boiler phase out date and ruling out hydrogen - Enforce the Clean Heat Market Mechanism - Pilot area-based schemes [...]

nesta.org.uk

Cheaper electricity, fairer bills

Electricity prices are disproportionately higher compared to gas prices

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Current progress is lagging behind. Last year 100,000 heat pumps were installed, up from 60,000 the year before. So the pace is picking up, but the UK is still behind its targets and moving slower than most EU countries.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Fresh out the CCC oven – the Seventh Carbon Budget sets out a new trajectory for heat pumps. The new Balanced Pathway pushes back heat pump installations into the 30s – more realistic given current progress, but still ambitious.

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Reposted by Martina Kavan

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

I generally like David Gauke's writing, but this is really poor on energy prices and net zero I'm afraid. Not going to rebut the whole thing, but a couple of quick points... www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

$Businesses are increasingly vocal about the uncompetitiveness of energy prices. It has long been the case that Europe has higher energy prices than the US because the US has embraced fracking. President Trump is going to inflict many wounds on the US economy, but his “drill, baby, drill” approach to energy policy will lower the cost for US businesses further. Even in the European context, our energy costs are high. Industries such as steelmaking and chemicals are increasingly priced out of the UK for this reason. Nor is this just a problem for established industries. Artificial Intelligence requires data centres and data centres require a lot of energy. An ambition to lead the world in AI is incompatible with high energy prices.$

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Reposted by Martina Kavan

Nesta @nestauk.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

On the 12 days of Christmas, my heat pump gave to me: 🦃 Enough energy to roast 2,900 turkeys 🥦 5 tonnes of brussels sprouts cooked to perfection 🍮 1,500 gallons of custard warmed and ready-to-eat 🎁 Let's unwrap the numbers on heat pump savings over Christmas ⬇️

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

I wrote a little explainer on what levies are and why their design is regressive here ⬇️ Now's the time to change levies and make energy bills fairer and more fit for net zero.

nesta.org.uk

Household energy bills include green levies. What are they and why do we need to pay them?

When energy providers set tariffs for gas and electricity, the price includes a range of costs.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Doing something about levies would also ease the burden on households with direct electric heating who are paying disproportionately in levies. Households with electric heating have a higher prevalence and much greater depths of fuel poverty. See chart here: public.flourish.studio/story/2696937/

Bar chart showing total gas and electricity levies as a share of net income across Ofgem consumer archetypes, from low-income (left) to high-income (right). Low-income households with direct electric heating (green bars) face the highest burden, exceeding 1.5%, while wealthier archetypes experience a much smaller share."

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Rebalancing levies (moving them to gas) would have a huge effect on the electricity-to-gas-price ratio (the "spark gap") - because electricity gets cheaper for consumers while gas gets more expensive. A low ratio is an important ingredient in electrifying heat and moving away from fossil gas.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Almost £6bn was raised in levies last year. Most of this through electricity bills, collected from each unit of electricity consumed. To make electricity cheaper, this money would either need to be raised from general taxation instead, or moved onto gas bills.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

First, what are levies? They are costs added into electricity and gas prices to pay for various social and environmental schemes. They add ~£140 a year to an electricity bill but less than £50 to a gas bill for a typical household. An imbalance.

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

We've been thinking about levies on energy bills a lot at @nestauk.bsky.social, and looking at what can be done about them to make electricity cheaper. We've just published an analysis by @mashley.bsky.social of the effects of levies on different types of households. --> 🧵

nesta.org.uk

Cheaper electricity, fairer bills

Electricity prices are disproportionately higher compared to gas prices

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Ofgem and the CSE developed these helpful 24 archetypes grouping households based on their heating fuel, consumption, income and size (interactive chart in article). We've been using them at @nestauk.bsky.social to look at how rebalancing levies on bills would affect different kinds of households.

Bar chart comparing annual electricity and gas consumption across Ofgem consumer archetypes. Electricity consumption ranges from 2,482 kWh (D11) to 7,523 kWh (J24), while gas consumption ranges from 8,782 kWh (D11) to 18,530 kWh (I22), and zero for some archetypes. Archetypes are grouped by income decile (A lowest, J highest).

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

For a rough idea of the scale of differences, here are four archetypical households and their energy bills. Many households with direct electrical heat though also pay a lot more for energy than similar-sized households on gas. That's because electricity is currently 4 times the price of gas.

Bar chart comparing annual gas and electricity bills for different household types. A single-person household in a flat with direct electrical heating pays £1,400 (electricity only). A couple in modern flats with electrical heating pays £1,300. A 2-bedroom terraced house with gas heating pays £1,800 (£1,000 electricity, £800 gas). A large family in a detached house pays £2,500 (£1,300 electricity, £1,200 gas).

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Martina Kavan @martinakavan.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

With all the talk about energy prices, I'm sure you're all asking yourselves how much households other than yours pay for energy. Surely not everyone spends £[insert price cap] a year. Ask no more. Here we explain and chart how things like heating tech, house size and lifestyles affect bills:

nesta.org.uk

How different households use energy and how much it costs them

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