iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

7/ This is the real story of the anniversary. The divide is no longer Leaver vs Remainer. It's a political and media class still fighting 2016 — versus an electorate, reshaped by demographics and a darker world, that has already moved on.

140

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

6/ And the geometry has inverted. In 2016 Europe split the progressive coalition — Hull vs Hampstead. Today it unites it: Labour, Green, Lib Dem, even most ex-Labour Reform switchers want closer ties. The division has migrated to the right. The Tory vote is split down the middle.

140

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

5/ So the old categories have collapsed. Our data shows three new groups that predict behaviour far better than Leave/Remain: Optimists (28%): integrate, confidently. Realists (35%): closer, but show me the costs and benefits. Loners (27%): keep our distance

150

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

4/ The depth is the surprise. These were once unthinkable positions: → 63% would accept freedom of movement for closer trade → ~two-thirds back a European nuclear deterrent independent of the US → a plurality would even back a European army with UK troops

150

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

3/ The engine of this shift is geopolitical, not nostalgic. Only 18% of Britons see the US as an ally. If the UK were attacked, 35% trust America to help — 72% trust European countries. A predatory Trump has done more for British Europeanism than any campaign could.

160

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

2/ The headline: 75% of Britons now want a closer relationship with the EU; only 8% want a more distant one. Among Leave voters it's 66–15. Ask people what Brexit's benefits are and the top answer is "don't know," followed by "none of the above."

152

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

1/ Ten years on from the Brexit vote, the most interesting thing in British politics isn't that people regret it. It's that "Leaver" and "Remainer" have stopped meaning anything at all. New ECFR/Mandate polling out today, four surveys, fielded in May. A thread. 🧵

1127

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

And if you are based in London, the amazing @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social and I are discussing it at the @owlbookshop.bsky.social in Kentish Town tonight at 6.30pm. You can register for a place here: owlbookshop.co.uk/product/mark...

owlbookshop.co.uk

Mark Leonard with Jonathan Freedland – Owl Bookshop

170

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

4/ Instead of looking for order, Europeans need to work out how to have agency. That's the argument of my new book, Surviving Chaos. I go deep into the chaos and emerge with an optimistic playbook for serving Un-Order

180

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

3/ The question isn't how to restore what was. It's how to survive—and think—when the rulebook has been burned. Instead of mourning the past, let's embrace the present

192

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

2/ What we have now isn't a "crisis of the rules-based order." It's the arrival of permanent unorder—a stable, fragmented world where chaos itself has become the system.

170

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

1/ We've spent 30 years building institutions for a world that no longer exists. The UN Security Council. The WTO. NATO's Article 5. All designed for an era of converging values.

180

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

The liberal world order isn't wounded. It's dead. And every foreign policy establishment in London, Paris, Brussels, and Berlin is still performing CPR on a corpse. 🧵 Thread: Why the cleverest people in geopolitics are solving the wrong problem—and what actually comes next.

1269

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Calling all Londoners! On 30th April I will be in conversation about war and global politics with the amazing @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social at @owlbookshop.bsky.social @theguardian.com @unholypod.bsky.social . You can use this link to register: owlbookshop.co.uk/product/mark...

owlbookshop.co.uk

Mark Leonard with Jonathan Freedland – Owl Bookshop

021

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

🌍🎤 NEW PODCAST ALERT!!! 🎤🌍 On the latest episode the UK in a Changing Europe podcast, @anandmenon.bsky.social talks to @markhleonard.bsky.social of @ecfr.eu about how the UK and EU can confront a wide range of shared global challenges. ukandeu.ac.uk/podcasts/how...

ukandeu.ac.uk

How can the UK and Europe face global challenges? - UK in a changing Europe

In recent years, there has been no shortage of crises for Europe to face. From the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s full scale invasion...

023

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

It is accompanied by a new @ecfr.eu podcast series, also out today and well worth a listen: bsky.app/profile/ecfr...

042

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

Happy publication day to @markhleonard.bsky.social whose book Surviving Chaos is out today and could hardly be more timely... or clarifying as global rules collapse. It will change how you think about the "unorder" of our times, and what to do about it. ⬇️ www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?b...

272

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 25/04/2026

New Podcast Series! 📢 In our first episode, @markhleonard.bsky.social introduced his new book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail and reflected on what it means to navigate a world in which rules have become irrelevant with four other speakers. 🎧 Listen: bit.ly/4eG2r7R

bit.ly

Surviving Chaos – European Council on Foreign Relations

Mark Leonard introduces his new book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail. He is joined by Carl Bildt, Ivan Krastev, Gideon Rachman and Helle Thorni

184

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 27/04/2026

bit.ly

Surviving Chaos – European Council on Foreign Relations

Mark Leonard introduces his new book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail. He is joined by Carl Bildt, Ivan Krastev, Gideon Rachman and Helle Thorni

022

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 18/04/2026

My book is out on 24 April.Incredible to see it in the flesh! Iran shows the new Un-Order w/ energy shortfalls, food insecurity, nuclear proliferation, & global economic shocks all happening simultaneously. This explains the new world & how to survive it. www.amazon.co.uk/Surviving-Ch...

011

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

Are you trying to understand our crazy world? What lies behind Trump, Putin and Xi? How can we survive the Age of "Unorder" where there are no agreed-upon rules, norms, or even truths? I have great news: a short, optimistic book w a whopping discount. Link below: www.waterstones.com/book/survivi...

waterstones.com

Surviving Chaos by Mark Leonard | Waterstones

Buy Surviving Chaos by Mark Leonard from Waterstones today! Click and Collect from your local Waterstones or get FREE UK delivery on orders over £25.

061

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 14/02/2026

Enjoyed huddling with @markhleonard.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social, @jankaoertel.bsky.social & Majda Ruge to record this World in 30 Mins episode at #MSC2026. My take: despite it all, there are grounds to be upbeat about today's more honest(ish) Europe-US relationship. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

ecfr.eu

Live from MSC 2026: Transatlantic turning point – European Council on Foreign Relations

Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, Ulrike Franke, Janka Oertel and Majda Ruge live from the Munich Security Conference to unpack its biggest moments

072

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

In our inaugural NPP publication, @ecfr.eu's director @markhleonard.bsky.social ventures a comprehensive intellectual anatomy of the "new right" - what distinguishes it, how it does politics and what it wants to achieve. ecfr.eu/publication/...

ecfr.eu

The new right: Anatomy of a global political revolution – European Council on Foreign Relations

The thinkers and ideas of the rising nationalist right merit the political mainstream's attention. Only by understanding them can it build a resilient counter-p

123

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Why are far right parties leading the opinion polls in so many countries? They aren't nostalgically trying to create a better yesterday but v modern and adapted to our world. Unless mainstream parties understand them they won't be able to resist or defeat them. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

theguardian.com

The biggest threat facing Europe is not a Trump invasion. It’s his global political revolution | Mark Leonard

I am convinced that Europe’s ‘new right’ is a radically contemporary movement. Defeating it means understanding its critique of liberalism, says Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relatio...

040

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

Very Exciting - the galleys for my new book 'Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics when the rules fail" arrived in the post today (look at the video). You can pre-order the book here: www.amazon.co.uk/Surviving-Ch...

010

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 22/01/2026

🎙️Hear from Alexander Stubb, President of Finland, and @markhleonard.bsky.social on today’s shifting geopolitical landscape, drawing on his academic background and frontline diplomatic experience as the liberal world order gives way to power politics and multipolar disorder. 👉 bit.ly/4bdPOPU

bit.ly

YouTube

Share your videos with friends, family, and the world

161

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

In Davos a new world is emerging, a post-western geopolitics. Emmanuel Macron has colourful language and Raybans but even more striking was the plea from the uber-altanticist European Commission President @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu for "a new independent Europe".

171

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 20/01/2026

🎧 New Week, New episode! @markhleonard.bsky.social sits down with Finnish president, Alexander Stubb in Davos for a conversation about Donald Trump’s view of Ukraine, Greenland, the world and Europe’s place in it. Listen to the live moments from Davos now: bit.ly/3LDOCLa

bit.ly

Live from Davos with Alexander Stubb – European Council on Foreign Relations

In this episode, Mark Leonard sits down with Finnish president, Alexander Stubb , in Davos for a conversation about&n

001

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Am in @Davos to talk about geopolitics, global Un-order, AI, China, Europe and Greenland among other things. I recorded a special issue of the World in 30 Minutes podcast with Finnish President Alex Stubb. Very much recommended: ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

071

markhleonard.bsky.social @markhleonard.bsky.social · 18/01/2026

The Greenland situation could turn into the biggest transtlantic crisis since Suez. Together with colleagues @ecfr we have just published a piece looking at what "cards" European nations hold on Greenland (to use Pres Trump's phrase). There is lots that Europeans can do: ecfr.eu/article/arct...

ecfr.eu

Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland – European Council on Foreign Relations

Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of

081

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

So many interesting findings and points of analysis in @ecfr.eu new global opinion survey. @markhleonard.bsky.social & colleagues polled 26k people in 21 countries around the world and found that - on whole range of measures - Trump’s 2nd term is playing into China’s hands ⬇️ ecfr.eu/publication/...

ecfr.eu

How Trump is making China great again—and what it means for Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations

A post-Western world is learning to love China, while Europeans are starting to fear America.

12718

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 15/01/2026

How is Trump making China great again & what does it mean for Europe? New ECFR survey data shows that Trump’s “America First” approach is pushing states closer to China while reducing fear of the US. ✍️ @markhleonard.bsky.social Ivan Krastev & @fromtga.bsky.social bit.ly/4qUzHv3

077

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 07/01/2026

"The world will not fall apart in 2026, but we will continue to muddle through an illiberal wave which is clearly not just a phase", write @markhleonard.bsky.social, Jeremy Shapiro, and Anand Sundar. Read the ten foreign policy trends that will shape 2026. bit.ly/4qH5mjk

bit.ly

2026: The year we stop pretending it’s just a phase – European Council on Foreign Relations

Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead

012

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 05/01/2026

Rather than only preparing for the next horror show from Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, Europeans should be drafting their own plans and making it clear that they are the true party of peace, writes @markhleonard.bsky.social What should be the Europe's next step? bit.ly/4poPwZM

ecfr.eu

Decision time for Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations

Given the Trump administration’s recent statements and policy pronouncements, European leaders no longer have any excuse for failing to map out their own long-t

095

Reposted by markhleonard.bsky.social

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 06/01/2026

🎧 New emergency Podcast! This week, @markhleonard.bsky.social welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and @jitorreblanca.bsky.social. Together, they discover why the US attacked Venezuela and captured President Maduro. What happens next? Could Greenland be next? Full episode: bit.ly/4aMbVwA

bit.ly

Trump attacks Venezuela – European Council on Foreign Relations

Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss what Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro means for the world

021