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Marc Chandler

@marcmakingsense.bsky.social

208 followers 73 following 1K posts

Political economist Focus global capital markets

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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 3h

EU strikes deal with China. Yes, devil lurks in details. Trust but verify. Still, arguably more pressing European issues persist. Beijing provides more econ support and sets #USD fix at new multiyear low. Week ahead likely sees hotter US CPI. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/week...

marctomarket.com

Week Ahead: Firm US CPI and Unresolved European Challenges Despite Deal with Beijing may Drive Markets

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 5h

New weekly drops: US CPI data highlight, and it looks like it ran hot in Sept. Europe strikes deal with PRC, but pressing domestic problems unresolved. Dovish Banxico sent $MXN reeling. $RMB new multi-year highs. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/week...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 22h

Neither the end of the criminal investigation in the remodeling nor the rate hike in defiance of the White House are sufficient to protect the independence of the Federal Reserve. The admin has not given up firing Gov Cook. Powell's retirement postponed. www.morningstar.com/news/marketw...

morningstar.com

Trump ramps up battle to fire Fed's Lisa Cook. Her lawyers say there's no basis to remove her.

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Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 23h

Perhaps lost in the shuffle of the collapse of the Spanish government, the French budget woes and contagion, but the German govt doubled this year's growth forecast to 1.3%. It would be the best since 2017, and boosted, the Econ Ministry said, by foreign trade.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 23h

Perhaps lost in the shuffle of the collapse of the Spanish government, the French budget woes and contagion, but the German govt doubled this year's growth forecast to 1.3%. It would be the best since 2017, and boosted, the Econ Ministry said, by foreign trade.

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Renewed pressure in European bonds has sent the euro back below $1.12, nearly a cent off yesterday’s high. Its loss of about 0.6% today leads the G10 currency complex lower. www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/rene...

marctomarket.com

Renewed Pressure in Europe Helps Lift the Greenback

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Renewed pressure in European bonds has sent the euro back below $1.12, nearly a cent off yesterday’s high. Its loss of about 0.6% today leads the G10 currency complex lower. www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/rene...

marctomarket.com

Renewed Pressure in Europe Helps Lift the Greenback

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Renewed pressure in European bonds is the key driver today; dragging equities lower and lifting the #USD. French govt threat to push 2027 budget without parliament approval sets dangerous precedent, especially with Le Pen running ahead in the polls. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/rene...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

If we can agree that the US tariffs have not reduced the trade imbalance & that many PRC company goods are still coming to the US, why are so many applauding at Germany and France advocating the EU follow the US. Moreover, it requires a unanimous decision, which seems unlikely.

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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Note that there are large euro options at $1.13 that expire Wed and Thurs. Wed's aggregate options are for nearly 2.9 bln euros and Thurs is for 4.56 bln euros. The euro reached almost $1.1280. Does it matter? If I were trading the euro near-term, it would to me. You?

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The toppling of the Spanish govt, the student and now teacher demonstration in France, and the protests in Germany seem to have little to do with China, which is the subject of Macron and Merz initiative. Still, mkt stress easier today. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/coll...

marctomarket.com

Collective Sigh of Relief as Oil Prices Drop, Yields Fall, and Stocks Rise

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Saudi-backed Yemen forces recapture strategic territory and help drive oil prices lower. Bond yields are lower and European peripheral premiums have narrowed. Stocks are higher. #USD is mixed, but CAD$ remains under pressure after PQ victory in Quebec. www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/coll...

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

USD is mostly narrowly mixed today. The political woes in Europe weighed on the euro, which was driven to nearly $1.1160, a 17-month low. The market does not like the developments in France and the 10-year premium over Germany is nearly 150 bp today. www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/euro...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

USD is mostly narrowly mixed today. The political woes in Europe weighed on the euro, which was driven to nearly $1.1160, a 17-month low. The market does not like the developments in France and the 10-year premium over Germany is nearly 150 bp today. www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/euro...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Politics drag the #euro to 17-month lows. French woes continue & Spain called a snap election. Saxony Anhalt state parliament convenes tomorrow after AfD won a plurality of vote in recent election. This offsets scaled back change of Fed hike this month. marctomarket.com/2026/10/euro...

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Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

What happens when #capitalism gets so good at producing wealth that the problem is no longer too little, but too much? That's the question at the heart of my new book, Surplus. Out November 3. Preorder: @GP Publishing and Prometheus Books amazon.com/dp/1493096656

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The third quarter closed with the world economy looking more resilient than it has any right to look. The wars in Iran and Ukraine continue. Energy markets have been disrupted. Yields surged. October outlook here: www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/octo...

marctomarket.com

October 2026 Monthly

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

October monthly drops--economic resilience, monetary policy, AI, and more. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/octo...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

What happens when #capitalism gets so good at producing wealth that the problem is no longer too little, but too much? That's the question at the heart of my new book, Surplus. Out November 3. Preorder: @GP Publishing and Prometheus Books amazon.com/dp/1493096656

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The third quarter closed with the world economy looking more resilient than it has any right to look. The wars in Iran and Ukraine continue. Energy markets have been disrupted. Yields surged. October outlook here: www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/octo...

marctomarket.com

October 2026 Monthly

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

October monthly drops--economic resilience, monetary policy, AI, and more. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/octo...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Pressure on French bonds continues. 10yr yield up 4 bp and Germany yield down 11 bp. Diff ~155 bp. $euro soft ahead of US jobs report, while CHF is strongest in G10. Italy's 10-year yield is 1 bp softer. France is in cross-hairs. Difficult to see near-term solution.

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Key tension that may be resolved with the US jobs data: US 2yr yield is off 14 bp since Monday. Odds of Oct Fed hike is falling for 4th session. Now ~25% vs. ~70% Monday. Yet #USD remains firm. See marctomarket.com/2026/10/us-j...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The greenback’s resilience is notable because comments by Williams and Jefferson suggest that the Fed’s leadership does not see the sense of urgency that was reflected in the market. Odds of Oct hike slashed to 25% from 70% Monday. What gives? www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/us-j...

marctomarket.com

US Jobs Report to Help Resolve Tension between Firm Greenback and Softer Short-Term Rates

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Key tension that may be resolved with the US jobs data: US 2yr yield is off 14 bp since Monday. Odds of Oct Fed hike is falling for 4th session. Now ~25% vs. ~70% Monday. Yet #USD remains firm. See marctomarket.com/2026/10/us-j...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

US 2 yr yld is dropping hard...now off nearly 10 bp. The 10 yr yld is off nearly 4 bp, but that is 10 bp from its highs. #USD holding up, I look for it to wilt with this move in rates.

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The #USD is bid despite the pullback in expectations for a Fed hike at the end of this month. $JPY sold on the uninspiring Tankan and BOJ meeting record, which has seen chances of a BOJ hike this month recede, too. French/Italian budget pressures. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/new-...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

A new month begins, but the market dynamics are familiar. Rising oil prices and rising yields have lifted the greenback broadly. The euro and Canadian dollar have been sold to new lows for the year. www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/new-...

marctomarket.com

New Month, Same Market Dynamics

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The #USD is bid despite the pullback in expectations for a Fed hike at the end of this month. $JPY sold on the uninspiring Tankan and BOJ meeting record, which has seen chances of a BOJ hike this month recede, too. French/Italian budget pressures. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/new-...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Many people still cite theory without testing it regarding rate differentials and the dollar-yen exchange rate. My point is that the changes in the US rates offer a better explanation of the changes in the exchange rate.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NY Fed President Williams, who has a permanent vote on the FOMC as its vice chair, open speaks as part of the Fed’s leadership, and downplayed the sense of urgency. Implied odd of a Fed hike in Oct has fallen from ~70% Monday to ~40% now. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/the-...

marctomarket.com

The Lack of Urgency Expressed by NY Fed President Williams Pushes Rates Lower and Weighs on the Greenback

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NY Fed Williams lack of urgency saw mkt expectations for a Oct Fed hike pared. #USD trades heavier. PBOC #USD fix at new lows ahead of week-long holiday that starts tomorrow. Today's PCE and deflator anticipated. Jobs more important. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/the-...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Again, leaving aside the Canadian dollar, the correlation work I share every week has consistently shown the dollar pairs are more correlated with US rate changes than the differential. I get what theory claims, but the correlations seem to tell a different story.

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The US dollar continues to trade with a firmer bias. We are still struck by the over-bought technical momentum indicators, arguably encouraged by the aggressive pricing of the trajectory of Fed policy. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/the-...

marctomarket.com

The Dollar Remains Firm and the RBA Delivered its Fourth Hike of the Year, though Sounded Less Hawkish

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The US dollar continues to trade with a firmer bias. We are still struck by the over-bought technical momentum indicators, arguably encouraged by the aggressive pricing of the trajectory of Fed policy. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/the-...

marctomarket.com

The Dollar Remains Firm and the RBA Delivered its Fourth Hike of the Year, though Sounded Less Hawkish

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

#USD remains firm, but rates are a little softer, and daily momentum indicators are stretched. Can the pendulum toward Oct hike swing further ahead of Friday jobs? RBA hiked as widely expected, but Gov Bullock was seemed less hawkish. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/the-...

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Oil prices jump, despite reports of increased flows as US rejects Iranian offer & brings more forces into the region. Higher oil sends rates higher and gives USD a bid. PBOC fixed USD sharply lower, by most since April. JPN steps up verbal intervention. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/war-...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The US has rejected Iran’s latest offer and appears to be moving more force into the region. Oil prices have jumped, which is also serving to push up yields. The dollar is firmer against most of the G10 currencies. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/war-...

marctomarket.com

War in Middle East Sends Oil Prices and Yields Higher, Underpins the Dollar,

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Oil prices jump, despite reports of increased flows as US rejects Iranian offer & brings more forces into the region. Higher oil sends rates higher and gives USD a bid. PBOC fixed USD sharply lower, by most since April. JPN steps up verbal intervention. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/war-...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

The #USD rally we anticipated looks like it is ending. Fed expectations swung hard but tough to see more with the upcoming data. Momentum indicators are stretch as USD tested or approached important chart points. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/week...

marctomarket.com

Week Ahead: Dollar Bulls may be Challenged

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Week Ahead--$USD bulls face over-extended momentum, extreme swing in pendulum of expectations for Fed tightening (~100 bp next 12 months) and PCE deflator revisions and softer jobs growth and auto sales. Looking for near-term top: www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/week...

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

There are two significant global imbalances--China's trade surplus and the US budget deficit. IMF, coupled with the NY Fed's suggested corrections, have #CNY around 25% undervalued. #CNY has risen by ~4% this year, despite historically wide interest rate differentials. (1/2)

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

It is a small down payment. What about the other imbalance? The OECD estimates that the US budget deficit will reach 8% of GDP this year, though the CBO projects unchanged at 5.8%. Zilch at best. The Beltway bloviates as it does not appear Trump & Xi discussed FX. #glasshouses (2/2)

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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

There are two significant global imbalances--China's trade surplus and the US budget deficit. IMF, coupled with the NY Fed's suggested corrections, have #CNY around 25% undervalued. #CNY has risen by ~4% this year, despite historically wide interest rate differentials. (1/2)

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The $eur has frayed the $1.14 level, where nearly 1.8 bln euros of options expire today and another 3.1 bln euros expire there on Monday and 2.4 bln euros on Tuesday. Are option expirations useful information? www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/soft...

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

US rate and oil are a little softer today and this has helped take a little shine off the greenback. Japan plays up coordination with the US and the $JPY is snapping a five-day slide. Has pendulum of US rate expectations reached a peak? See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/soft...

marctomarket.com

Softer US Interest Rates Helps the Greenback Steady and Talk of US-Japan Coordination Snaps the Yen's Five-Day Slide

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Japan plays up coordination with the US, and with the help of lower US rates, lifts the $JPY for the first time in six sessions. Large $euro options struck at $1.14 today and next few days are in play. Fed expectations may be near peak. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/soft...

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

US rate and oil are a little softer today and this has helped take a little shine off the greenback. Japan plays up coordination with the US and the $JPY is snapping a five-day slide. Has pendulum of US rate expectations reached a peak? See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/soft...

marctomarket.com

Softer US Interest Rates Helps the Greenback Steady and Talk of US-Japan Coordination Snaps the Yen's Five-Day Slide

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The PBOC seems to have signaled a period of consolidation for the #RMB. In a statement following its quarterly meeting yesterday, the PBOC said it would “prevent the ‘herd effect’ and self-reinforcement of irrational expectations" in fx market.

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

USD rules the roost. US seems best positioned to deal with shocks. The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker sees 5.1% GDP in Q3--better than China--. Expansionary fiscal and Fed behind the curve--says the mkt. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/no-k...

marctomarket.com

No Kings but King Dollar

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.