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Marc Chandler

@marcmakingsense.bsky.social
205 followers 73 following 996 posts

Political economist Focus global capital markets

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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 7h
What happens when #capitalism gets so good at producing wealth that the problem is no longer too little, but too much? That's the question at the heart of my new book, Surplus. Out November 3. Preorder: @GP Publishing and Prometheus Books amazon.com/dp/1493096656
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 7h
The third quarter closed with the world economy looking more resilient than it has any right to look. The wars in Iran and Ukraine continue. Energy markets have been disrupted. Yields surged. October outlook here: www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/octo...
marctomarket.com
October 2026 Monthly
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 9h
October monthly drops--economic resilience, monetary policy, AI, and more. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/octo...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Pressure on French bonds continues. 10yr yield up 4 bp and Germany yield down 11 bp. Diff ~155 bp. $euro soft ahead of US jobs report, while CHF is strongest in G10. Italy's 10-year yield is 1 bp softer. France is in cross-hairs. Difficult to see near-term solution.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Key tension that may be resolved with the US jobs data: US 2yr yield is off 14 bp since Monday. Odds of Oct Fed hike is falling for 4th session. Now ~25% vs. ~70% Monday. Yet #USD remains firm. See marctomarket.com/2026/10/us-j...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The greenback’s resilience is notable because comments by Williams and Jefferson suggest that the Fed’s leadership does not see the sense of urgency that was reflected in the market. Odds of Oct hike slashed to 25% from 70% Monday. What gives? www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/us-j...
marctomarket.com
US Jobs Report to Help Resolve Tension between Firm Greenback and Softer Short-Term Rates
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Key tension that may be resolved with the US jobs data: US 2yr yield is off 14 bp since Monday. Odds of Oct Fed hike is falling for 4th session. Now ~25% vs. ~70% Monday. Yet #USD remains firm. See marctomarket.com/2026/10/us-j...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
US 2 yr yld is dropping hard...now off nearly 10 bp. The 10 yr yld is off nearly 4 bp, but that is 10 bp from its highs. #USD holding up, I look for it to wilt with this move in rates.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The #USD is bid despite the pullback in expectations for a Fed hike at the end of this month. $JPY sold on the uninspiring Tankan and BOJ meeting record, which has seen chances of a BOJ hike this month recede, too. French/Italian budget pressures. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/new-...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
A new month begins, but the market dynamics are familiar. Rising oil prices and rising yields have lifted the greenback broadly. The euro and Canadian dollar have been sold to new lows for the year. www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/new-...
marctomarket.com
New Month, Same Market Dynamics
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The #USD is bid despite the pullback in expectations for a Fed hike at the end of this month. $JPY sold on the uninspiring Tankan and BOJ meeting record, which has seen chances of a BOJ hike this month recede, too. French/Italian budget pressures. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/10/new-...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Many people still cite theory without testing it regarding rate differentials and the dollar-yen exchange rate. My point is that the changes in the US rates offer a better explanation of the changes in the exchange rate.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
NY Fed President Williams, who has a permanent vote on the FOMC as its vice chair, open speaks as part of the Fed’s leadership, and downplayed the sense of urgency. Implied odd of a Fed hike in Oct has fallen from ~70% Monday to ~40% now. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/the-...
marctomarket.com
The Lack of Urgency Expressed by NY Fed President Williams Pushes Rates Lower and Weighs on the Greenback
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
NY Fed Williams lack of urgency saw mkt expectations for a Oct Fed hike pared. #USD trades heavier. PBOC #USD fix at new lows ahead of week-long holiday that starts tomorrow. Today's PCE and deflator anticipated. Jobs more important. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/the-...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The US dollar continues to trade with a firmer bias. We are still struck by the over-bought technical momentum indicators, arguably encouraged by the aggressive pricing of the trajectory of Fed policy. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/the-...
marctomarket.com
The Dollar Remains Firm and the RBA Delivered its Fourth Hike of the Year, though Sounded Less Hawkish
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The US dollar continues to trade with a firmer bias. We are still struck by the over-bought technical momentum indicators, arguably encouraged by the aggressive pricing of the trajectory of Fed policy. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/the-...
marctomarket.com
The Dollar Remains Firm and the RBA Delivered its Fourth Hike of the Year, though Sounded Less Hawkish
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
#USD remains firm, but rates are a little softer, and daily momentum indicators are stretched. Can the pendulum toward Oct hike swing further ahead of Friday jobs? RBA hiked as widely expected, but Gov Bullock was seemed less hawkish. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/the-...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Oil prices jump, despite reports of increased flows as US rejects Iranian offer & brings more forces into the region. Higher oil sends rates higher and gives USD a bid. PBOC fixed USD sharply lower, by most since April. JPN steps up verbal intervention. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/war-...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The US has rejected Iran’s latest offer and appears to be moving more force into the region. Oil prices have jumped, which is also serving to push up yields. The dollar is firmer against most of the G10 currencies. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/war-...
marctomarket.com
War in Middle East Sends Oil Prices and Yields Higher, Underpins the Dollar,
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Oil prices jump, despite reports of increased flows as US rejects Iranian offer & brings more forces into the region. Higher oil sends rates higher and gives USD a bid. PBOC fixed USD sharply lower, by most since April. JPN steps up verbal intervention. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/war-...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The #USD rally we anticipated looks like it is ending. Fed expectations swung hard but tough to see more with the upcoming data. Momentum indicators are stretch as USD tested or approached important chart points. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/week...
marctomarket.com
Week Ahead: Dollar Bulls may be Challenged
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Week Ahead--$USD bulls face over-extended momentum, extreme swing in pendulum of expectations for Fed tightening (~100 bp next 12 months) and PCE deflator revisions and softer jobs growth and auto sales. Looking for near-term top: www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/week...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
There are two significant global imbalances--China's trade surplus and the US budget deficit. IMF, coupled with the NY Fed's suggested corrections, have #CNY around 25% undervalued. #CNY has risen by ~4% this year, despite historically wide interest rate differentials. (1/2)
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
There are two significant global imbalances--China's trade surplus and the US budget deficit. IMF, coupled with the NY Fed's suggested corrections, have #CNY around 25% undervalued. #CNY has risen by ~4% this year, despite historically wide interest rate differentials. (1/2)
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The $eur has frayed the $1.14 level, where nearly 1.8 bln euros of options expire today and another 3.1 bln euros expire there on Monday and 2.4 bln euros on Tuesday. Are option expirations useful information? www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/soft...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
US rate and oil are a little softer today and this has helped take a little shine off the greenback. Japan plays up coordination with the US and the $JPY is snapping a five-day slide. Has pendulum of US rate expectations reached a peak? See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/soft...
marctomarket.com
Softer US Interest Rates Helps the Greenback Steady and Talk of US-Japan Coordination Snaps the Yen's Five-Day Slide
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Japan plays up coordination with the US, and with the help of lower US rates, lifts the $JPY for the first time in six sessions. Large $euro options struck at $1.14 today and next few days are in play. Fed expectations may be near peak. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/soft...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
US rate and oil are a little softer today and this has helped take a little shine off the greenback. Japan plays up coordination with the US and the $JPY is snapping a five-day slide. Has pendulum of US rate expectations reached a peak? See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/soft...
marctomarket.com
Softer US Interest Rates Helps the Greenback Steady and Talk of US-Japan Coordination Snaps the Yen's Five-Day Slide
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The PBOC seems to have signaled a period of consolidation for the #RMB. In a statement following its quarterly meeting yesterday, the PBOC said it would “prevent the ‘herd effect’ and self-reinforcement of irrational expectations" in fx market.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
USD rules the roost. US seems best positioned to deal with shocks. The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker sees 5.1% GDP in Q3--better than China--. Expansionary fiscal and Fed behind the curve--says the mkt. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/no-k...
marctomarket.com
No Kings but King Dollar
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
USD rules the roost. US seems best positioned to deal with shocks. The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker sees 5.1% GDP in Q3--better than China--. Expansionary fiscal and Fed behind the curve--says the mkt. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/no-k...
marctomarket.com
No Kings but King Dollar
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
#USD remains firm, underpinned by the surge in US interest rates. Japan returns from long holiday weekend and is greeted by as weaker $JPY. Norway hiked. Sweden says it likely will before the end of the yr. SNB stands pat and lift CPI projections. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/no-k...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The US dollar is stronger against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies today. The greenback's gains come despite softer oil and stronger EMU PMI. PBOC fixed USD higher for the 1st time in 11 sessions. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/gree...
marctomarket.com
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#USD is bid across the board and key chart areas have been approached. Stronger than expected flash PMI did nothing for the $eur, where options for 1.8 bln euros at $1.14 expire today. Disappointing Australia PMI weighs on A$. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/gree...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The US dollar is stronger against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies today. The greenback's gains come despite softer oil and stronger EMU PMI. PBOC fixed USD higher for the 1st time in 11 sessions. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/gree...
marctomarket.com
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#USD is bid across the board and key chart areas have been approached. Stronger than expected flash PMI did nothing for the $eur, where options for 1.8 bln euros at $1.14 expire today. Disappointing Australia PMI weighs on A$. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/gree...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
1. PBOC has fixed #USD lower for the past 10 sessions. 2. Little reaction by the Beltway. 3. Trump and Xi meet. FX does not seem on the agenda. 4. #RMB is one of the strongest currencies this year, despite the huge interest rate gap. 5. #RMB is up 4.3% ytd (cont)
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Today is the anniversary of the 1985 Plaza Agreement. Calls for a new one, to force China to revalue the yuan, is wishful thinking more than political realist strategy. Here is why: www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/plaz...
marctomarket.com
Plaza Agreement, R.I.P.
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Ahead of the North American session, the US dollar is mostly a little softer. It has initially extended its gains in the Asia Pacific session, where Japan is still on holiday, but has retreated in the European morning. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/lowe...
marctomarket.com
Lower Oil Prices Could Help Snap the Nearly Two-Week Rise in the US Two-Year Rate
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Optimism sends Nov WTI to a 2-week low and could help cap the US 2yr yield which has not fallen since Sept 3. Lower oil offset the deterioration of UK govt finances and the 10yr Gilt yield is off nearly 4 bp. PBOC fixes #USD lower again. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/lowe...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The US dollar is mostly consolidating in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Japanese markets are closed until Thursday, and despite the softer rates the yen is off about 0.20% through the European morning to rival weakness of CAD and NOK . www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/pboc...
marctomarket.com
PBOC Lifts Yuan Further While Greenback Consolidates and Oil Tumbles
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
#USD is trading quietly, mostly within the ranges seen before the weekend. Japanese mkt closed until Thursday, but $JPY is softer. Oct WTI is lower for 4th consecutive session, ostensibly helping bonds and stocks. PBOC continues to signal stronger $RMB. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/pboc...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Week Ahead: Politics may be more important than economics. Two German state elections. Strong AfD showing and poor CDU could impact national govt. Xi-Trump meets--trade, Iran, AI, rare earths--more salient than appreciating $RMB. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/week...
marctomarket.com
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi Meeting Highlight
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, breaks down global capital markets, fx central banks, and macro trends daily.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Week Ahead--Trump/Xi meeting featured. Despite calls to the contrary, fx is not the key issue--trade, Iran, AI, appear more salient. $RMB is one of the strongest currencies. Issue is speed not direction. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/week...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Near JPY157.85, the #USD is up 2.75% this week against $JPY. If sustained, it would be the large weekly advance in nearly two years. The 6-7 bp rise in US rates seems a more important factor. Japan's two-year yield slipped lower today.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Since the end of July, the Fed's custody holdings of Tsys for foreign central banks have dropped by ~$41 bln. It brings this year's decline to ~$137 bln. Some officials may have shifted custodians and some may have liquidated. Mkt offers custody and repo services too.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Since the end of July, the Fed's custody holdings of Tsys for foreign central banks have dropped by ~$41 bln. It brings this year's decline to ~$137 bln. Some officials may have shifted custodians and some may have liquidated. Mkt offers custody and repo services too.
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
#USD mostly consolidating. Main exception is the $JPY, which has been sold aggressively after the BOJ delivered the widely-touted hike. The US dollar reached JPY158. PBOC continued to signal firm yuan through the fix. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/bank...
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
#USD mostly consolidating in narrow ranges. The excitement has come via the $JPY, which was sold after the BOJ delivered the widely expected hike. This is the pattern seen recently with the US as the exception. www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/bank...
marctomarket.com
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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
#USD mostly consolidating. Main exception is the $JPY, which has been sold aggressively after the BOJ delivered the widely-touted hike. The US dollar reached JPY158. PBOC continued to signal firm yuan through the fix. See www.marctomarket.com/2026/09/bank...
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