Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 12/08/2026A thought-provoking and important paper: the diversity within pro-democracy coalitions may make them more likely to win elections, but it also makes it more challenging for them to govern effectively. And, as the analysis shows, there is much to learn from most different case comparisons. 172
Reposted by Marc JacobTadeas Cely @celytadeas.bsky.social · 25/10/2025⚠️New paper fothcoming in POQ! ⚠️ With @marcjacob.bsky.social and @seanjwestwood.bsky.social, we worried about norm-violating local politicians rising to higher office. We tested when voters defect from such politicians in local, state and federal races. osf.io/preprints/ps... 🧵... 2245
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 11/10/2025In short, heterogeneous coalitions do backfire electorally, but mainly because voters feel distant from the coalition’s overall composition, not just because they dislike a particular partner party. More here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.....papers.ssrn.comVoting for Pre-Electoral CoalitionsPre-electoral coalitions can improve parties' electoral prospects but may lose appeal when they combine ideologically diverse members. To analyze when coalition 151
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 11/10/2025Zooming in on this case, @ugurozdemir.bsky.social and I have examined when too much diversity in pre-electoral coalitions backfires; that is, when they reduce support from voters who might have backed any of the constituent parties if they had run separately. 130
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 11/10/2025A case in point for this decision problem is the 2023 Turkish general election. A highly diverse opposition alliance united behind a single presidential candidate, while the main opposition party (CHP) opened its parliamentary lists to candidates from smaller allied parties. 120
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 11/10/2025Party leaders often face a tough choice: should they join forces with other parties in pre-electoral coalitions or run alone? The stakes are even higher when opposition parties try to unseat an authoritarian incumbent. 193
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 23/03/2025Thanks so much for visiting, Ben --you're doing excellent work! 020
Reposted by Marc JacobRudi Bachmann @bachmannrudi.bsky.social · 10/02/2025. @notredame.bsky.social @robert-habeck.de 1303
Reposted by Marc JacobKellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame @kellogginstitute.bsky.social · 10/02/2025The Kellogg Institute is now officially on Bluesky! Please spread the word and follow us! 5216
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 16/12/2024Haha, you just caught me ;) I'm not from Baden-Württemberg, though. 120
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 06/12/2024Consider following the wonderful Kellogg Institute community at the University of Notre Dame: go.bsky.app/CoZB5N8. Kellogg is a vibrant group of graduate, visiting, and faculty fellows working on topics related to democracy and human development worldwide. 060
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 03/12/2024"Backsliding occurs either when citizens knowingly consent to erosion of democracy because they find the incumbent highly appealing or when citizens unconditionally oppose the incumbent, so that the incumbent can remain in office only by backsliding." (Luo/Przeworski 2023, QJPS) 1150
Reposted by Marc JacobProMarket @promarket.bsky.social · 20/02/2024A new Stigler Center working paper proposes a mechanism linking legislative gridlock to voters’ support for candidates who hold extreme policy positions. @marcjacob.bsky.social, @bartonelee2.bsky.social (Stigler Affiliate Fellow), @grattonecon.bsky.social (UNSW): www.chicagobooth.edu/-/media/rese... 042
Reposted by Marc JacobScholars Working on East European Politics @sweep-workshop.bsky.social · 30/01/2024✨ We're back this Friday (2/2) at 11AM EST w/ @hannafolsz.bsky.social and @slucek.bsky.social (Stanford) presenting "Losing my Religion? How Partisan Polarization Drives or Tempers Secularization" + @marcjacob.bsky.social (Stanford) discussing. Link+paper via email list: eepg-workshop.github.io 032
Reposted by Marc JacobPolarization Research Lab @prl.bsky.social · 01/12/202315 days left to apply to present at PRL's Annual Meeting March 21-22 in NOLA! polarizationresearchlab.org/annual-meeti... poliskypolarizationresearchlab.orgAnnual MeetingMeetings and Events Annual Meetings The 2024 PRL Annual Meeting will take place in New Orleans on March 21-22, 2024! This boutique conference brings together the best and most innovative wo… 011
Reposted by Marc JacobBarton Lee @bartonelee2.bsky.social · 15/11/2023Is gridlock causing polarization? 🧐 Proud to be interviewed and have my work with @marcjacob.bsky.social and @grattonecon.bsky.social featured on my favorite podcast! Check it out — link below 👇 Thank you for the invitation Wiola Dziuda, Anthony Fowler, and William Howell t.co/v4Otr7cMSit.coNot Another Politics Podcast: Is Gridlock Causing Polarization? on Apple PodcastsShow Not Another Politics Podcast, Ep Is Gridlock Causing Polarization? - Nov 15, 2023 1103
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 17/10/20232) As Manes already pointed out, support in the cities was among the lowest in 2019. So the vote share was already comparatively low there. Also in the 2019 election, PiS support did not substantially increase in the cities, but almost everywhere else. 010
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 17/10/2023I was surprised by this as well. I can think of two factors. 1) In relative terms, both cities and more rural regions welcomed refugees: Powiat Grójecki, Wrocław, Powiat Pruszkowski, Przemyśl, and Powiat Rawski, along with Warsaw, saw the largest inflow relative to their populations. 020
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 17/10/2023The party could win additional % across the country in 2019 compared to 2015, so the level of support was quite high in 2019 even in the Northeast. But I agree that floor effects may be present. 020
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 17/10/2023This is an important point. Just to provide a bit more context: In 2019, PiS performed well even in the Northeast. 220
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 17/10/2023The 2023 election was fundamentally different; this time, the opposition, not PiS, mobilized more voters. 060
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 17/10/2023There was already a substantial increase in turnout in the 2019 elections, during which PiS gained compared to 2015. These electoral gains were mainly related to improved economic conditions and public goods provision (see papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....).papers.ssrn.comUndemocratic Incumbents and the Shifting Electorate: Evidence from Polish ElectionsDo voters withdraw their support from undemocratic incumbents who seek re-election due to concerns about democracy? I argue that citizens can only hold their go 060
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 17/10/2023and 3) the relative number of Ukrainian refugees seems unrelated to PiS punishment. 1130
Marc Jacob @marcjacob.bsky.social · 17/10/2023Three tentative patterns emerged in last Sunday’s Polish elections at the regional (powiaty) level: 74721
Reposted by Marc JacobMonika Nalepa @monikanalepa.bsky.social · 15/10/2023Based on exit polls in Poland: Prawo i Sprawiedliwość - 200 seats, Koalicja Obywatelska - 163 seats, Trzecia Droga - 55 seats, Lewica – 30 mandatów, Konfederacja – 12 seats. What this means is that the anti-PiS coalition has 231 seats and can form a cabinet. 3228
Reposted by Marc JacobApurav Bhatiya @apuravbhatiya.bsky.social · 15/10/2023POLECONUK Webinars: Our next event is on Monday, 16 Oct 2023. @bartonelee2.bsky.social will present "From Gridlock to Polarization", with @marcjacob.bsky.social and @grattonecon.bsky.social. Join us at 3 pm UK time! 033