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MacV

@macvsog.bsky.social
599 followers 2.4K following 239 posts

Geopolitics & Security | Ex Schola Agentes in Rebus | Collegium Regale Londinense

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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
It's been a while since I logged in! A lot has happened in the world...
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Strategically, Ukraine should rapidly exploit temporary radar voids. Maximize drone swarm ops, SEAD sorties, and deep penetration raids now. Russia’s window to stabilize coverage minimal; decisive Ukrainian strikes could reshape battlefield advantage decisively. (6/6)
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Psych blow profound: Truck-launched, low-tech drones neutralizing multi-million dollar AEW assets erodes Russian operational confidence. Moscow forced into costly countermeasures dispersal, enhanced base defence further diverting resources from frontline ops. (5/6)
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Ukrainian HIMARS/Storm Shadow strikes benefit as reduced AEW weakens Russian long-range missile targeting, early launch detection, and accurate interceptor handoffs. Increased window to maneuver, target command nodes, and disrupt logistics across the deep rear. (4/6)
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Russian fighter CAPs lose radar-backed SA, increasingly reliant on fragmented GCI. Ukrainian F-16s and MiG-29s gain freedom to ambush bombers and strike drones without alerting IADS. Reduced Russian sortie rate, higher bomber attrition risk; precision strikes impaired. (3/6)
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
With fewer A-50s, Russia faces tactical trade-offs: either leave southern Crimea or Belgorod exposed. Ukrainian pilots and cruise missiles exploit blind spots, leveraging terrain masking and low-level ingress to evade radar and SAM kill zones. Vulnerability drastically heightened. (2/6)
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Losing two more A-50 "Mainstay" AEW aircraft cripples Russia’s aerial C2 network. Massive gaps now emerge in radar coverage, degrading early warning, integrated SAM performance, and deep-strike bomber coordination. Russia forced into defensive crouch, ceding air tempo to Ukraine. (1/6)
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Russia’s “peace plan” is an ultimatum: give up land, stay neutral, accept no justice. It’s not a compromise—it’s a demand for surrende.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
U.S.: Ceasefire first, limited recognition, reparations for Ukraine. Russia: Ukrainian withdrawal first, full recognition, no reparations. Vast gap. No basis for real talks.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Moscow’s draft says no side can claim compensation for war damages. The U.S. draft would have compensated Ukraine. Russia wants to wreck the country—then walk away scot-free.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Russia demands Ukraine become neutral, reject all WMDs, and ban foreign troops on its soil. This clause was not in the U.S. peace draft. Effectively, it would neuter Ukraine’s future security options.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Russia wants global recognition that Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson & Zaporizhzhia are Russian territory. U.S. draft only suggested recognition of Crimea (de jure) and others (de facto). Moscow wants the full prize. Russia
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Russia’s Peace Proposal = Capitulation... At Turkey peace talks, Russia demanded Ukraine withdraw all troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson & Zaporizhzhia—only then would Russia agree to a ceasefire. Ukraine still controls parts of these. A non-starter.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
Russia's military building up at Finland's border over potential NATO clash, WSJ reports kyivindependent.com/russia-milit...
kyivindependent.com
Russia's military building up at Finland's border over potential NATO clash, WSJ reports
These efforts include expanding military bases near the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, around 160 kilometers (100 miles) east of Finland, the planned site for a new headquarters that could potentially ...
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Phoenica: Toward a Programming Language of Trade, Trust, and Maritime Memory medium.com/@macvsogjc/p...
medium.com
Phoenica: Toward a Programming Language of Trade, Trust, and Maritime Memory
I. The Orangery Hypothesis
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
To grasp this shift is to understand that the international order was not dismantled but abandoned left to wither by those who found it inconvenient. We now inhabit a world where strength, not consensus, determines outcomes. The only question is how we choose to navigate it.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
The age of legal frameworks and diplomatic norms has been eclipsed by one of transactional politics, where force, wealth, and personal authority set the terms. The strongmen cut deals, redraw maps, and discard rules, while those clinging to past illusions are left behind.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
The idea that nations are bound by treaties and institutions has given way to a simpler truth: power belongs to those willing to wield it. These strongmen do not consult history; they rewrite it. The rest of us must either reconcile ourselves to this or learn how to resist it.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
The international rules-based order, once upheld as a triumph of civilization over brute force, has collapsed with barely a murmur. In its place stands a world dictated by strongmen Putin, Trump, Xi Jinping who make deals as they please, unburdened by law, precedent, or principle.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Trump says he thinks the annexation of Greenland will happen. Trump is taking a leaf out of Putin's playbook. This is unprecedented, and the international rules based order no longer exists. www.cnbc.com/2025/03/13/t...
cnbc.com
Trump on U.S. annexation of Greenland: 'I think it'll happen'
"We don't want to be Americans. No, we don't want to be Danes. We want to be Greenlanders," said Jens-Frederik Nielsen of the island's Demokraatit party.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Fixed *СОВ. СЕКР.//ОСН//РАЗР. ГРУ, СВР
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
EUs President comments on the proposed cease fire talls.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
It should be noted that Viktor Sobolev is a member of the Communist Party of Russia which has a track record for rather stronger rhetoric.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
BREAKING Russian State Duma Deputy Viktor Sobolev on the ceasefire proposal: “absolutely unacceptable" and goes on to say that such a truce would only 'play into the hands of Ukrainian fascists', allowing them to 'regroup and rearm'.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Dark Storm Team collaborates with pro-Russian groups, merging ideological and financial motives. Their actions highlight the evolving cyber battlefield, where hacktivists act as digital mercenaries. Governments must fortify cyber defenses—this threat isn’t going away. 🔍💻 3/3
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Who is Dark Storm Team? A pro-Palestinian hacktivist group, they target entities seen as adversaries to Palestinian interests. Beyond DDoS attacks, they engage in cybercrime, offering DDoS-for-hire and database breaches. Their reach extends to NATO, Israel, and allies. ⚠️🛡️ 2/3
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
🚨 Today, X (formerly Twitter) suffered a massive DDoS attack, with Dark Storm Team claiming responsibility. Elon Musk confirmed the disruption, highlighting the scale and coordination. This attack underscores the growing threat of hacktivist-driven cyber warfare. 🌐💻 1/3
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
Norwegian flags stir a flurry in Kursk www.thebarentsobserver.com/news/norwegi...
thebarentsobserver.com
Norwegian flags stir a flurry in Kursk
The owner of a shop that sells clothes marked with Norwegian flags near the war zone in the Kursk region is accused of 'agitating for the enemy.'
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
While Trump casts doubt on NATO policy, B-52s make first ever bomb drops over Lapland www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/whi...
thebarentsobserver.com
While Trump casts doubt on NATO policy, B-52s make first ever bomb drops over Lapland
This is the first time bombs have been dropped by United States strategic bombers, hitting targets in Rovajärvi firing range, a short 100 km from Finland's northern border with Russia.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
There are some terrible scenes coming out of Syria at the moment. HTS carrying out reprisal executions against allawite civilians including children. Grim watching. It's clear the honeymoon period is over and the challenge in managing the deep rooted sectarian hatred within HTS will continue.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Despite 🇺🇸 scaling back intel sharing, 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇵🇱 also provide SIGINT, satellite data & HUMINT incl. via NATO & EU partners. Kyiv won’t be left blind conpletely blind. Western ISR assets still monitor 🇷🇺 movements. Intelligence systems will adapt, and warfighting will evolve to meet this. 🛰️📡
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
BREAKING: Norway increases support to Ukraine to $7.8bn. Støre says: "Europe is now in a historically important phase" www.nrk.no/norge/store_...
nrk.no
Støre: Ukraina-støtten økes til 85 milliarder kroner
Partiene på Stortinget er enige om å øke støtten til Ukraina med 50 milliarder kroner til 85 milliarder i 2025. Det kom frem etter et møte mellom de parlamentariske lederne på Stortinget.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
UK and France 'refining peace plan' to present to US within 'days not weeks' news.sky.com/story/trump-...
news.sky.com
Ukraine war latest: Russia threatens all of Europe, Macron tells France; White House defends Musk's lack of a suit
Zelenskyy's top aide says American and Ukrainian teams have agreed to meet again. Earlier, the US cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Listen to the latest episode of The World below as you scro...
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
President Zelensky makes a statement about the meeting in the Oval Office with President Trump and VP Vance last Friday. x.com/ZelenskyyUa/...
x.com
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський on X: "I would like to reiterate Ukraine’s commitment to peace. None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under" / X
I would like to reiterate Ukraine’s commitment to peace. None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
Something morally repugnant about trying to make such a deal with an ally being invaded. "We won't help you unless we get your minerals."..
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Mussayev’s 'Krasnov' claim raises possibilities. KGB’s 1987 interest in Trump is clear via Shvets, Kalugin. Hidden records might reveal Trump as a covert asset. The truth remains unclear. Please like and repost!
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
After 1987, Trump ran ads in U.S. papers (e.g., NYT, Sept 1987) criticizing NATO, U.S. policy, echoing KGB lines. Ex-KGB Gen. Oleg Kalugin confirms Soviet targeting of U.S. elites. A pattern?
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Czech StB tracked Trump in 1980s, sharing data with KGB by 1987. During Moscow visit, surveillance may have intensified. Mussayev’s claim could strengthen the existing allegations of a covert HUMINT recruitment operation.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Shvets, active 1980s D.C., notes Trump was susceptible to flattery during 1987 Moscow trip. KGB likely surveilled him at National Hotel. 'Krasnov' could be a code name from this effort.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Trump visited Moscow, July 1987, invited by Soviet Ambassador Yuri Dubinin. Ex-KGB Major Yuri Shvets says KGB used flattery, anti-Western propaganda on Trump. This might suggest recruitment.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Mussayev, ex-KGB officer, led Kazakhstan’s KNB (1997–2001), now exiled Vienna. Trained at Minsk KGB school, 1980s. Known for bold statements. His 1987 role may hint at deeper ties.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Alnur Mussayev, ex-Kazakh KNB chief, posted 20 Feb 2025: 'In 1987, I served in KGB 6th Directorate, Moscow. Recruited U.S. businessman Donald Trump, age 40, as 'Krasnov'.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
There is a lot of discussion on various platforms about US funds sent to Ukraine and if they're missing. There are a lot of gullible people buying straight into Putin's playbook. Please read some credible sources on this. www.csis.org/analysis/whe...
csis.org
Where Is the Missing $100 Billion in U.S. Aid for Ukraine?
“I don’t know where all the money is"—CSIS expert Mark Cancian covers the facts behind Ukraine’s “missing” $100 billion.
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 16/02/2025
If anyone needs some lazy Sunday TV watching... I can recommend 'The Making of "The Battle of Britain' with a rather cool Michael Caine presenting. youtu.be/q9feW93AZf8?...
youtu.be
The making of "The Battle of Britain" movie (1969).
YouTube video by Gunit
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
www.tv2.no/nyheter/dans...
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Europe must act NOW: 💰Defence spending to min. 3% GDP 🪖Expand military and for full-scale conventional warfare 🏭 Grow defence industry x10 fold ☢️ Maintain nuclear deterrence 🎯 Keep training for multi-domain operations 🏗️ security capacity building in frontline NATO nations 🕵️‍♂️ Enhance counter-espionage
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
⏳ Takeaway: The window for action is closing. If NATO underestimates 🇷🇺's trajectory, Europe faces its gravest security threat since the Cold War. Readiness today determines survival tomorrow. 🚨 5/7
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
🛰️ NATO rearmament is critical. FE warns that if the US disengages and NATO fails to match 🇷🇺's buildup, deterrence collapses. Forward defense and rapid deployment must be reinforced now. 🛡️📡 5/7
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
🌍 Hybrid warfare will escalate first. Cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation are already shaping the battlespace. 🇷🇺 seeks to undermine NATO cohesion before any kinetic action. ⚔️ 4/7
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MacV @macvsog.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
📊 Within 6 months, 🇷🇺 could wage a "local" war against a bordering nation. Within 2 years, it could pose a credible military threat to select NATO states. This timeline depends on Western response & deterrence. ⏳ 3/7
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