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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 11h

Wow, that's a spectacular presentation of pioneering ocean/earth system science. I discovered that the Alfred Wegener Institut has made a nice scan of this volume: epic.awi.de/id/eprint/34... They have several others from the GEOSECS cruises; search: epic.awi.de/cgi/facet/si...

epic.awi.de

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Yep, the Marshall Fire came immediately to mind. I was much closer, in Louisville, but outside of the evac zone. Scary as hell. I believe the first major wildland-into-to-dense-suburbs fire in Colorado was the Waldo Canyon Fire, June 2012. 346 homes and 2 lives lost.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Upstream mgmt: - Emergency releases of 0.7-1.0 maf total from Flaming Gorge to prop up Powell levels, from April 2026 to April 2027. 2/2

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Yes, both. Here's what I saw from CO: Snowmelt: - Heat wave in late March wiped out the snowpack below 10,000', causing that early bump/peak in April - Later peaks in snowmelt runoff got truncated by UB ag and muni use (lower than normal overall, but using much higher % of the May-July flows). 1/2

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

Oh man, that is sad news. Rex was a dendro-mensch. He loved trees, he loved tree rings, and he loved people. And he was an artesian well of dendro knowledge--it flowed out without much effort.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

It gets weirder: The main source for this piece: "Patrick Brown, Head of Climate Analytics at Interactive Brokers" is this guy: grist.org/science/patr... Having called out imagined bias in climate-science publishing, he's now going to fix imagined flaws in cat modeling. Great.

grist.org

A climate scientist criticized his own study. Is he a hero or a villain?

Patrick Brown is trying to tell a complicated story about climate change. Many don't want to hear it.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Wow! This was less than 3 days after Denver's flood-of-record on Cherry Creek and the South Platte River (there's a paragraph about it in the "Arkansas River Flood Bad One" story). That was one prodigious low-pressure system to cause flooding on the mainstem S. Platte, Arkansas, *and* Rio Grande.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Here's the NOAA CBRFC Powell inflows forecast page and 2026 forecast evolution plot: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/dbdata/stati...

cbrfc.noaa.gov

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

For the Colorado River, 2026 is one for the record books--in a bad way. NOAA CBRFC's May 1st (50% exc) forecast now has Lake Powell April-July inflows at 800 KAF, 13% of average, lower than 2002. Powell got 2200 KAF of inflows Oct 1 - April 1, making 2026 an abnormally "front-loaded" water year.

Graph showing the NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center's forecasts of April to July inflows to Lake Powell from 1991 to 2026, with colored lines showing how each season's forecast evolved from January through July. The latest Forecast, May 1st 2026, is the lowest outlook for this time of year since at least 1991, at 13% of average inflows.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

That's pretty crazy. Looks like the two big diverters just upstream (Grand Valley and Orchard Mesa) ramped up in late March-early April. In the past week they've been at ~1000-1200 cfs combined--which is close to their average diversion for this time of year.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Now I'm thinking pondos and/or firs in the background--having a scale-perception issue.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Nice! Where is this? And what's the species mix? I think I'm seeing a white pine young'un (limber or SW), P-J in the background, and some old pondos (flat tops) in the middle ground?

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

...and often more in the early season, when widespread Rx burning in the Southeast really ramps up. The US *wildfire* statistics from NIFC as of April 10 say ~1.7 million acres burned so far in 2026 compared to the recent 10-year average of ~0.7M acres. (2/2) www.nifc.gov/fire-informa...

nifc.gov

Statistics | National Interagency Fire Center

* Source for statistics is the Incident Management Situation Report published by the National Interagency Coordination Center.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

The take-home from this plot is roughly correct: In 2026, U.S. wildfires through March have burned >twice the average area burned. But the "wildfire" dataset shown is based on MODIS sat images and lumps wildfires with prescribed (Rx) burns. Rx burns account for ~2/3 of annual US area burned (1/2)

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Here's the NOAA CBRFC Powell inflows forecast page and 2026 forecast evolution plot: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/dbdata/stati...

cbrfc.noaa.gov

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

March was...not helpful. NOAA CBRFC's April 1st (50% exceedance) forecast now has Lake Powell April-July inflows at 1400 KAF, 22% of average. Only 2002 (963 KAF) and 1977 (1208 KAF) ended up with lower inflows than that. If dry conditions continue through spring, 2026 could drop below 2002.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

And here's the NOAA CBRFC Powell inflows forecast page and 2026 forecast evolution plot: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/dbdata/stati...

cbrfc.noaa.gov

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

NOAA CBRFC's Mar 1st official forecast for Lake Powell April-July inflows is out, so here's an update of my "spaghetti" plot. Despite better snowfall in February, the most-probable forecast remains bleak at 36% of average. Even an unusually wet Mar-May would only get us to ~65% of average.

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Reposted by Jeff Lukas

Colorado Climate Center @climate.colostate.edu · 09/02/2026

The mountain snowpack so far this winter is in bad shape. Long-time Coloradans might remember two other terrible winters for snow: 1976-77 and 1980-81. Our latest blog post takes a look at how this year compares to those snow droughts of the past. #cowx

climate.colostate.edu

How does this year compare to the snow droughts of the past? - Colorado Climate Blog

Colorado’s mountain snowpack is in bad shape this year. It’s been extremely warm, and snowstorms have been few and far between. Based on data from the SNOTEL network, the amount of water stored in the...

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

Given the latest NOAA CBRFC inflow forecast for Lake Powell, I dusted off this plot from my Twitter days and updated it. The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely. h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

Looking E from Fraser, CO at the crest of the Front Range (Indian Peaks), January 2019; feel free to use w/ attribution

Photograph of a large lenticular cloud with horizontal striations, lit up orange by the setting sun, hovering over the snowy mountains of Front Range of Colorado. Taken by Jeff Lukas in Fraser, Colorado in January 2019.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Not good! If you haven't used the "Records" feature on the NRCS iMap, it's showing a further level of bleak: about half of the SNOTELs in CO and UT with >20-yr records are at their lowest (red) or 2nd-lowest (orange) SWE level for February 2.

Map of the western U.S. showing the locations of about 1000 automatic snow-monitoring sites (SNOTELs), of which about 200 are filled in with red or orange, signifying that the water content of the snowpack is at its record-lowest or 2nd-lowest level for February 2nd. The red and orange sites are most prevalent in Colorado, Utah, Idaho, and Oregon.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

The true "why?" of this story is a little buried: This is part of Trump's retaliation against CO Gov. Polis for his recent refusal to pardon state-convicted 2020 election conspirator Tina Peters. An egregiously impulsive and reckless move with far-reaching consequences for the nation.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 18/10/2025

Yeah Maynard! I grew up next door in slightly bigger Sudbury.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

Upper San Juan SNOTEL is at 9.8" precip in ~100 hours as of 5am 10/14. Highest among the San Juan Mts SNOTELs, but 5 others are at >7" so far.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 13/10/2025

Link: hermes.cde.state.co.us/islandora/ob... - p. 662-671 for the Oct 1911 storm

hermes.cde.state.co.us

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 13/10/2025

And ICMYI, this event is on the CO-NM REPS storm list as a Tropical storm (SPAS-1107; "Wagon Wheel, CO") with a grid max of 7.88" and obs max of 5.08".

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 13/10/2025

This 1986 NWS tech memo on EPac storms that impacted SW US includes the Oct 1911 event, w/ hand-drawn TC track and details on the synoptic setup--see p. 23,25-26. www.weather.gov/media/wrh/on... The TC itself has its own Wikipedia page as the "1911 Sonora hurricane."

weather.gov

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Ack--that should be the NRCS National Water and Climate Center, NWCC

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

And FWIW, it's not even accurate--the Snow and Water Interactive Map is being updated with new obs from the SNOTEL observing networks. So either NRCS National Climate and Water Center staff are "essential" (I hope), or that their systems can run unattended, at least for a while.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

In case you were wondering, this is a completely normal way for a federal department (Agriculture) to communicate the status of its online services during a government shutdown.

Screenshot of a US Department of Agriculture website, the Snow and Water Interactive Map. A large text box at the top of the page reads "Due to the Radical Left Democrat shutdown, this government website will not be updated during the funding lapse. President Trump has made it clear he wants to keep the government open and
support those who feed, fuel, and clothe the American people."

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 07/09/2025

As a reader: "Talent" is well supported by the evidence :)

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

Kathie, congrats on the new role!

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

Shit, this is sad to see. The ABQ bosque is a wonderful oasis for all the local biota, human and non-human.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

Can confirm. Zero mentions of the Fundamental Thing That Can Not Be Named. Also, 'change(s)' is used in the context of weather and climate all of two times.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

Yeah, the deliberate conflation of (a) commercial LLMs with billions of parameters that handle millions of queries daily with (b) far smaller ML models tuned for very specific science and engineering tasks, in order to pose "AI" as a climate necessity--that's pretty egregious.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 02/07/2025

Yikes. It's currently 25.5 C in my upstairs home office, and I'm feeling sluggish enough that I'll kick the A/C on soon. Can't be a good thing to spend entire school days in rooms hotter than this. (To say nothing of the indoor air quality.)

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 02/07/2025

Had no idea Somervell was an accomplished painter! He also took one of the greatest mountaineering photographs of all time, on the 1924 Everest expedition, of teammate Edward Norton near his high point of 28,126'. Still had an amazing eye for composition while oxygen-deprived and exhausted.

Black and white photograph of the rocky and steep upper North Face of Mount Everest showing mountaineer Edward Norton carefully traversing the slope in the middle ground, with the snowy summit in the background. Photo taken on the 1924 Everest expedition by Howard Somervell.

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Reposted by Jeff Lukas

Henri F. Drake @henrifdrake.bsky.social · 30/06/2025

This is fucking insane. Closing these NOAA labs would obliterate our ability to observe, understand, and forecast the Earth System, from weather systems tomorrow to sea levels 50 years from now.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

Cooke wouldn't be the first Commissioner in recent decades to have come from a high-profile Basin-state job (Estevan Lopez), but this feels...different. Is WH/Interior signaling a tilt towards Lower Basin interests here? Beyond that, very relieved it's someone who knows what the hell they're doing.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

We've been in Lafayette since 2021, in Louisville for 5 years before that. Our lived experience matches the data--it's gotten a *lot* noisier. In addition to the increased flight-school traffic, it feels like the private/corporate jet flights have also jumped up.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

Succinct illustration of increasing exposure leading to greater risk and loss. This is in the southeast fringe of the Denver metro area, about 8 mi east of Parker.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Last August we had a family vacay in Truckee, staying in a house in Tahoe Donner built in 2017. I was very surprised that such a recent build appeared to have zero firewise features, and no fuel mitigation, given the high risk of the site.

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Reposted by Jeff Lukas

50501 Colorado @50501colorado.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

DOGE arrived at NOAA this morning. There was no notice. Joe Neguse is on his way, and Attorney General Phil Weisner will be arriving soon. If there is any way you can attend the Peaceful Protest, please turn out ASAP. 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

1PointFive's website: "Mission: Deliver solutions that help curb global temperature rise to 1.5°C" Press release Nov 2023: "Occidental and BlackRock Form Joint Venture [through Oxy subsidiary 1PointFive] to Develop STRATOS, the World's Largest Direct Air Capture Plant" Greenwashing, at scale.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 09/04/2025

The USGCRP was created by Pres. Bush in 1989 and tasked by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to coordinate federal research and produce a quadrennial assessment: the NCA. Crippling the USGCRP is yet another abuse of power that undermines our nation's readiness for the future.

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