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An example: ➡️ A ban on gas cars by 2035? 15% support 🚗💨 ➡️ The same ban with a synthetic fuels exemption? 42% support 🚀⛽ Small tweaks, massive impact. ✨

The interview is based on our new @natclimate.nature.com study (19,000 respondents across 13 EU countries) showing that support for climate policies depends not just on ambition, but on how they’re designed, communicated, and implemented. Costs, tangible benefits, and fairness are decisive.

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Thank you to @alexandradelbot.bsky.social and the @franceculture.fr team for the invitation and this enriching exchange.

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Le destin des politiques climatiques dépend d’électeurs ni pour, ni contre, ni neutre

I had the pleasure to discuss our work on climate policy acceptability @franceculture.fr "Avec Sciences" The big insight? 1/3 of Europeans are “pivot voters”, neither for nor against climate policies, but the ones who decide if a measure succeeds or fails www.radiofrance.fr/francecultur...

radiofrance.fr

C'est le milieu intermédiaire, celles et ceux qui changent d'avis. Selon cette nouvelle étude parue dans Nature Climate Change, ces électeurs représentent 33% des répondants, et peuvent donc faire bas...

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Reposted by Loïc Berger

Keith Smith @ekeithsmith.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Climate politics sounds increasingly polarised. But in Europe, support for climate isn’t driven by die-hard supporters or opponents. It tends to be shaped by a large “conditional middle” (33%).

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Citizens’ expectations align with current projections (43%), but elites are closer to the 55% target, yet even they assign low probability to full success.

Why does this matter? Beliefs shape support for climate action. Closing the perception gap is key to sustaining ambitious policies.

🔹 Uncertainty is high, especially among citizens, pointing to gaps in policy communication and trust.

Our study reveals: 🔹 All groups expect progress, but citizens are more skeptical: they predict a 43% reduction in EU emissions by 2030 (vs. the 55% target). 🔹 Elites underestimate public skepticism, they think citizens are more optimistic than they actually are.