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Reposted by Locked On Orioles

Conor McGovern @conormcgovern.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I tend to see 50 percent ground-ball rates as a red flag when I'm evaluating prospects, but — inspired by difficulty ranking Orioles prospect Aron Estrada — I built some player development models. Surprisingly, they showed GB% doesn't really matter much on its own for predicting a prospect's outcome

comcgovern36.substack.com

Down to Earth

Ground-ball rate tells us much less about a hitting prospect’s future than I thought.

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Reposted by Locked On Orioles

Andy Kostka @afkostka.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Pete Alonso: “I believe in the Baseball Gods, and I honestly believe I’m here for a reason. I was always meant to be a Baltimore Oriole.”

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Reposted by Locked On Orioles

Mikal Lewis @mikal-el.com · 21/09/2026

August 6, 2026 the Orioles manager at the time had a different take for Holliday.

waoco.
If he'd have played it safer, Beavers would have scored after Alonso and Gunnar Henderson walked and Christian Encarnacion-Strand was hit by a pitch. Still, a prime opportunity remained with the bases loaded for Holliday. But after watching the three batters in front of him reach because Angels right-hander Ryan Johnson couldn't find the strike zone, Holliday swung at the first pitch he saw and grounded out to second.
"If he feels like it's a good pitch to hit, you've got to go," Albernaz said.
"You've got to take your shot. You can't be passive up there. If it's a good pitch to hit like that, let it rip."

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

First assignment: look into this new emerging technology called sunglasses

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Someone please wake me up from this nightmare

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Rece Hinds up and starting, carrying an extra hitter, Nunez on the taxi sqaud. Luis Robert Jr is almost certainly hurt.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Narvaez has the lowest batting average in MLB since the trade deadline (min. 50 PA). It is also funny that Taylor Ward has the 2nd lowest.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Only Rich Dauer (.075 AVG from 1976-77) has ever had a lower batting average in his first 22 games (with at least 1 PA) with the Orioles.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Carlos Narvaez is hitting .088 with the Orioles. Orioles PITCHERS hit .135 in the Buck Showalter era.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

When you have a chance to start a corner outfielder who can’t hit, you just have to do it.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Craig after the game: “I never said that”

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Just submitted this idea to BreakingT and credited y’all

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

They have to feel like they just need him as SP depth to finish this year. Then he’s a starter in camp next year, makes the team as the long man, and converts into the next Keegan Akin.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Unfortunately he is now claiming that he never said anything about Christian Franklin and is asking to stop putting words in his mouth.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Craig Albernaz has struggled with the hard parts of the job (in-game decisions), and maybe that's expected from a first-year manager. But he has also completely flubbed the easy parts of the job (speaking to the media, supporting his players). It's rare to see a manager this bad at communication.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Albert is very clearly on board with all of this. When he didn’t make the team out of camp but accepted an assignment to AAA, you knew he was bought in. Just like every other time he has cleared waivers, they will bring him back on a new deal.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Felt like the first time this year he’s really had to think like 4 steps ahead in a huge spot.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

3-way tie for the final AL WC spot. Orioles, Tigers, Rangers all 61-64. But if the season ended today, the Orioles would go to the postseason. All 3 teams are 6-6 against each other, so the next tiebreaker is intra-division record. The Orioles’ 15-18 record vs the AL East is the best of the 3.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

So the Orioles decided to trade Adley Rutschman, turn into full sellers, and punt on 2026 too. Great! Let's chat about it: www.youtube.com/live/dn5q8kt...

youtube.com

Baltimore Orioles Trade Deadline LIVE SHOW: Adley Rutschman sent to Red Sox, Taylor Ward to Mariners

YouTube video by Locked On Orioles

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Anyway, join me live on YouTube at 6:00 pm today. It's going to be an episode for the ages, I can guarantee that. www.youtube.com/live/dn5q8kt...

youtube.com

Baltimore Orioles Trade Deadline LIVE SHOW: Adley Rutschman sent to Red Sox, Taylor Ward to Mariners

YouTube video by Locked On Orioles

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Sorry, gave up on this pretty quickly after a certain trade made it feel pointless.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

If Mike Elias attempts to show his face at Oriole Park it's on site

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

RHP Jose Soriano from the Angels to the Blue Jays for SS Arjun Nimmala, OF Eddie Micheletti, and RHP Angel Rivero. Orioles comp: INF Wehiwa Aloy INF Brandon Butterworth RHP Kiefer Lord C Creed Willems O's don't have a prospect as good as Nimmala, so gotta throw in some extra value.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Brooks Raley from the Mets to the Phillies for 2 prospects: OF John Spikerman and RHP Luke Gabrysh. Orioles comp: UTIL RJ Austin RHP Raimon Gomez

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

This will be thread of deals that don't involve the Orioles, but include players the Orioles may have pursued. And I will give you my take on the comparable trade package the Orioles would have had to give up to get said player.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Chase Utley could still be in there. There aren’t a lot of 2B historically who have surpassed a 116 wRC+ at age 22

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

still rounds 13-20 and the UDFAs to come!

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

you can’t convince me they don’t have a humiliation kink

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Do other teams take more guys in group 3 than the Orioles do? Probably. But they are missing out on ceiling, but I guess improving floor.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

If you’re not picking in the top 10, you have 3 categories of player: Loud offensive tools, defensive questions (Kjerstad, Mayo, Stowers) Great defender, questions about the bat (EBJ, Honeycutt, Joey Ortiz) Average across the board (Maybe O’Ferrall or Butterworth)

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Thinking about doing a deep dive here on the tools of the O’s draft picks. The overarching theme is: it’s hard to draft guys who are really good on offense AND defense. Those are star-level players. That‘s Adley and Gunnar.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Why is Gunnar hitting a bunch of homers again? He has more than doubled his pulled fly ball rate. +16.5% is the 2nd largest gain in MLB this year.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Taylor Ward has the 2nd largest drop in chase rate in MLB this year. He also has the lowest swing rate and lowest chase rate overall. And that’s why he’s 2nd in the league in times on base.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Pete Alonso continues to hit the ball hard, but not elevate like he needs to. His 10.5% drop in barrel rate is the second largest in the league this year.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Shane Baz’s in-zone whiff rate has dropped from 17.1% to 8.8%. That’s the 10th largest drop in the league. If his stuff isn’t working as well in the zone, he’ll have a tendency to go out of the zone more often, and that’s where he’s running into some different issues.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Trevor Rogers has fallen from a 55.4% in-zone rate last year to 44.2% this year. That’s the 8th-largest drop in MLB. He hasn’t had that pinpoint command so far this year.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Gonna thread some significant year-over-year changes we saw from some Orioles in April. Starting with Ryan Helsley, who saw his Pull Air% allowed drop from 20.9% last year to 4.2% this year. 16.7% decrease is largest in MLB. That’s how he’s been able to allow hard contact but get away with it.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Watched a ton of him at Maryland. Very low chance of sticking at SS but I think 3B will be his position long term. The bat … wow. I think the bat was more impressive than Matt Shaw, who of course didn’t take long to get to the bigs.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

All depends on who gets sent to AAA for Holliday‘s spot, but it’s likely Jackson or Mayo. I think the one that stays could be in an early platoon with Holliday while he re-adjusts to MLB pitching. But I think Blaze moves between 3B, 2B, OF and plays most days.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Blaze Alexander has been pretty good in surface stats, but his expected batting average is .397, which leads all qualified MLB hitters. Blaze deserves to play almost every day, even when Holliday comes back.

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Pete Alonso is 8th in MLB in average exit velocity (95.1 mph) and 9th in Hard Hit rate (60.6%). His OPS will not be under .600 (or .700 or .800) for very long.

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Reposted by Locked On Orioles

Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 01/04/2026

As of Gunnar's latest at-bat, pitchers appear to be attacking him with much more off-speed/breaking balls this year. Over 105 pitches: He's seeing only 23.8% FB, down significantly from previous yrs (45.9% to 48.5% range) Low sample size but something to watch

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

I didn't think so, but now I'm wondering if that may be the case

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Locked On Orioles @lockedonorioles.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Not anymore. Suarez replaced Eflin today. It has to be the direct roster move.

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