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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 14h

Even w/ the rate hike, $SPX ended Sept flat—yet the avg large-cap fell 5%, the same as SMIDs (one of the weakest breadth prints in recent memory). Divergence w/in large caps exacerbated an already giant Q3 gap betw EW $SPY (-2%) and the Top 10 (+9%). EW/CW R/S hit a 23-year low. #InterestRates

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Q2 Up/Down EPS robust at 1.93—in the top 5% of our data, despite fading from 43-yr high in Q1. More striking, it aligns w/ prior economic rebounds w/o the “benefit” of a sharp downturn to goose the ratio. #Earnings boom expected to persist but hurdle rates get more difficult. #EPS $SPY

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

While the effect of AI spending has pushed trailing EPS above the trendline, analysts’ forward estimates have blown to unprecedented levels. No one can predict how long this will last. In the meantime, have anti-AI names ready to pivot to on short notice. $ARTY $SPY #Earnings

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Sales growth was upbeat for 89% of $SPY members; operating profit grew for 76% of the universe (both far outpacing the norm). It’s typical for net income growth to lag sales growth in this tally, but a 67% hit rate on the bottom line is well above recent averages

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Q2 $SPX EPS grew 66% YoY (ex-Finl & RE)—almost inconceivable amid an expansion. The impetus: $1-trill/yr in AI spending—a boon for Tech. But AI capex has lifted every equity subset; all 11 sectors saw rising gross & operating margins. Sales growth ~16% is 3x the norm. #EPS $ARTY

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Importantly, this gauge excludes both the IT sector and Communication Services; therefore, the gargantuan size and return distortions of those stocks are not influencing the picture.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Cyclicals are rarely the last to stand as leadership narrows before a bull market top. In fact, prior to $SPY peaks, a rotation OUT of cyclicals is usual. Now, despite depressed sentiment, the C/D ratio is near '99 highs, so investors aren’t positioning for a bear or recession. #Cyclicals #Defensive

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Sentiment is at a GFC-era low, yet the Cyclical/Defensive Ratio is near pre‑Y2K highs. Given such dismal sentiment, the strong tilt toward cyclical stocks is surprising; since 1990, only the late‑1990s showed a similarly sharp but opposite divergence.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Number of S&P 500 Shares Needed to Buy a Home: 1968 to-date median (thru Q2-26): 189 shares 1978-1982: ~ 500+ shares 1999-2000: 80-120 shares Q1-24 to date: fewer than 80 shares August 31, 2026: 57 shares $SPY #Housing #SP500

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Reposted by The Leuthold Group

Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

How sharp were the five drawdowns? Here’s a look at all seven cases during the major bull market since 2009. 2/2

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Reposted by The Leuthold Group

Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Great study from @leutholdgroup.bsky.social. Worth noting that 5 out of 7 recent cases featured sharp drawdowns from July signal date. Upshot? Breadth is constructive but don’t be surprised by choppy sailing ahead. 1/2

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Historically, a 3.8% year-over-year CPI print (like August) has preceded robust 12-month gains (~+15.5%). However, returns fall sharply when inflation exceeds 4% and drop off a cliff once the rate breaks through 5%. #CPI #Inflation $SPY #FederalReserve

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Cost for 1 share of the S&P 500 1947 to-date median: 33.3 work hours 1947 to-date average: 55.2 work hours Q1-1999 thru Q4-2000: > 90 hours < 102 hours Q1-2009 thru Q4-2012 : >42 hours < 78 hours Avg since Q4-2019: >138 work hours (97th-100th %ile) Q2-2026 avg: 246.1 work hours (100th %ile)

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The "easy" growth will soon be out of the picture.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Leuthold’s Up/Down Earnings Ratio for Q2’s first two months slipped from Q1’s 40+ yr peak. Only 4 quarters were higher in the past 15 years. YoY EPS growth is pervasive, but a headwind looms: Q3 will see above average look-back ratios for the 1st time since the COVID bounce. #earnings

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

After several years of short-term shifts in preference between aggressive and defensive, the pendulum has veered strongly toward the former. Our Courage/Fear Investor Ratio has not jumped this sharply since the March 2020 bottom. $RUT #EmergingMarkets #Commodities #Cyclicals

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Historically, small cap valuations have little relationship with potential downside: They have dropped 30-40% from valuations no higher than today’s—and from even cheaper levels still: Following one of the least expensive peaks on record (March Y2K), small caps plunged more than 40%.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

With $SPY EPS est. spiking 19% w/ 1st mo. of Q2 reports, does the market have a grasp on ST and LT forecasts? Debate intensifies @ durability of EPS growth tied to AI-capex spending and one-off gains. “Earnings bubble” is being thrown around. Yet, the numbers are what they are—and they are dazzling.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Defense led in Jun–Jul, then cyclicals reclaimed the lead in Aug. That swing is typical of V-shaped pullbacks and recoveries—first a tilt to defense, then a rotation to cyclicals. With $SPY trading flat lately, there’s a lot activity under the surface. #markets

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

“Up” Earnings vs. “Down” for 1st mo. of Q1 reports fell from Q4's 1-mo. figure. The level is still robust relative to LT avg, but today’s expansion is maturing. Given history, it seems greedy to think the string of advances can extend much further. Lookbacks will get tougher in coming quarters.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

While the emotional thunderbolt of an oil price surge is felt early on, the average duration of a decisive oil price spike averages nearly 11 months.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

Starting on the first day of a major oil spike, S&P 500 forward returns at 3-, 6-, and 12-months were surprisingly strong. 3- and 6-month stretches averaged ~1%/month; the 12-month return was a striking +17.6%. #Oil $XLE $XOM $CVX $CL_F $SPY

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Nvidia’s weight in $SPY has slimmed down from a mind-boggling 8.5% to a still incredible 7.32%. Its streak of nine consecutive months with a heft greater than 7% is matched only by $AAPL 's run-up in 2023. $NVDA #Mag7

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

It has been rough sledding for our “4% Club” contingent over the last 4 months. Microsoft lost 24%—a $930 billion plunge in mkt cap (roughly one Berkshire Hathaway or three Coca-Colas). $MSFT ended Feb. w/ an $SPY weight of < 5% for the first time since Jan-2020. $BRK $KO

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Is the current iteration of handwringing over profligate AI spending (and its capabilities) just another head-fake -- or the beginning of a return to the index’s more conventional concentration scheme?

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

$SPY ended Feb w/ its 4th sharp decline in concentration since the mega-cap Tech run began, but the largest 5 names still comprise 28% of the index vs. the 13% combined weight of the bottom 300. Historically, pre-2020, the smallest 60% typically dwarfed the sway of the top 1%. #Mag7

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

As far as railroads and trucking firms, Swenson says they suffer from the fact that “their fundamentals are more impaired and valuations look less attractive.” Our quantitatively-driven work indicates "deteriorating profitability and negative earnings revisions” make truckers especially unappealing.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Leuthold's Greg Swenson cited by @lamonicabuzz.bsky.social @barronsonline “While Transports are often discussed as a single industry, dispersion beneath the surface is elevated.” Dow Transport Index Is Sizzling. Stick With Planes, Not Trucks and Trains. shorturl.at/AnUKF #paywall (may apply) #DJT

shorturl.at

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Based on figures from both the 1926-to-date and 1957-to-date periods, S&P 500 Normalized Earnings sit in the 10th decile (most expensive) of historical valuations. Is this a "new Era" or unsustainable? #StockTrends $SPY #Valuations

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

Poor results in January from MSFT (-11%), AAPL (-5%), and Broadcom (-4%) dragged down the once bulletproof Top 10.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

Equal-Wgt $SPY had best month vs S&P 500 Top-10 Index since March 2025. The avg $SPY stock has outdone the Top 10 for 3 mos running (by 8.5%). If this is the start of a fortune reversal for smalls, there is ample runway. Since 12/21/22: S&P 500 Top 10 +186%; EW SPY +48%

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

In recent history, only the Russell 2000’s +6% lead in Jan. 2021 has been better than Jan. 2026. Perhaps more notably, this is only the tenth January win for small caps in the last 25 years.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

A January small-cap bounce is a well-known market anomaly, but in the last decade, it’s mostly flopped. This year, it was in full force—until late January, when smalls gave back some gains. Still, $RUT +4% advantage over $SPY was its best January since 2023. #SmallCaps

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

After collapsing since 2023, the DJ Transports is suddenly on a tear, breaking to new highs and well-off R/S lows. This newfound vigor could signal broadening of stock leadership and more upside for equities overall. $DJT #StockTrends

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

Of the S&P 500 Growth Index’s Top 10 stocks, only two deviate from the obvious theme: Berkshire Hathaway and Lilly. An allocation to this index is an explicit bet that mega-cap Tech, AI/cloud-computing will continue to dominate in 2026. #Mag7 #GrowthStocks

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Complicating performance comparisons, a mere 13% of actively-managed large growth funds have Tech + Comm weights greater than the index; only 31% of passively-managed large growth funds are overweight these two sectors. #LargeCaps

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

S&P 500 Growth Index: Annual style-index rebalancing has further exacerbated its top-heavy concentration. Tech and Communications Services account for 65% of the total weight. If one counts "Mag 7" from Discretionary, Tech Titans account for 71% of the index. #GrowthStocks

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

But playing the bookends of the year, November through February, has worked well during this rough stretch for the little guy.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

January’s small-cap bounce is a well-known market anomaly. But it ain't what it used to be. In recent decades, small caps have tended to post the best relative returns in Nov. and Dec. as managers perhaps front-run the "January Effect." $RUT $SPY

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

After missing a Santa Claus Rally (by a whisker) a few weeks ago, another calendar anomaly is firing on all cylinders. Through last Friday, the $RUT had outperformed the S&P 500 in every trading session of 2026, leading to the largest “January Effect” (+6.5%) in recent history. $SPY #SmallCap

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

2024 and 2025 had pretty darn good returns without the aid of a preceding year’s Santa Claus rally. Only time will tell if 2026 can keep that momentum. #Stocks $SPX

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

No "Santa Claus Rally”: The last 5 trading days of 2025 plus first 2 of ‘26 were a lump of coal. Since ‘72, $SPY returned +1.15% in this period vs. a 7-day avg of +0.19%. The results are spotty, but historically, if Santa doesn’t show up, the next year has been underwhelming. #Stocks

2025.it

2025.IT

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

Relative to a barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude, $SPX has ranked among the most expensive for nearly 75% of quarters since 2020. The last time the index was this costly versus oil prices was over 25 years ago (1998 and 1999). #WTI #Oil $SPY

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 29/12/2025

An anemic fundamental outlook seems to attract traders who envision the potential to manufacture a sharp rebound for a beaten-down name.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 29/12/2025

GS High Retail Sentiment (meme stocks) is another "exuberance group," like Unprofitable Tech and Highly Shorted indexes (but a much shorter history). It peaked sharply in 2021, quickly gave up all the gain, then drifted until this year, when it again melted up to a fresh high. #Meme #Sentiment

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 26/12/2025

Most shorted R3K names plunged during pandemic, surged 219% in ‘21 euphoria, then fully retreated, ceding all gains, moving sideways for yrs. In 2025, they again joined the melt-up (+126%) into the Nov. peak, just like Unprofitable Tech index. Overall, buying speculative stocks is a losing tactic.

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Based on the Manufacturing Sector's average hourly wage, one would need to work 204.4 hours to purchase a single S&P 500 unit (data through Q3-25). This lands in the 10th decile of the distribution (stocks most expensive), 1947 to date. $SPX #Wages

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The Leuthold Group @leutholdgroup.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

Over the last 11 years, the unprofitable Tech basket returned just 1/2 as much as the #SP500.

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