iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

New Article: Reintroductions letters2aj.substack.com/p/reintroduc... -Familiar Foe, Different Matchup -Gamesmanship -Pulling the Inside Straight #Padres #ForTheFaithful

letters2aj.substack.com

Reintroductions

Familiar Foes

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

New Article: Taking Shape -Pivetta’s form and importance -Multiple clubs in the bag -Hunt for the Brown and Gold October #Padres Link: letters2aj.substack.com/p/taking-shape

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

New Article: The Pivetta Problem: Coda letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-pivett... -Full analysis of Nick Pivetta's return outing -Same pitches, different shapes -The rate-limiting step #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

The Pivetta Problem; Coda

A Bar So Low

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

New Article: Chaos letters2aj.substack.com/p/chaos -A Microcosm In A Single Game -Trade Deadline Strategy -Making sense of the pitching chaos -Tatis, Merrill, Machado swing analysis -Ty France's generational hidden skill #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

Chaos

The Theory Of A Team Emerges

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

New Article: 50/50 letters2aj.substack.com/p/5050 -Rounding Up The First Half -Second Half Prospectus -Jackson Merrill and Randy Vasquez deep dives -Trade deadline strategy #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

50/50

Rounding Up The First Half

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Will Harris @sandwichpick.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

Great article and this puts into words what I think what a lot of us felt about ABS

The New ABS Skill Trees
When we wrote about ABS before the season started we noted that new skill trees were entering the game:
There are two skill trees teams must consider:
• Strike-zone acuity: The skill of the batter catcher pitcher in estimating if a pitch caught the strike zone. and
• Situational leverage awareness:
Understanding when the expected value of a challenge justifies the attempt
Those are related skills, but they are not the same
skill.
A player can be good at reading the zone but poor at identifving when a low-confidence challenge is still correct. A player can also be mediocre at reading the zone but still make good challenge decisions if he understands which game states demand aggression.

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

New article: All The Small Things -ABS Challenge Strategy -A new Padres (and MLB) record -A new Metric: CRY letters2aj.substack.com/p/all-the-sm...

letters2aj.substack.com

All The Small Things

The ABS Challenge

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

letters2aj.substack.com/p/timing-is-... New article: Timing Is Everything -On Manny Machado, Swing Timing, and Understanding vs Absolution #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

Timing Is Everything

On Manny Machado, swing timing, and the difference between absolution and understanding.

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 24/05/2026

New Article: Where Has All The Power Gone? -Fernando Tatis Jr.'s bewildering power outage -Fragile swing geometry -Deciphering a Statcast puzzle #Padres letters2aj.substack.com/p/where-has-...

letters2aj.substack.com

Where Has All The Power Gone?

Long Swings? Pressing?

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

New Article: Reinforcements -Griffin Canning raises the floor -Niebla pitching lab fingerprints -Chipping away at the Pivetta problem letters2aj.substack.com/p/reinforcem...

letters2aj.substack.com

Reinforcements

Not A Minute Too Soon

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

New Article: Probably Still Nothing -Baseball Semaphore and a Fixable Problem letters2aj.substack.com/p/probably-s...

letters2aj.substack.com

Probably Still Nothing

The Semaphore Strikes Back

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

New Article: Hired Gun letters2aj.substack.com/p/hired-gun -Quantifying the Pivetta problem -Lucas Giolito's intriguing addition -The Floor is raised #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

Hired Gun

Lucas Giolito's Intriguing Addition To The 2026 Padres

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

New Article: Trust letters2aj.substack.com/p/trust -A prerequisite for player development #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

Trust

Redemption Arc

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

New Article: The Innovator’s Dilemma -Where is the Padres offense? -Craig Stammen: experimenter -Baseball’s Innovator’s dilemma letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-innova...

letters2aj.substack.com

The Innovator's Dilemma

A New Skipper Charting A New Path

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Rain delay reading: letters2aj.substack.com/p/first-look... #Padres

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

New Article: First Looks Part 1 -Examining the top of the rotation and lineup vs lefties -Bullpen game theory -The chronicles of McGonigle letters2aj.substack.com/p/first-look...

letters2aj.substack.com

First Looks Part 1

Top Of The Rotation and the Lefty Lineup

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

First article of the season: Skill Trees -Case studies from 2025 postseason and 2026 spring training -Game theory optimal use of new strategic asset letters2aj.substack.com/p/skill-trees

letters2aj.substack.com

Skill Trees

A New Branch

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Reposted by Letters2AJ

Darnay Tripp @darnay.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Here’s to a lot less bunting in 2026. 🍾

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

New article: Expected Value -Baseball’s new win conditions -IKF and baseball orthodoxy -The Default State letters2aj.substack.com/p/expected-v...

letters2aj.substack.com

Expected Value

And Risk Aversion

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

New Article: The Upper Bound letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-upper-... -The Padres have not fielded the best version of themselves. Until now.

letters2aj.substack.com

The Upper Bound

How Good Is the Best Version of the Padres?

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

New Article: Margin Call Part 3 - Playing To The Park letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal... -Signs the Padres are emphasizing a more sophisticated pitch mix strategy -What they can control in a worst case scenario

letters2aj.substack.com

Margin Call Part 3

Pitching to the Park

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

New Article: Margin Call Part 2 - Lineup Optimization -A shift in the win formula -How impactful is lineup optimization? -Making the pieces fit letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...

letters2aj.substack.com

Margin Call Part 2

Lineup Optimization

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Reposted by Letters2AJ

Chris Reed @chrisreed619.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

This is great work - as always - but i humbly propose my guy Archie could've saved some math time by looking at this scientific chart i posted in our Padres Hot Tub discord a few months ago.

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Darren Smith @dsmithshow.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Tuesday Pod! -Padres are going through some things. Hit the gas or throttle back? -SDFC steals the show from Son / LAFC; Can Dreyer win MVP? Weekend Recaps are always 🔓. Today’s @section1904.com:

section1904.com

Weekend Recap: SDFC shows up, Padres don't

It was a good weekend for one of San Diego's teams, but another one faces an existential crisis.

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

New Article: Margin Call Part 1 - Small Ball letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal... -The best time to purge a small win-probability drag is the start of a long season. The next best time is now.

letters2aj.substack.com

Margin Call Part 1

Small Ball

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

New Article: Home Field Advantage letters2aj.substack.com/p/home-field... -Luis Arraez and lineup optimization -Now it's a sprint -What home field advantage means #ForTheFaithful #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

Home Field Advantage

Strategic Decision Making

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

New Article: Pressing Questions letters2aj.substack.com/p/pressing-q... -Is the lineup optimized? -Is the use of an opener a one-off? -How close was the Dodgers series? #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

Pressing Questions

And Pressing Concerns

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 11/08/2025

New Article: The Formula letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-formula -How the pieces fit -New strategies, and old -Close-quarters combat #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

The Formula

Watching The Pieces Fit

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

New Article: First Impressions letters2aj.substack.com/p/first-impr... -New arms, new lineup, new strategies -Cease, fire -Farewell Strandy, gone but not forgotten #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

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John Gennaro @johngennaro.com · 01/08/2025

Always love when I get to spend an hour-plus talking #Padres with @letters2aj.bsky.social

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

New Article: All In -The reinforcements that arrived after the trade deadline finally detonated -The Trade That Didn't Happen -The Way Home #ForTheFaithful #Padres letters2aj.substack.com/p/all-in

letters2aj.substack.com

All In

Now It's A Dogfight

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

New Article: The Other TTO letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-other-tto -What to make of Dylan Cease's dreadful ERA? -Compounding effects of an extreme pitching style -Simplifying the guessing game

letters2aj.substack.com

The Other TTO

Failure Modes Of The One-Two Punch

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

New Article: Adjustments letters2aj.substack.com/p/adjustment... -An interesting trend in opposing starting pitcher stuff+ -An approach change from Luis Arraez? #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

Adjustments

Full Tilt

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 07/07/2025

New Article: Degree Of Difficulty letters2aj.substack.com/p/degree-of-... -Analyzing the Padres record against over-and-under .500 teams -Roster analysis as the trade deadline looms -Chipping away at understanding the unprecedented slumps from the team's top hitters #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

Degree Of Difficulty

Teams Are Not Monolithic

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

New Article: Market Analysis Part 1 letters2aj.substack.com/p/market-ana... -A look at the trade market dynamics surrounding the Padres top need -A surprisingly optimistic forecast of a popular acquisition target -AJ Preller and the high-ceiling siren song #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

Market Analysis

Part 1

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

New Article: Halfway Home letters2aj.substack.com/p/halfway-home -Forecasting the most efficient path to improvement -A look at Petco Park hitting, and the strategy it implies

letters2aj.substack.com

Halfway Home

Beyond Surviving

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Eno Sarris @enosarris.bsky.social · 19/06/2025

I think Niebla is the best pitching coach in game, or second to Caleb Cotham, definitely on Rushmore of the moment

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Corey Stewart @coreyastewart.bsky.social · 15/06/2025

Luis slowly closes the door behind him and goes to sit down. Mike looks nauseous. Boyz II Men sing End of the Road softly from a Bluetooth speaker that looks like a baseball. “Cuz…”

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 09/06/2025

New Article: Anatomy Of A Slump 3.0, Unicorn Edition letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of... -A deep look beyond the box score into what has been Luis Arraez' worst stretch as a hitter -The downstream costs of poor offense

letters2aj.substack.com

Anatomy Of A Slump 3.0

Unicorn Edition

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

New Article: Anatomy Of A Slump 2.0 letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of... -Examining the worst month of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s career -Staring into the void in left field -Future value vs present value #Padres

letters2aj.substack.com

Anatomy Of A Slump

2.0

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Letters2AJ @letters2aj.bsky.social · 27/05/2025

New Article: Representative Sample letters2aj.substack.com/p/representa... -Further exploration of the Padres power outage -A thought experiment involving Victor Rodriguez -Why we actually need an injury translator

letters2aj.substack.com

Representative Sample

Signal In The Noise

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Reposted by Letters2AJ

HJ Preller @hjpreller.bsky.social · 25/05/2025

Hearing through my sources that Michael King might be sent down to Molokai

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