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Leo Bastos

@leosbastos.bsky.social
3.3K followers 344 following 353 posts

Public health researcher at Fiocruz 🇧🇷 Associate professor at IMPA Tech 🇧🇷 Bayesian statistician 📈 Infectious diseases modeller 🦠🦟 Father of 3 boys (be nice).

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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Anyway, I am enjoying doing the maths/stats of the simple models exploring the uncertainty. But at the same time I am not convinced that it is productive...
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I still not sure if I should stick on the mathematical approach in a AI era where students can do the maths for a small set of models (LM, GLM, and not so many more) whereas for most of the ML models/algorithms they just (vibe) code them and get better predictions (if prediction is the aim).
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I am enjoying doing some maths. I mention today that the maths I did today, I did for the last time in 2002 during my MSc (The maths behind the IWLS algorith for a GLM), and one student told me she wasn't born yet... (probably all students there weren't born in 2002 hahaha)
static.klipy.com
Pedro Pascal Laughing and Crying Meme
ALT: Pedro Pascal Laughing and Crying Meme
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I am teaching a statistical modelling course for Data Science undergrads at IMPA Tech, and I decided to go for the old school approach doing most of the demonstrations on the white board. I have mixing feelings though.
static.klipy.com
Maths Explanation on Blackboard
ALT: Maths Explanation on Blackboard
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
@rafalpx.bsky.social @portellatp.bsky.social
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The models are now implemented in {R-INLA} and {mgcv}! Package website: covid19br.github.io/nowcaster CRAN mirror: cran.r-project.org/web/packages... GitHub: github.com/covid19br/no...
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The nowcaster package was built for and during the epidemiological emergency; it was constructed for the Brazilian Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) surveillance system, at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. The method was previously adapted/developed for dengue surveillance in Brazil.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I am pleased to share that our nowcasting R package {nowcaster} is finally on CRAN! The package wraps statistical models to estimate not yet reported data using an empirical delay distribution, either from individual-level data or from the differences of aggregated time series of cases.
Nowcaster package logos in blue and white. They display a time series of Covid-19 cases during the pandemic in a city in Brazil.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Pois é, eu tenho sentimentos mistos. Só sei que se fosse pra sair que tivesse o neymar em campo. Ja q na nosso maior vexame (a.k.a. 7x1) ele estava lesionado no banco. É importante a gente ter um vexame com ele em campo... Nem sei se realmente foi um vexame, pq o haaland é sinistro ne?
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Faz parte do jogo, e vão ter semanas que vc vai trabalhar pouco e vai render tanto que vai compensar tudo... É assim que eu vejo o trabalho na academia. Ou seja, nao se torture com isso. (Por outro lado entendo a frustração de nao ter progredido)
parte.do
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Reposted by Leo Bastos
Mariana M. @marianaccmm.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Lembrando que 2027 é ano de Copa do Mundo de novo. E aqui no Brasil. Bora torcer pra mulheres incríveis - mulheres estas que não ganham milhões pra perder pênalti decisivo e que não são ex-jogadoras em atividade.
Tainá Maranhão com camisa da seleção brasileira, de braços abertos no campo
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
O projeto para a copa 2030 começa bem com o anúncio da aposentadoria de Neymar na seleção. O lado positivo de ter saído ontem é que fomos poupados de um vexame maior, uma vez que os próximos serão com seleções mais fortes (duvido de Noruega passe da Inglaterra por exemplo). Enfim, é a vida...
static.klipy.com
C'est La Vie Cursive Writing
ALT: C'est La Vie Cursive Writing
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
He was announced yesterday (just after the class) to be in Brazil's squad. I dislike him as a footballer and I wish he wasn't in the team. But what I wish is completly different of what I believe regarding that probability I have elicited a prior distribution. Anyway, an interesting example. :-)
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
It was interesting to see the engagement, it seems to be better than my boring traditional examples. Anyway, my expected prior for that probability was 0.7, even knowing that he wasn't in the national team in the last 10 games.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
I am teaching an introduction to mathematical statistics and yesterday I introduced Bayesian inference. In one of the examples I elicited a prior distribution to the probability of Neymar be announced as a member of the Brazilian squad for the 2026 FIFA World cup.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Even for a Bayesian in an ML/AI new data science world, I find quite pleasure to prove in classroom that an MLE, under smooth conditions, is consistent and asymptotically Gaussian.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
I am complaining about this because I have just bought two books and spent more than one thousand reais (which is more than half of a minimum wage here in Brazil).
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
I know there are "alternative" ways to get a book (or a non open acess paper), but I wish we could legally access them. (More science/educstuon investiments and/or expressive cost reductions).
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
I still prefer studying a subjective, specially new subjects, using printed version books. Unfortunatelly it is quite expensive buying them from Brazil. And the most cutting edge is a subject the harder it is to find a book on that subjective in a library here. This is science inequality.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
I remember last year results, some news were making fun of the android performance (the fasted one was 2h 40'). I was impressed since my aim in a half-marathon is 2hs and some androids did finish a half-marathon. Then just one year later, an android beat the human record (56') by 6 minutes! Wow!
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
The research Joint Bayesian Nowcasting of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness and COVID‐19 Positives in Brazil is published in Statistics in Medicine. doi.org/10.1002/sim....
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
My research, "Mortality trends for diabetes mellitus, hypertension and cardiovascular disease among people living with and without HIV in Brazil during the COVID‐19 pandemic, 2020–2022", has been published! Read it here: doi.org/10.1111/hiv.... #publishedarticle @wileyinresearch
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Very intense day: - Paper accepted in the morning (and one rejected) - Student defending her PhD (she did a wonderful job) - Final report of a project submitted - Scientific initiation grant (PIBIC) submitted - Paper awarded in a event in Brasilia
media.tenor.com
a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a world map
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a world map
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Reposted by Leo Bastos
Simon Cauchemez @scauchemez.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Two postdoc positions for a number of exciting epidemic modelling projects opening in my Unit at @pasteur.fr in beautiful Paris. Deadline for applications: 13th April. More details at the following link: research.pasteur.fr/job/two-post...
research.pasteur.fr
Two postdoctoral positions in epidemic modelling - Research
Job description We are recruiting 2 postdocs to contribute to research projects in the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, at Institut Pasteur in Paris. The postdocs will develop state...
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
It is unsafe for other Scientific meetings too. My favorite meeting is the @isba-bayesian.bsky.social, this year will be in Japan (unfortunately I won't go for personal reasons) and the next one in 28 will be in the US which I won't go either because I am not keen to pass through the visa process.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Socó-dorminhoco (Nycticorax nycticorax)
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Our paper on the Infodengue-Mosqlimate challenge to predict the next dengue season in Brazil is out in @pnas.org www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Leveraging probabilistic forecasts for dengue preparedness and control: The 2024 Dengue Forecasting Sprint in Brazil | PNAS
Forecast models are a key decision-support tool for public health authorities in managing epidemics, feeding into early warning systems, scenario e...
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
I thought that during the course of these 15+ years after the PhD I would be less annoyed by a manuscript rejection...
media.tenor.com
a close up of a cartoon character 's fist with a pink building in the background
ALT: a close up of a cartoon character 's fist with a pink building in the background
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
I saw several caricatures of this kind today on Instagram. All of them are very accurate. This is super scary, they (well, they = all AI platforms ChatGPT-like) not only have a lot of information about us but also they can make a cartoon out of it.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
It is fake news, sorry about that. It is so surreal as anything related to this person that I believed it was legit... www.boatos.org/english/did-...
boatos.org
Did Trump soil his pants and cause a White House evacuation?
We checked messages claiming that Donald Trump allegedly defecated in his pants, leading to a White House evacuation and the removal of journalists from the Oval Office.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
The orange man always surprises me. I do expect the worst from him, but somehow he exceeds himself. I have no words for this 💩
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
I am also a manga reader, In December and January I keep up with these: - Frieren - Kugarabachi - Hima-ten - Monochrome days - Dandandan
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
End of holidays and after the kids sleep usually while cooking or doing the dishes I watch animes (Japanese cartoons). An old habit that I have kept doing since a teenager. Recently I have been following these: - Frieren - Sentenced to be a hero - Camping solo for two - Touring after the apocalypse
media.tenor.com
a girl sitting on a couch reading a book
ALT: a girl sitting on a couch reading a book
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
If you fancy playing around with maps, this site is quite cool to play with: thetruesize.com
thetruesize.com
Compare Countries, States, Provinces, and Regions with This Simple Tool
Drag, drop and rotate countries, states, provinces, and regions around the map to compare their relative size. Is Greenland really as big as all of Africa? You may be surprised...
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
The other way round, try to fit Brazil over Greenland. You can see a very odd shape of Brazil, and luckily we are not too much in the south, otherwise the orange man would say when the Portuguese arrived there were some Americans here (To be honest, the Americans were already here)
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
If you put Greenland over Brazil. It is a massive piece of land, but not as massive as one would believe by looking at a Mercator projection.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
A very short guide to Bayesian reasoning www.bbc.com/videos/c78ee...
bbc.com
What is Bayesian reasoning?
Once you understand what is, you'll spot Bayesian reasoning in science, medicine - and many aspects of daily life.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
Lula should decline the invitation to join Trump's board of peace. Brazil always wanted to be a permanent member of the UN's Security Council. But this Trump's private version is surreal as most of the things the orange man does and says...
media.tenor.com
a man is sitting in a chair with the words i am the council on the screen behind him .
ALT: a man is sitting in a chair with the words i am the council on the screen behind him .
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Ps: The acclaimed City of God wasn't shortlisted.
media.tenor.com
a man with a beard says quem falou que a boca e tua rapá
ALT: a man with a beard says quem falou que a boca e tua rapá
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
The Brazilian nominations were: 1962 O pagador de promessas (Keppe rof promisses) 1995 O quatrilho 1997 O que é isso companheiro? (Four days in September) 1998 Central do Brasil (Central Station) 2024 Eu ainda estou aqui (I'm still here) [awarded] 2025 O agente secreto (The secret agent)
media.tenor.com
a woman wearing a necklace smiles while standing on a beach
ALT: a woman wearing a necklace smiles while standing on a beach
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
"If Brazilians submitted a shoe to the Oscar, everyone would vote for it, says the Sirât's director" Really? How many awards for best international feature film has Brazil won? Well, just one in six nominations... I hope we get a second one.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Nossa Gabi, ate no doutorado tenho visto muitos alunos entrarem na vibe "pq sim". Tbm fico bem triste, pois como vc percebeu, e eu reforco aqui, a frustacao nesses casos é muito provável. E essa frustração rebate no orientador (em mim pelo menos) gerando um desânimo enorme com a pos graduação...
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
This is indeed the best meme song of 2025. I love it m.youtube.com/shorts/fa3U-...
m.youtube.com
The Best meme song of 2025
YouTube video by Iliya Shojaei
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Great news to start 2026!
media.tenor.com
a man in a tuxedo and bow tie is sitting in a crowd of people .
ALT: a man in a tuxedo and bow tie is sitting in a crowd of people .
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
I also saw that the statistics graduate program from UFMG (my alma mater) also upgraded from 5 to 6.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Today the coordinators of every graduate program were informed of their respective grades. I am a member of two graduate programs: Epidemiology in Public Health at ENSP/Fiocruz and Computational and Systems Biology at IOC/Fiocruz. And both upgraded from 6 to 7 and from 5 to 6 respectively.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Here in Brazil all graduate programs are evaluated by a government agency called CAPES, and the programs get grades up to 7 every 4 years. For reference, PhD programs usually start with 4 points. Programs with a 7 are usually internationally recognized by peers.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
Professionally: Papers: Work more on slow stats/maths papers, not keen on papers on hot health topics to yesterday, important for public health but too stressful. International conferences: I wish I could go to the ISBA conference in Japan, but I cannot make it. So I might consider another one.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
2026 resolutions: - starting running again (I had a knee injury just before the pandemic, then I stopped doing sports running and taekwondo) - camping / hiking (alone and/or with family). There are some great places near Rio, like the Parnaso - work less (I was this close to a burnout this year)
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 26/12/2025
So I may try to change this a little bit not only for myself but for my kids too. It is not a simple change, and I hope recognising this is at least a small step towards this change. If you somehow managed to get here, thanks (and sorry) for reading these posts. Happy new year!
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