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Leo Bastos

@leosbastos.bsky.social
3.3K followers 344 following 349 posts

Public health researcher at Fiocruz 🇧🇷 Associate professor at IMPA Tech 🇧🇷 Bayesian statistician 📈 Infectious diseases modeller 🦠🦟 Father of 3 boys (be nice).

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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I am pleased to share that our nowcasting R package {nowcaster} is finally on CRAN! The package wraps statistical models to estimate not yet reported data using an empirical delay distribution, either from individual-level data or from the differences of aggregated time series of cases.
Nowcaster package logos in blue and white. They display a time series of Covid-19 cases during the pandemic in a city in Brazil.
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Reposted by Leo Bastos
Mariana M. @marianaccmm.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Lembrando que 2027 é ano de Copa do Mundo de novo. E aqui no Brasil. Bora torcer pra mulheres incríveis - mulheres estas que não ganham milhões pra perder pênalti decisivo e que não são ex-jogadoras em atividade.
Tainá Maranhão com camisa da seleção brasileira, de braços abertos no campo
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
O projeto para a copa 2030 começa bem com o anúncio da aposentadoria de Neymar na seleção. O lado positivo de ter saído ontem é que fomos poupados de um vexame maior, uma vez que os próximos serão com seleções mais fortes (duvido de Noruega passe da Inglaterra por exemplo). Enfim, é a vida...
static.klipy.com
C'est La Vie Cursive Writing
ALT: C'est La Vie Cursive Writing
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
I am teaching an introduction to mathematical statistics and yesterday I introduced Bayesian inference. In one of the examples I elicited a prior distribution to the probability of Neymar be announced as a member of the Brazilian squad for the 2026 FIFA World cup.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Even for a Bayesian in an ML/AI new data science world, I find quite pleasure to prove in classroom that an MLE, under smooth conditions, is consistent and asymptotically Gaussian.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
I still prefer studying a subjective, specially new subjects, using printed version books. Unfortunatelly it is quite expensive buying them from Brazil. And the most cutting edge is a subject the harder it is to find a book on that subjective in a library here. This is science inequality.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
I remember last year results, some news were making fun of the android performance (the fasted one was 2h 40'). I was impressed since my aim in a half-marathon is 2hs and some androids did finish a half-marathon. Then just one year later, an android beat the human record (56') by 6 minutes! Wow!
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
The research Joint Bayesian Nowcasting of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness and COVID‐19 Positives in Brazil is published in Statistics in Medicine. doi.org/10.1002/sim....
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
My research, "Mortality trends for diabetes mellitus, hypertension and cardiovascular disease among people living with and without HIV in Brazil during the COVID‐19 pandemic, 2020–2022", has been published! Read it here: doi.org/10.1111/hiv.... #publishedarticle @wileyinresearch
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Very intense day: - Paper accepted in the morning (and one rejected) - Student defending her PhD (she did a wonderful job) - Final report of a project submitted - Scientific initiation grant (PIBIC) submitted - Paper awarded in a event in Brasilia
media.tenor.com
a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a world map
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a world map
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Simon Cauchemez @scauchemez.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Two postdoc positions for a number of exciting epidemic modelling projects opening in my Unit at @pasteur.fr in beautiful Paris. Deadline for applications: 13th April. More details at the following link: research.pasteur.fr/job/two-post...
research.pasteur.fr
Two postdoctoral positions in epidemic modelling - Research
Job description We are recruiting 2 postdocs to contribute to research projects in the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, at Institut Pasteur in Paris. The postdocs will develop state...
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
It is unsafe for other Scientific meetings too. My favorite meeting is the @isba-bayesian.bsky.social, this year will be in Japan (unfortunately I won't go for personal reasons) and the next one in 28 will be in the US which I won't go either because I am not keen to pass through the visa process.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Socó-dorminhoco (Nycticorax nycticorax)
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Our paper on the Infodengue-Mosqlimate challenge to predict the next dengue season in Brazil is out in @pnas.org www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Leveraging probabilistic forecasts for dengue preparedness and control: The 2024 Dengue Forecasting Sprint in Brazil | PNAS
Forecast models are a key decision-support tool for public health authorities in managing epidemics, feeding into early warning systems, scenario e...
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
I thought that during the course of these 15+ years after the PhD I would be less annoyed by a manuscript rejection...
media.tenor.com
a close up of a cartoon character 's fist with a pink building in the background
ALT: a close up of a cartoon character 's fist with a pink building in the background
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
The orange man always surprises me. I do expect the worst from him, but somehow he exceeds himself. I have no words for this 💩
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
End of holidays and after the kids sleep usually while cooking or doing the dishes I watch animes (Japanese cartoons). An old habit that I have kept doing since a teenager. Recently I have been following these: - Frieren - Sentenced to be a hero - Camping solo for two - Touring after the apocalypse
media.tenor.com
a girl sitting on a couch reading a book
ALT: a girl sitting on a couch reading a book
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
If you put Greenland over Brazil. It is a massive piece of land, but not as massive as one would believe by looking at a Mercator projection.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
A very short guide to Bayesian reasoning www.bbc.com/videos/c78ee...
bbc.com
What is Bayesian reasoning?
Once you understand what is, you'll spot Bayesian reasoning in science, medicine - and many aspects of daily life.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
Lula should decline the invitation to join Trump's board of peace. Brazil always wanted to be a permanent member of the UN's Security Council. But this Trump's private version is surreal as most of the things the orange man does and says...
media.tenor.com
a man is sitting in a chair with the words i am the council on the screen behind him .
ALT: a man is sitting in a chair with the words i am the council on the screen behind him .
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
"If Brazilians submitted a shoe to the Oscar, everyone would vote for it, says the Sirât's director" Really? How many awards for best international feature film has Brazil won? Well, just one in six nominations... I hope we get a second one.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
This is indeed the best meme song of 2025. I love it m.youtube.com/shorts/fa3U-...
m.youtube.com
The Best meme song of 2025
YouTube video by Iliya Shojaei
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Here in Brazil all graduate programs are evaluated by a government agency called CAPES, and the programs get grades up to 7 every 4 years. For reference, PhD programs usually start with 4 points. Programs with a 7 are usually internationally recognized by peers.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
2026 resolutions: - starting running again (I had a knee injury just before the pandemic, then I stopped doing sports running and taekwondo) - camping / hiking (alone and/or with family). There are some great places near Rio, like the Parnaso - work less (I was this close to a burnout this year)
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 26/12/2025
I have recently realised that I am not an intellectual person, some may call me a scientist which I am not sure if it is right. I am Brazilian civil servant (public health researcher) and a part time lecturer devoted to (Bayesian) stats mostly applied to infectious disease epidemiology.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
No Rio de Janeiro temos um mês inteiro. 😅
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
I need this sort of holidays. Translating: - Stop thinking about work. - Sorry.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
I was going to reject reviewing a manuscript. I entered the journal website and I thought I was accepting the cookies of the journal website but I was in fact accepting the revision 🤡
media.tenor.com
a clown is sitting at a desk with a computer
ALT: a clown is sitting at a desk with a computer
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
SARI (Severe acute respiratory illness) cases with influenza detection in Brazil. We had a clear outbreak associated with H1N1 and some states had a second outbreak associated with H3N2. This second "wave" different from the first one is completely out of season.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Yesterday, I gave a talk on the E-vigilancia ("e-surveilance") conference at the FGV (Getúlio Vargas Foundation). My talk was about how Google trends data could improve nowcasts and short term forecasts of dengue cases in Brazil. Marcelo (Fiocruz) and Flavio (FGV) were in the same session.
Myself pretending to know something about nowcast and forecast dengue cases.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
This is somehow scary. Everyone is aware that AI has been used during the writing of a manuscript, but as expected it will eventually be part of the revision process. So scientific publication is going through a big change, and I guess the impact of research will no longer be measured on papers.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
The linkedin games for some reason stopped working on my mobile so I lost my sequences. Although it is only a couple of minutes per day,I haven't realised I was consistently wasting plenty of time with them. I'm glad I am free of them...
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Since I've been working on statistical modelling of infectious diseases from the pandemic onwards I got involved in too many projects leading to several publications which seems nice but it is not! If I could go back in time I would definitely work less, half of it or less. I am exhausted now!
media.tenor.com
a man is walking down a hallway with a suitcase and a dog .
ALT: a man is walking down a hallway with a suitcase and a dog .
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
In this paper, we describe the southernmost dengue outbreak ever reported. The outbreak occurred on the city of Bahia Blanca, Argentina (~600km south of Buenos Aires). www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Characterization of the most austral autochthonous dengue outbreak reported in the world (city of Bahía Blanca, Argentina, January–June 2024). A cross-sectional study
Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease that is expanding its boundaries, causing outbreaks and autochthonous viral circulation in places where it had …
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
NEW PAPER We developed a statistical model to forecast dengue cases for the next season using the history of cases only. We suggest using the posterior predictive to define epidemics bands. For instance, we could see how huge was 2024 dengue season in Brazil. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 10/08/2025
I usually don't like pictures of myself, but I like this one.
Leo Bastos is presenting a slide with Thomas Bayes and John Snow at a conference.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
When Thomas Bayes meets John Snow. Presented in Vitória, capital of Espírito Santo state, at the 69th RBRAS meeting and 21st SEAGRO
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
The #JSM2025 is about to start, the JSM is by far the biggest stats conference I've attended. I went to Miami Beach and Boston, it was a great experience. But nowadays I prefer relatively smaller conferences and outside the US (my visa expired and I am not keen to pass through the application again)
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
In two weeks, I will be a keynote speaker in a national stats conference. I am quite happy about that but also very nervous. I will talk about Bayesian learning on infectious disease surveillance, so it is time to start preparing my talk (and finish it 10 minutes before the actual conference... 😅)
media.tenor.com
a close up of a man making a funny face while smiling .
ALT: a close up of a man making a funny face while smiling .
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 19/07/2025
Can you imagine if last year the Brazilian visa were revoked from the NY judge and the jury members (and their families) after Trump being convicted of crimes? Super weird, isn't it? Well, it seems the opposite is OK for some... www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
theguardian.com
Rubio moves to strip US visas from eight Brazilian judges in Bolsonaro battle
Move by Marco Rubio is latest attempt by Trump administration to help former president avoid justice over alleged coup
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Trump will soon add new tariffs for all countries to guarantee global security like Italian mafia or Brazilian militia does on their territories (you can name your "favourite" group/organisation/gang/whatever that charges others to guarantee their security)
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
I am quite surprised and impressed by Chelsea's result at the final against PSG. But the match I am interested in today is from another blue jersey team at the Brasileirão 🦊😅😬 Cruzeiro X Grêmio
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
It is a bit frustrating knowing that the 2028 ISBA World meeting will be in the US (Milwaukee). Nothing against the venue itself, but to have to pass through the annoying Visa process a Brazilian has to do. It may be convenient for most Bayesians, but it is not for me.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
We had a very special visitor today, @paulamoraga.bsky.social gave us a great lecturer on Spatial data science in R. Thanks Paula!
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
The manuscript "Duration of COVID-19 symptoms in children: a longitudinal study in a Rio de Janeiro favela, Brazil" was recently accepted in the BMJ Open. I am one of the authors and, once published, it will be my 100th peer reviewed paper. A meaningless academic milestone, a cool number though.
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Europeans: we don't really care about the FIFA world club... Dude, my team is not even there and I am watching the games even supporting some clubs (the weaker ones which maybe are no longer the Brazilian ones...)
media.tenor.com
a young boy is making a funny face while wearing a red and blue shirt .
ALT: a young boy is making a funny face while wearing a red and blue shirt .
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Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
As well as interesting data, nice piece of data viz to have outlier line stretch beyond y axis…
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Leo Bastos @leosbastos.bsky.social · 01/06/2025
The Fiocruz main campus is at Av. Brasil. I feel sad to see it called "avenue of Death" but it is true... 😥 www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
theguardian.com
‘Avenue of Death’: the Rio motorway where stray bullets, botched raids and resilience collide
Brazil Avenue was meant to symbolise progress – today it tells the story of a city at war with itself
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