iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Leonardo Carella

It would seem the Home Office has now acquired the ability to impose, without visibility or accountability, shadow bans on students coming to British universities from particular countries. How? Because of the interaction between indiv visa decisions (made by HO alone) and visa rules for unis 1/?

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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

A rather sad announcement from @anandmenon.bsky.social on the future of UK in a Changing Europe. ukandeu.ac.uk/announcement...

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) was founded 12 years ago. We hired our first member of staff on the day of the 2015 election, the outcome of which guaranteed that there would be a referendum on EU membership. The subsequent period has been tumultuous, yet, throughout it all, we have done our utmost to be a source of impartial, research-based analysis.
We were initially supported by the Economic and Social Science Research Council (ESRC), who generously funded the organisation for over a decade. Their foresight in recognising the need to bring social science to the attention of external audiences in this area was impressive.
Our ESRC funding ended in April 2025. Since that time, we have kept going courtesy of the generosity of King’s College London and donations from numerous other sources including the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, Amazon Web Services and the Spanish Government. I’d like to express my heartfelt gratitude to all those who have contributed to the organisation’s longevity.
Sadly, it is now time to bring down the curtain on this act. UKICE will cease to operate at the end of this year. This is – for us at least – a sad occasion. However, we will soon be able to inform you of the exciting ways in which our work – blogs, reports, lunchtime seminars and more – will continue. The website, containing its rich treasure trove of blogs, reports, videos and the Brexit Witness Archive will, of course, remain accessible thanks to the generosity of the Policy Institute at King’s College London.
I’m incredibly proud of what we’ve accomplished over the last decade and of the way we have assessed the Brexit process, the development of the United Kingdom since 2016 and the evolution of UK-EU relations. UKICE has attempted to bridge the gap between social scientists and what some people call the ‘real world’. We have shown a new way of doing social science – engaging, accessible and impartial. While it would be too much to claim to have shaped the debate, I g…

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

In other words, a 10 percent contraction in one of Britain’s most successful exports. If it were steel or fish or other infinitely less profitable sectors, people would be having a meltdown.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

We adapt the definition to the needs of making content :)

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Yes, he's elected in a tier of AMS. In a counterfactual FPTP system, that constituency doesn't exist. So we're claiming him.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I refuse to even countenance the concept of a "Lib Dem leadership contest".

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

A factoid: the leaders of 7 out of the 8 largest Westminster parties have been elected under non-FPTP systems: Burnham (SV), Badenoch (MMP), Flynn (STV), Farage (CLPR), Robinson (STV), Polanski (MMP), ap Iorwerth (MMP). The only party whose leader has no experience outside FPTP is... the Lib Dems.

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Reposted by Leonardo Carella

Pavlos Vasilopoulos @pavlosvas1.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Unlike other sectors that form part of Labour’s superego, the BBC is cutting 1,800–2,000 jobs, but this doesn’t seem to bother anyone in the government.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

None of it was especially serious in my experience, it was just another form of socially tolerated, mildly anti-social thrill-seeking activity for teenagers, like, I don’t know, football hooliganism or graffiti “crews”.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The level of politicisation of high school students in Southern Europe is incredibly hard to explain to Brits. During the Eurozone crisis there were days you’d go like “no school today mum I’m going to an unauthorised march to the ministry, which could easily turn into a riot”.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

lads lads lads I got a ticket for the tapestry here we fucking go

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

One thing I found out the hard way is that Vienna international airport is not in Vienna so if you have a Vienna travel card you can be fined 100€ if you're asked to show your ticket within the first two stops (total duration: 5m) on the S-Bahn/train from Vienna international airport to Vienna.

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Reposted by Leonardo Carella

Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

"How voters evaluate the proportionality-concentration tradeoff" www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... <- people like proportionality less if you tell them there won't be a clear majority

sciencedirect.com

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

This is the modal person I deal with when I'm back at home, but yeah I wouldn't be able to say how common it is.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

(Although it's probably true that this isn't common in Britain.)

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Sure. But I think there's a broader centre-left reluctance to continue supporting Ukraine that follows from a reluctance to shoulder the consequences of actually-doing-something-for-once.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It's probably the most common position in Italy, France, Austria etc. The consensus on Ukraine is crumbling.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I suspect that part of the reason why this combo is especially popular is because - for Europeans - having a view on Ukraine maps clearly onto spending choices with opportunity costs and actual implications for the conflict, while having a view on Palestine is entirely symbolic position-taking.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

As a type he is less Mussolini or Kaiser Wilhelm II than Shutruk-Nahhunte, someone from a time when the whole point of ruling was to carve your name on things. A bronze age belch made flesh.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Historical comparisons to Trump often fail because even history's worst villains and buffoons existed in the shadow of ideas (including terrible ones): religion, divine rights of kings, nationalism, communism, social Darwinism. Trump is entirely unburdened by ideas. He's pure id.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Trump is basically a bronze age ruler. zeteo.com/p/de-trumpif...

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Reposted by Leonardo Carella

Markus Kollberg @markuskollberg.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

🚨New Paper in @polbehavior.bsky.social! Julia Leschke and I ask: What works against populist rhetoric? We find: Advocating for pluralist ideals can mitigate the negative effects of populist rhetoric. link.springer.com/article/10.1... More details below ⏬

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I have moved a double-digit number of times in the UK. I cannot remember having once a good experience with Openreach installation.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

(The only thing I really miss about Twitter is being able to get mad at companies for poor service *cough* Openreach *cough*)

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

In a year’s time, the radical right could very easily be in government in France, Spain, Italy, Austria and Finland. The lamps are going out all over Europe.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I had the same experience. Besides the ethical and scientific value of this, just from a strategy point of view don’t people get how much this antagonises reviewers?

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Reposted by Leonardo Carella

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

New feature @irishpollingind.bsky.social: you can now explore election results and polling estimates from 1987 to 2026 interactively. Select one or more parties to check how their (combined) support has changed. The graph also lists cabinets and government composition. pollingindicator.com/#graphs

Party support in general elections and opinion polls, 1987 to 2026 – graph covers all parties included in the Irish Polling Indicator

Combined support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, 1987–2026

Combined support for Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Labour, Green Party, and Solidarity-PBP, 1987–2026

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I did a session on “executives” - which includes the presidential/parliamentary stuff - and a session on Lijphart’s patterns of democracy, but this is a course on comparative democracies so the regime typology was already narrowed down by design.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I had been waiting for a good regime types map! I had to put in a disclaimer in the one I used last semester...

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Royal Holloway @royalholloway.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Royal Holloway, King's College London and The University of Manchester have been awarded leadership of the British Election Study (BES) - the most authoritative survey of electoral behaviour in the UK. Read more: ow.ly/Kykq50ZTX0o PIR at Royal Holloway

White sign with bold black text and arrow pointing right indicating polling station location on a brick wall.

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Reposted by Leonardo Carella

Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

For my new research unit Politics of Democracy at the Berlin Social Science Center @wzb.bsky.social, we have 3 open research positions. 2 postdocs: 4 + 2 years (100%) 1 doc: 2 years (75%) Starting date: 1 March 2027 (negotiable) Application deadline: 1 November

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I'm sure the speech must have killed them.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

AI reviews (1) are rarely the most scathing - they tend to hedge and dole out "major revisions" to duds and good papers alike; (2) tend to gnaw at limitations reported transparently in the paper, rather than figure out obvious-but-unsaid problems. Both tendencies have obvious systemic downsides.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Even worse, I just had my first experience as reviewer of a clearly AI generated manuscript. Hours and hours of my life spent telling an algorithm why it's making no sense.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Believe me, nobody enjoys a long, luxurious sniff of the "abolishing the triple lock is at net +40 approval with the public" hopium more than I do. But it's hopium - when/if it's happening, it's going to be massively unpopular. Triple lock reform is worth 15bn, 10 times the WFA cuts.

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Electoral reform: “I hear you, I agree with you, and today I am announcing a new national commission on electoral reform.” Biggest opportunity to reform FPP in perhaps a century has now arrived. But long way to go…

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Figuring out what’s going on in Suella Braverman’s head is a lot easier when you know she’s part of a cult.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Yes. It's infuriating. And arming Ukraine is the baseline, domestic rearmament and getting a defence strategy for the first time in 30 years should also be high up on the agenda.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

That is going to be tested in the French and Italian 2027 elections. UK is a weirdly sane outlier here.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The fact that we’re being attacked by Russia doesn’t fit anyone’s narrative: if you’re a democrat, it means our spending priority is arming Ukraine, not all the nice welfare policies you really like; if you’re an authoritarian, it clarifies that the real threat to our way of life is people-like-you.

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

More generally, in Western Europe we’ve collectively decided that if we ignore Russian hybrid influence operations hard enough, Putin is just going to get bored and move on.

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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026

Another thought on this: we’re going to end up with PR-like electoral fragmentation, but without any of the predictability. Worst of both worlds.

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