iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

And combine with this, and it’s not great bob. Neither of these are Oregon-caused problems, but any regional economy would suffer if two major pillars falter.

120

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Yikes. It’s all speculation right now. But if the R&D shrinks that’s a full fledged regional economic problem.

120

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

Plus lots of good navel gazing for those who know Bend, and Oregon and the people working on and advocating for housing policy.

010

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

Really enjoying @jonathanmbach.bsky.social new book on Bend housing that’s really about Oregon/Blue states, land use, affordability. But, as good reporters do, he pairs it with the humanity of the housing crisis, including his own.

4131

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Portland domestic migration is back to treading water. Urban neighborhoods still negative, but metro region at 0 over past year, implying some positive quarters. Baseline outlook is still for small, positive gains but will see. I was fooled by the head fake 18 mths ago.

090

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

Got 👦🏻 a jersey 👕 of his favorite soccer player ⚽️ for Christmas 🎅 He plays as him in video games 🎮 Our shared 👨🏻‍🍼soccer fantasy team 🧝🏻‍♂️ is named The Martinezes. But one of them is not like the others 😍😈🤡 Yes this also counts as a United relegation battle tweet 🤣

140

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 25/12/2024

Can’t wait. I love me some institutionalist work!

000

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 25/12/2024

Nice! Can’t wait to read it, only had summaries of North before. Read a lot of Veblen and Galbraith in school…

010

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 25/12/2024

I’m excited about it for sure!

110

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 25/12/2024

Merry Christmas everyone. Don’t be jealous, but you too can get Nobel prize winner book on institutions as well 📈📊🤓❤️ #econsky

4212

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 25/12/2024

Merry Christmas everyone. Don’t be jealous, but you too can get Nobel prize winner book on institutions as well 📈📊🤓❤️

030

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 22/12/2024

Not yet. Changes Census made were to include “humanitarian” migrants. I swear I saw chart of the breakdown but can’t find in now. They then allocated national humanitarian migrants to the states. They are working on refining that methodology. But recent migrants are a lot Central/S Amer, & Ukraine

010

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 21/12/2024

Census with early Xmas present with revised data showing oregon population growing! Gains all international migration, which unlikely to continue, but up is up for now. Need domestic migration to rebound to to see labor force growth.

182

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

lol thanks! Definitely taken out a few (permitted) trees over the years

020

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

Galaxy are low key not good. Seattle always sucks. But the worst thing I saw today was Merry Gentlemen. 2/10 at best. Premise is good! But considering its strippers and One Tree Hill boy, hard to find a less sexy movie. Zero backstory. Zero chemistry. Just all around bad. Next.

020

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

Another successful family Christmas tree hunting trip 🌲🪓l🧑‍🧑‍🧒‍🧒🎄

190

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Thankful for a lot, including my hip that hurts after multiple rounds of footgolf in recent days 👦🏻 ⚽️⛳️ 🦃 🍂 Little man thankful for two 50 yard shots he sank 🔥

060

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Post a perfect album from the 90s that isn’t Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Soundgarden, or Alice In Chains.

130

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Post a picture you took (no description) to bring some zen to the timeline

010

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Is this IRS data? Assume so given it says AGI. 2021 was cap gains boom year so inequality worsened, making it look regressive even as public policy (ui replacement rate, rebates) should be progressive. Unsure if that’s the entire story or not. Can you do components of income by zip code?

110

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

🚨 2024 Christmas Movie Thread 🚨 Hot Frosty. Netflix. This movie was so fetch. Perfect ensemble cast! Ted, Boyle, Doug Judy. 9.5/10. Lots of notes and questions. Mostly wtf is wrong with this town? Nobody finds it weird! At all? Also Jesus like vibes/plot? For a snowman?

230

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

Higher res chart. Looks like the new, revised data takes 25,000 size of potential labor force (assuming same age structure, don’t have those details yet). It’s not catastrophic, but OR is on a slower, smaller trajectory than previously thought

010

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

New Oregon population estimates from Portland State. Big news is ~50k downward revision, in part due to IRS data. Now not much diff b/w PSU & Census. Census ‘24 data in Dec. Impacts: likely none for forecast, expect mediocre growth, but size of potential labor force ~30k smaller

150

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Homes 20-30-40 yrs old are prime remodel candidates. That means homes built when Mr. Brightside, Yeah, and Tipsy were top of the charts need to be remodeled. Given Shaboozey recognizes this speaks to pent up remodel demand.

010

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

I’m becoming more optimistic on remodeling. Fundamentals are aging stock, record home equity, and demographics (millennials about to hit remodel yrs), but also lock-in effect. If you can’t sell/trade up you fix up what you have. Similar to post GFC when stuck in place due to LTV.

240

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 28/09/2024

New state data from BEA. Oregon's overall economy shows solid, middle of the pack growth. However when combined with a stagnant population, Oregon is Top 10 in economic outcomes for residents, things like real GDP per worker & per capita personal income.

020

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 16/03/2024

Oregonians moving across river to SW WA are increasingly higher income (unlike other migrants moving there). However the increase isn’t about super high income HHs (>$200k) it about the broad upper middle class ($100-200k) movers. (PDX is tricounty, NonPDX is all other OR + other states)

000

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 02/03/2024

Rogue Valley Outlook. Summary and slides from SOREDI State of the Rogue Valley event in Medford this week: oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2024/02/29/r...

000

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 25/02/2024

Oregon is becoming more diverse. About 1/3 Millennials & 4/10 Zoomers identify as BIPOC compared to 10-15% of older adults. And while there are ownership disparities these are beginning to decline some. OR homeowners are 17% BIPOC but 25% of new mortgage originations are going to BIPOC borrowers.

021

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 12/12/2023

Looking at county GDP (output), most of OR are broadly in the middle of the pack nationally. There are some clear high flyers but even slower gains aren’t exactly national laggards. Overall this cycle, the state has seen good output gains and average job growth, which means strong local productivity

000

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 09/12/2023

Southern Oregon median household income by census tract. Lots of interesting patterns here! I have upcoming presentations in K Falls and Medford. Will explore other regional patterns in the data too. This map is new ACS 5 yr estimates, using tidycensus in R, with label editing assist from ChatGPT

041

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 07/12/2023

Where did the people leaving Portland move to? Half stayed on West Coast w 30% to WA (19% Clark Co), 19% to CA. Broadly speaking tho most moved to locales with better affordability. Housing underpins migration even if _____ issue(s) still important. oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2023/12/07/w...

000

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 06/12/2023

Portland November 2023 home sales. Market continues to adjust. Inventory and New Listings +10% y/y. With rates falling, Pending Sales now just -4% with prices steady (median 0.3%, avg 2.0%).

000

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 02/12/2023

Some microdata work on WFH by occupation in Central Oregon. New PUMAs too mean get City of Bend data, and then rest of Deschutes, all of Crook and Jefferson together. WFH nationally was 15%, 28% in Bend, 20% rest of Central Oregon. Obviously highest among white collar types.

000

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 02/12/2023

Working from home in the PNW, Oregon, and Portland regions using 2022 ACS data. Back on the tidycensus bandwagon in R.

110

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 23/11/2023

🚨 New Oregon Pop Data 🚨 PSU 2023 estimates are out. +0.5% this year following downwardly revised 2022 to essentially flat. Clackamas was vast majority of revision. Big picture, pop a hair under forecast after revisions. Now let’s see what Census says in the coming weeks.

000

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 18/11/2023

Latest migration data shows over last year the Portland region is holding steady, same number moving in as moving out. Estimating actual quarterly numbers shows second quarter likely slightly negative, but big losses appear over.

050