iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Yikes. It’s all speculation right now. But if the R&D shrinks that’s a full fledged regional economic problem.

Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

Really enjoying @jonathanmbach.bsky.social new book on Bend housing that’s really about Oregon/Blue states, land use, affordability. But, as good reporters do, he pairs it with the humanity of the housing crisis, including his own.

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Portland domestic migration is back to treading water. Urban neighborhoods still negative, but metro region at 0 over past year, implying some positive quarters. Baseline outlook is still for small, positive gains but will see. I was fooled by the head fake 18 mths ago.

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

Got 👦🏻 a jersey 👕 of his favorite soccer player ⚽️ for Christmas 🎅 He plays as him in video games 🎮 Our shared 👨🏻‍🍼soccer fantasy team 🧝🏻‍♂️ is named The Martinezes. But one of them is not like the others 😍😈🤡 Yes this also counts as a United relegation battle tweet 🤣

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 25/12/2024

Merry Christmas everyone. Don’t be jealous, but you too can get Nobel prize winner book on institutions as well 📈📊🤓❤️ #econsky

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 25/12/2024

Merry Christmas everyone. Don’t be jealous, but you too can get Nobel prize winner book on institutions as well 📈📊🤓❤️

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 21/12/2024

Census with early Xmas present with revised data showing oregon population growing! Gains all international migration, which unlikely to continue, but up is up for now. Need domestic migration to rebound to to see labor force growth.

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

Another successful family Christmas tree hunting trip 🌲🪓l🧑‍🧑‍🧒‍🧒🎄

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Thankful for a lot, including my hip that hurts after multiple rounds of footgolf in recent days 👦🏻 ⚽️⛳️ 🦃 🍂 Little man thankful for two 50 yard shots he sank 🔥

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Post a perfect album from the 90s that isn’t Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Soundgarden, or Alice In Chains.

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Post a picture you took (no description) to bring some zen to the timeline

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

🚨 2024 Christmas Movie Thread 🚨 Hot Frosty. Netflix. This movie was so fetch. Perfect ensemble cast! Ted, Boyle, Doug Judy. 9.5/10. Lots of notes and questions. Mostly wtf is wrong with this town? Nobody finds it weird! At all? Also Jesus like vibes/plot? For a snowman?

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

New Oregon population estimates from Portland State. Big news is ~50k downward revision, in part due to IRS data. Now not much diff b/w PSU & Census. Census ‘24 data in Dec. Impacts: likely none for forecast, expect mediocre growth, but size of potential labor force ~30k smaller

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

I’m becoming more optimistic on remodeling. Fundamentals are aging stock, record home equity, and demographics (millennials about to hit remodel yrs), but also lock-in effect. If you can’t sell/trade up you fix up what you have. Similar to post GFC when stuck in place due to LTV.

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 28/09/2024

New state data from BEA. Oregon's overall economy shows solid, middle of the pack growth. However when combined with a stagnant population, Oregon is Top 10 in economic outcomes for residents, things like real GDP per worker & per capita personal income.

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 16/03/2024

Oregonians moving across river to SW WA are increasingly higher income (unlike other migrants moving there). However the increase isn’t about super high income HHs (>$200k) it about the broad upper middle class ($100-200k) movers. (PDX is tricounty, NonPDX is all other OR + other states)

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 02/03/2024

Rogue Valley Outlook. Summary and slides from SOREDI State of the Rogue Valley event in Medford this week: oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2024/02/29/r...

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 25/02/2024

Oregon is becoming more diverse. About 1/3 Millennials & 4/10 Zoomers identify as BIPOC compared to 10-15% of older adults. And while there are ownership disparities these are beginning to decline some. OR homeowners are 17% BIPOC but 25% of new mortgage originations are going to BIPOC borrowers.

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 12/12/2023

Looking at county GDP (output), most of OR are broadly in the middle of the pack nationally. There are some clear high flyers but even slower gains aren’t exactly national laggards. Overall this cycle, the state has seen good output gains and average job growth, which means strong local productivity

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 09/12/2023

Southern Oregon median household income by census tract. Lots of interesting patterns here! I have upcoming presentations in K Falls and Medford. Will explore other regional patterns in the data too. This map is new ACS 5 yr estimates, using tidycensus in R, with label editing assist from ChatGPT

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 07/12/2023

Where did the people leaving Portland move to? Half stayed on West Coast w 30% to WA (19% Clark Co), 19% to CA. Broadly speaking tho most moved to locales with better affordability. Housing underpins migration even if _____ issue(s) still important. oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2023/12/07/w...

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 06/12/2023

Portland November 2023 home sales. Market continues to adjust. Inventory and New Listings +10% y/y. With rates falling, Pending Sales now just -4% with prices steady (median 0.3%, avg 2.0%).

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 02/12/2023

Working from home in the PNW, Oregon, and Portland regions using 2022 ACS data. Back on the tidycensus bandwagon in R.

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 23/11/2023

🚨 New Oregon Pop Data 🚨 PSU 2023 estimates are out. +0.5% this year following downwardly revised 2022 to essentially flat. Clackamas was vast majority of revision. Big picture, pop a hair under forecast after revisions. Now let’s see what Census says in the coming weeks.

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Josh Lehner @lehnerjw.bsky.social · 18/11/2023

Latest migration data shows over last year the Portland region is holding steady, same number moving in as moving out. Estimating actual quarterly numbers shows second quarter likely slightly negative, but big losses appear over.

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