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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Unfortunately, there is a lot of hypocrisy on the part of western governments that diminish any critique of Trump's dealing with Putin here. European countries brought in more Russian fossil fuel imports than they sent aid to Ukraine in 2025. Even Canada imported Russian oil this past year.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Put together, the worst part about the deal is that it comes at Ukraine's expense and gives a propaganda win for Russia. However, the overall impact on the price of diesel will probably be modest. By extension, I don't think it would reverse the GOP's declining fortunes ahead of the midterms.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

We must give some context to those numbers. In 2025, "when Russian refineries were operating normally, diesel exports ⁠stood at about 2.5 million tons per month, or 3.3 million to 3.4 million tons including lower-quality gasoil." In 2026, that number was halved. energynow.com/2026/09/half...

energynow.com

Half of Russia's Top Diesel-Producing Refineries Cut Back Output After Drone Strikes - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com

Six plants account for roughly half of Russia's diesel output Kirishi shut, Volgograd and NORSI running at about 25% capacity, sources say Trump has urged Ukraine to stop strikes on Russian diesel inf...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

"President Donald Trump said Friday that Russia will supply more than 4 million tons of diesel to the global market under a deal he struck with President Vladimir Putin." www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/t...

cnbc.com

Trump strikes deal with Putin to supply Russian diesel to U.S. and global markets

President Donald Trump has few options to reduce diesel prices given the destruction done to refineries by the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

"Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States would make Portugal a “very competitive” offer to replace its F-16 fleet. The development adds a high-level political push to an increasingly intense competition over the Portuguese Air Force’s next fighter." www.twz.com/air/u-s-make...

twz.com

U.S. Makes F-35 Push As Portugal Weighs F-16 Replacement

The U.S. bid faces European rivals as Lisbon weighs the cost, capability, and strategic implications of its next fighter. Washington is pushing the F-35 as Portugal weighs replacing its aging F-16 fle...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

"During the exercise to secure Oslo Airport in a war situation, the Home Guard soldiers discovered that Chinese-owned rental cars had stored videos of them – and even the codes they entered on military gates." www.dn.no/forsvar-og-s...

dn.no

Kinesisk-eide leiebiler filmet hemmelig øvelse: Lagret video av soldater og koder (+)

Under øvelsen som skal sikre Oslo lufthavn i en krigssituasjon, oppdaget HV-soldatene at kinesisk-eide leiebiler hadde lagret videoer av dem – og til og med kodene de tastet inn på militære porter.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

There goes the Franco-German tank program. One can never be too pessimistic about European joint produciton. "MGCS—which involves KNDS France, KNDS Germany, Rheinmetall and Thales—has been bogged down by years of delays, industrial disputes and political tensions." www.politico.eu/article/fren...

politico.eu

French top general acknowledges joint tank program with Germany has failed

Major industrial program was dogged by years of delays, industrial disputes and political tensions.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Yeesh ... "Multiple reports now say that U.S. Air Force B-1 Lancers left the United Kingdom over the weekend due to the threat of an Iranian-directed near-field drone attack broadly akin to Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb that decimated Russian bombers." www.twz.com/air/glaring-...

twz.com

Glaring Lack Of Investment In Aircraft Shelters Highlighted By B-1B's Sudden Retreat From U.K. Airbase

At this point, it could take a disaster for the USAF to invest in giving its prized assets sitting in the open on flightline physical cover from drone attacks.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Good read on how the JEF could be improved: It "currently falls short of its strategic potential ... This is not to say that this potential cannot be unlocked though, as a number of steps can be taken to strengthen the group’s position in the Wider North." www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-memora...

britainsworld.org.uk

Towards a JEF naval ecosystem: A blueprint for British leadership in the High North

The Memorandum | No. 48.2026

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

"It can be easy to dismiss bureaucratic restructuring as simply shuffling people from one government entity to another. But Bill C-40, should it become law, represents the most significant change to Canada’s defence procurement landscape in 75 years." www.theglobeandmail.com/business/com...

theglobeandmail.com

Opinion: As Carney remakes defence procurement, he builds the plane as he flies

If Bill C-40 becomes law, it will be the biggest change to Canada’s defence procurement landscape in 75 years

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

"Police have arrested the former head of Germany's BND foreign intelligence agency (1998-2005), August Hanning, on suspicion of espionage, the federal prosecutor's office announced Tuesday." www.dw.com/en/germanys-...

dw.com

Germany's ex-spy chief arrested for espionage and treason

August Hanning, the man who once led Germany's spy service, is now under investigation for passing on state secrets.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Recall Putin's hypochondria and what COVID did to Russia's health care system. "Nearly 200 people have been placed under medical observation in Russia’s Irkutsk region in eastern Siberia over suspected exposure to plague, according to local media reports." www.cnbc.com/2026/10/05/s...

cnbc.com

Russia hospitalizes almost 200 people after researcher's death from plague: Reports

Nearly 200 people are under medical observation in Russia’s Irkutsk region over suspected exposure to plague, according to local media reports.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Richard, Balkan, and I have a new op-ed, this time with @ipolitics.bsky.social. The key quote that signals the basic argument: "Yet, despite its apparent realism, [Carney's foreign policy] strategy smacks of an undue idealism about what the EU can offer Canada." www.ipolitics.ca/2026/10/01/c...

ipolitics.ca

Carney’s foreign policy idealism

Alas, Carney and his government might genuinely believe that the EU holds much promise for Canada. If so, then they might be in for a rude awakening. One wonders whether the oxygen could have been spe...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

"Unfortunately, there are significant challenges that confront Canada’s push for rearmament and economic mobilization that will manifest themselves in the coming years. Carney’s rhetoric, while encouraging, should not be swallowed uncritically." macdonaldlaurier.ca/carney-is-ta...

macdonaldlaurier.ca

Carney is talking big about taking defence seriously. Don’t get your hopes up: Richard Shimooka in The Hub | Macdonald-Laurier Institute

The government’s strategy to tie defence spending to domestic economic benefits may not adequately address the pressing threats Canada faces.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Former CDS Eyre: "I, like the handful of CAF senior leaders present, had a hard time reconciling these otherwise great speeches [re: Ukraine aid] with both the billion-dollar budget cut that they had just inflicted on us and their lethargy to approve a new defence policy." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

cbc.ca

'Thrown under the bus': Former defence chief's memoir lays bare his battles with the Trudeau government | CBC News

Former defence chief Wayne Eyre considered quitting "several times" as he battled the Trudeau government over military misconduct, defence spending and support for Ukraine. His candid memoir recounts ...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

At this rate, Republicans will join Democrats in wishing for the midterms to come to pass as soon as possible.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

A good backgrounder on the events taking place at RAF Fairford today. "RAF Fairford is a major hub for US military aircraft in the UK ... Bomber strikes launched from Fairford were a central aspect of major US combat operations against Iran earlier this year." www.twz.com/air/british-...

twz.com

British Police Arrest Men Driving Toward U.S. Bomber Base In The U.K. With Suspected Explosives

RAF Fairford is a key hub for U.S. bomber and other operations, and was major launch point for strikes on Iran earlier this year.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

"On Thursday, 24 September, the Saeima approved the participation of the National Armed Forces in multinational military operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Latvia plans to deploy up to 20 soldiers to clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines." eng.lsm.lv/article/soci...

eng.lsm.lv

Latvia will send up to 20 soldiers to clear Hormuz

On Thursday, 24 September, the Saeima approved the participation of the National Armed Forces (NBS) in multinational military operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Latvia plans to deploy up to 20...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

"Latvia is moving toward acquiring Anduril Industries’ Barracuda family of long-range strike missiles ... If the acquisition goes through, Latvia would be the first of the Baltic states to field a strike weapon in this category." www.twz.com/news-feature...

twz.com

Latvia To Order Anduril’s Barracuda Cruise Missile For Long-Range Strike Capability

The missile deal would drastically expand Riga’s precision-fire reach as NATO’s eastern flank races to build up its conventional long-range strike capabilities. The missile deal would drastically expa...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

It was a pleasure to contribute to this conversation on the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, how we should think of Canada's possible contributions to it, and what returns Canada can get now that we have news that Canada has formally applied to become a member. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-EH...

youtube.com

Should Canada Join the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)?

YouTube video by CDA Institute

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Paul McCartney. Take the song Something. Geddy Lee would have played too notes and Adam Clayton would have just stuck to the root notes. But Paul found the perfect balance between melody and rhythm in that song. Ringo Starr is an underrated drummer, but that's another conversation.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The SSHRC website is so terrible that its administrators caution you against doing anything else online when you are on it: "SSHRC's system does not support browsing simultaneously with multiple browsers or multiple tabs. Doing so will result in loss of data."

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

"A fire at the Starlink ground station in Wola Krobowska, central Poland, is being investigated as a possible act of arson ... The facility is part of strategic telecommunications infrastructure supporting internet connectivity across CE Europe, including Ukraine." defence24.com/geopolitics/...

defence24.com

Starlink station fire in Poland. Possibile slowdown in Ukraine

**A fire at the Starlink ground station in Wola Krobowska, central Poland, is being investigated as a possible act of arson. The incident matters far beyond the damaged equipment. The facility is part...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I would appreciate it if we could learn about our country's foreign policy choices and decision-making in our country's own media outlets. For all the talk of 'buying Canadian' and 'elbows up', we seem to be getting a lot of our information from American sources. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/w...

nytimes.com

Mark Carney Interview: Canada’s Leader Lays Out Vision for Breaking Reliance on U.S.

In a wide-ranging interview, Prime Minister Mark Carney described a tense, evolving relationship with President Trump.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

"Hormuz and Ukraine are the most immediate questions Seoul’s policymakers face today, but they will not be the last. Only a clear strategy will make South Korea a reliable ally and partner." warontherocks.com/seoul-needs-...

warontherocks.com

Seoul Needs a Playbook for Hormuz, Ukraine, and What Comes Next

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump shared a Washington Post opinion piece on his social media, arguing that South Korea should send its

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Good on the two Dartmouth students for having written this report. If the Provost himself uses AI so extensively in a way that would be deeply problematic in many, if not all, courses, how can he expect the College student body to uphold basic academic integrity? www.thedartmouth.com/article/2026...

thedartmouth.com

Op-eds, academic articles by Provost Santiago Schnell flagged as ‘AI-written’ by ‘near-zero error’ AI detector Pangram

Schnell said he used artificial intelligence for “making writing processes more efficient,” but that AI was not a “substitute” for his own “intellectual judgment or authorship.”

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I suspect that Trump has not really thought through the terrible foreign policy implications. That said, on economic terms, is Belarusian potash really that much cheaper than Sask potash given the necessary transportation costs involved and the tariff exemptions? www.ctvnews.ca/canada/artic...

ctvnews.ca

Trump working on deal to buy potash from Belarus for lower price than Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump says he is working on a “massive deal” to purchase potash from Belarus.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Many commentators take it as an article of faith that MAGA is going to be a permanent fixture in American politics. But are we really so sure considering how unpopular its preferred policies have become and how even Trump's personal charisma seems insufficient for keeping his coalition together?

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Imagine being a professor at a major US university, imagine spending decades commenting on US-Russia relations, and imagine not knowing in 2026 that Russia has been cut off from US financial institutions because of sanctions. He took his colleague's claims about sanctions not working too seriously.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

The Canadian media is so parochial. Canada's chief of the defence staff lost a vote to be the NATO Military Committee's next chair, but all we can say is that Trump's misogyny and anti-Canadianism might be responsible here. And yet non-US NATO members preferred Breuer. www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

cbc.ca

Canada's top general loses election to become head of key NATO Military Committee | CBC News

Despite a push from the federal government, Canada's chief of the defence staff has lost a vote to be the next chair of the NATO Military Committee, the alliance's top military authority and a key adv...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

"Sensitive F-35 fighter jet technology was unexpectedly diverted to Hong Kong this summer, sparking an inquiry on Capitol Hill and raising the possibility that China could have access to key components of the highly classified weapon system." www.politico.com/news/2026/09...

politico.com

Hill investigates after F-35 parts diverted to Hong Kong

The incident raises the possibility that top secret weapons technology may have been exposed to a foreign adversary — including China.

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Reposted by Alexander Lanoszka

Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 18/09/2026

The US has warned allies to expect delays of as much as five years in key weapons deliveries as it rebuilds its own depleted munitions stocks.

bloom.bg

US Warns Allies of Delays in Missile Shipments Due to Shortages

The US has warned allies to expect delays of as much as five years in key weapons deliveries as it rebuilds its own depleted munitions stocks.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The title here suggests that the only point of resistance to Gen. Carignan being elected to chair NATO's Military Committee is the U.S. President. Yet I suspect many countries, particularly those in the Eastern flank, have good reasons to vote for Gen. Carsten Breuer. www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

cbc.ca

Canada's top general is up for a senior NATO post. Will Trump get in her way? | CBC News

Canada's Gen. Jennie Carignan faces Germany's Gen. Carsten Breuer on Saturday in a secret-ballot contest to chair NATO's Military Committee. A victory would make Carignan the first woman to hold the p...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

"Taiwan is moving toward a nuclear comeback barely a year after shutting its last reactor, as soaring LNG prices and mounting dependence on imported gas force a rethink of its energy strategy." oilprice.com/Alternative-...

oilprice.com

Taiwan Mulls Nuclear Revival to Cut Its LNG Exposure | OilPrice.com

Restarting almost 3.9 GW of nuclear capacity could eventually displace 4–4.5 million tonnes of LNG annually.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Four German Air Force Eurofighter jets as well as additional contributions from the Italian and Turkish air forces will strengthen the defence of Latvian airspace, particularly while Latvia is holding parliamentary elections early in October. eng.lsm.lv/article/soci...

eng.lsm.lv

Extra NATO jets coming to Latvia during election period

In a significant development on September 17th, it was announced that extra NATO jets will be coming to Latvia "to reinforce Latvian airspace protection during elections."

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

"The US House of Representatives on Wednesday passed legislation giving President Donald Trump broad powers to impose sanctions on Russia and tariffs of up to 100% on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. It will now go to Trump to be signed into law." www.bbc.com/news/article...

bbc.com

India faces 100% tariff threat over Russian oil after US House vote

Trump’s tariff threat puts India’s Russian oil strategy- and its access to the US market - in a new bind.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The news today is that Canada formallly applied to join the UK-led JEF. Back in May, I was asked about this possibility. In short, the idea aligns well with Carney's internatonal strategy, but the problem remains that Canada's military is over-stretched. www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...

britainsworld.org.uk

Should Canada join the JEF?

The Big Ask | No. 15.2026

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Macron's France has not ratified the CETA, so I am sure Le Pen's France will be really excited about the prospects of Canada becoming an 'associate member', whatever that means. Have EU leaders even considered what this discourse implies for ongoing accession processes? www.bbc.com/news/article...

bbc.com

EU chief backs plan for Canada to become 'associate member'

Canada is seeking closer ties with EU after a breakdown in relations with the US and its president Donald Trump.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

New experimental research indicates that "negative alliance signals" have weak and inconsistent effects on individuals' support for acquiring nuclear weapons, with surveys drawn from respondents in Germany, Japan, Poland, and South Korea. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Canadians are generally ignorant of the EU and its politics, but any strong pivot to the EU is loaded with serious risks, not least because of the potential for RN and AfD making major gains in France and Germany, respectively. 10 EU members haven't even ratified CETA ... www.wsj.com/world/europe...

wsj.com

Exclusive | Mark Carney’s Audacious Bid to Make Canada an ‘Associate Member’ of the EU

As trade talks with the U.S. collapse, prime minister pursues a major—and risky—pivot to Europe; an Ottawa book club plays its part.

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Canada's level of seriousness on defence: "Ottawa had no guarantees that Saab's GlobalEye surveillance plane could meet military requirements when it began negotiations to acquire six of the Swedish manufacturer's early warning and control aircraft last spring." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

cbc.ca

GlobalEye gamble: Ottawa chose surveillance plane without knowing it met military needs | CBC News

Ottawa moved to acquire six GlobalEye surveillance aircraft without assurances they met military requirements — requirements not shared with competing manufacturers. Subsequent assessments identified ...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

"... representatives of the Polish Ministry of National Defence and the US Department of State are set to sign an agreement on Wednesday for another loan tranche to fund the purchase of American equipment. Off-the-record reports suggest a figure of $4 billion ..." defence24.com/defence-poli...

defence24.com

Strengthening the eastern flank: Poland’s new US deal

According to information obtained by Defence24, representatives of the Polish Ministry of National Defence and the US Department of State are set to sign an agreement on Wednesday for another loan tra...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

"Turkey’s new defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is unlikely to draw Ankara directly into a war with Iran or India unless the three countries build joint command and troop structures, former Turkish diplomat Mustafa Enes Esen told Turkish Minute." www.turkishminute.com/2026/08/07/t...

turkishminute.com

Turkey’s defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan largely symbolic, former diplomat says - Turkish Minute

Turkey’s new defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is unlikely to draw Ankara directly into a war with Iran or India unless the three countries build joint command and troop structures, former T...

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

"... the Royal Navy’s experience offers a blunt warning: When naval leaders rely on political leadership to preserve fleet size, industrial capacity, and force design, decline can arrive by increments and then suddenly become irreversible." warontherocks.com/2026-and-all...

warontherocks.com

2026 and All That: Another Benchmark Year in Royal Navy Decline

The 1930 comic history, 1066 and All That, made famous the British habit of reducing national history to a sequence of memorable dates. The modern Royal

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Alexander Lanoszka @lanoszka.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

"Despite all of this apparent progress and significant authority to keep pushing ahead, Gen. Michael Guetlein warned today that Golden Dome is facing a potentially insurmountable budget impasse." No kidding. www.twz.com/space/golden...

twz.com

Golden Dome Missile Defense Shield At Risk Of Grinding To A Halt Due To Budget Impasse

Despite progress, "if they don't figure it out, there is no Golden Dome because there is no funding," the top officer in charge says.

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Reposted by Alexander Lanoszka

JD Simkins @jdsimkins.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Families of sailors aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln spoke to Military Times about multiple incidents in which sailors have attempted to go overboard amid the ship's extended deployment in support of combat operations in the Middle East

militarytimes.com

Multiple USS Abraham Lincoln sailors have tried to go overboard amid extended deployment, families say

Multiple sailors aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln have attempted to go overboard as the carrier's deployment stretches into its ninth month.

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