Reposted by @kpdmusing.bsky.socialcassi-ai.bsky.social @cassi-ai.bsky.social · 29/06/2026🍾 Huge congrats to our team - we're back on top. 🥇 Cassi is once again the world's #1 AI Forecaster on the ForecastBench leaderboard. 🤖 Superhuman on "marketplace" questions. We've reclaimed our #1 place held (more or less) January to end May ahead of Deepmind, xAI, Anthropic, OpenAI and others. 022
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 29/06/2026Wow! Hats off to our team on this. Incredible stuff. 000
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 09/02/2026New from Magda Pacholska and I: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... (open access - no paywall).tandfonline.comThe Misguided Effort to Regulate Military AI: No New IHL NeededKeith Dear and Magdalena Pacholska argue that humans are responsible and accountable when delegating the use of lethal force to machines and these actions are regulated by existing international hu... 000
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 08/01/2026Really proud to be leading such a terrific team, and delighted for those leading this specific challenge. We knew we were at the frontier, and pushing it forward. Now the world does too. 000
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 02/12/2025First company post on BSky. Not a bad one to begin with. bsky.app/profile/cass... 010
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 19/11/2025open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...open.substack.comThe Frontier Moves AgainAI progress above and below the surface. 000
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 19/11/2025New Blog - one what's visible, and what's not, in AI Progress. 100
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 07/11/2025New Blog! open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/... 000
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 06/10/2025open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...open.substack.comNever tell me the Odds: Is your CEO Han Solo?Probabilistic strategy, tactics, decisions require a mindset shift: stop hiding from the odds; start moving them. 000
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 06/10/2025New Cassi Blog - rethinking decision-making. 110
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 10/09/2025Terrific fun yesterday talking about this with super smart and engaged audience and brilliant friends and colleagues on stage. Hope you enjoy it as much as I did! open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...open.substack.comPrediction Centric WarfareNotes and slides from my talk at DSEI yesterday. 010
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 02/09/2025New blog: how we see the world at Cassi - decisions, tactics, strategy, perception, agency - everything is prediction. cassiai.substack.com/p/everything... 000
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 19/08/2025Future Diplomat - New Cassi Blog Post out now. open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...open.substack.comFuture DiplomatReimagining Diplomacy for 2035. 010
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 12/08/2025“Don’t be humble, you’re not that great.” Golda Meir I think. In that spirit 😊. But maybe consider subscribing, or upgrading to a paid subscription. cassiai.substack.com 010
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 01/08/2025open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...open.substack.comWhat did you do in the AI Revolution, Daddy?Pre-GPT-5, Post AGI? For too many, hope is the largest part of their AI strategy. We are still under-estimating the speed of AI progress, and the profundity of its implications. 000
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 01/08/2025New blog. 'Just' an update on AI progress. 100
Reposted by @kpdmusing.bsky.socialKobi Hackenburg @kobihackenburg.bsky.social · 21/07/2025Today (w/ @ox.ac.uk @stanford @MIT @LSE) we’re sharing the results of the largest AI persuasion experiments to date: 76k participants, 19 LLMs, 707 political issues. We examine “levers” of AI persuasion: model scale, post-training, prompting, personalization, & more! 🧵: 1010957
Reposted by @kpdmusing.bsky.socialCouncil on Geostrategy @congeostrategy.bsky.social · 04/07/2025@kpdmusing.bsky.social defines asymmetric advantage as ‘demonstrably matching our strengths against other’s weaknesses, in a way that we can show, probabilistically, will lead us to achieve a superior position if we are successful’ #BigAsk #BritainsWorldbritainsworld.org.ukHow should Britain define asymmetric advantage?The Big Ask | No. 27.2025 051
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 04/07/2025Pleased to have my take on the definition of asymmetric advantage in our National Security Strategy published by the Council on Geostrategy - and among a stellar cast offering their views. 010
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 04/06/2025Thoughts on the Review, and my worry we miss the opportunity it gives us. open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...open.substack.comUK Strategic Defence Review (SDR): Reviewing the Review & the Reactionariat.The good, bad and ugly. 000
Reposted by @kpdmusing.bsky.socialKenneth Payne @indescribable.bsky.social · 25/04/2025Robustly demonstrated by now that you don’t need a mind to have theory of mind: 021
kpdmusing.bsky.social @kpdmusing.bsky.social · 09/05/2025New blog post: open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...open.substack.comDoctor Weirdlove or: “How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love Skynet”Why betting on a crewed RAF Tempest is a dangerous gamble—and how ignoring the AGI debate leaves us strategically exposed 011
