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USDA grain export inspections, week ended Oct. 8: 🌽 Corn: 1.302 MMT, up 7.6% YoY. Cumulative: 8.45 MMT, up 5.3%. 🌱 Soybeans: 1.097 MMT, up 7.8% YoY. Cumulative: 5.14 MMT, up 26.6%. mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sit...

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US cattle slaughter fell 11.5% from a year earlier to 104,000 head on Oct. 15, down 4.6% from the previous week, USDA said. Week-to-date slaughter totaled 430,000 head, down 7.4% year over year and 0.5% from the prior week. www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ls...

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Food inflation may be on the horizon. Surging input costs at the earliest stages of food production, driven in part by record-high diesel prices, are raising concerns that consumers could soon face higher grocery bills. www.reuters.com/business/die...

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🌽 Brazil Corn: Conab forecasts 2026/27 production at 148 MMT, up from 144 MMT last year. • 1st crop: 32.1 MMT vs. 29.5 MMT last year • 2nd crop: 113.26 MMT vs. 112.1 MMT USDA's forecast is 139 MMT, 9 MMT below Conab. www.admis.com/ag-market-vi...

On the campaign trail, JB Pritzker courts farmers like he's running for president

Reuters: "The Trump administration is expected to send more than $50 billion to farmers this year, the second-largest relief package in US history. "Yet many farmers say the checks don't make up for the high input costs." www.reuters.com/world/us/cam...

reuters.com

The town of Shirley, Illinois, population 135, is an unlikely place for a campaign stop. Yet billionaire Democrat JB Pritzker traveled there to spar with his opponent in his bid for a third term as go...

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China Boosts US Soybean Purchases Despite Lingering Tariffs Beijing moves closer to its annual purchase commitment even as soybeans remain subject to a 13% tariff and US crush demand shows signs of weakness. goodka.substack.com/p/china-boos...

China Boosts US Soybean Purchases Despite Lingering Tariffs

Beijing moves closer to its annual purchase commitment even as soybeans remain subject to a 13% tariff and US crush demand shows signs of weakness.

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Keith Good @kgooda.bsky.social · 15h

USDA: Private exporters reported sales for 2026/27 delivery: 🌽 127,000 MT of corn to 🇯🇵 Japan 🌱 558,000 MT of soybeans to 🇨🇳 China 🌱 236,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations Total soybean sales: 794,000 MT. www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/exp...

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US retail beef prices eased in September, with the beef and veal price index falling 1% from August and ground beef prices declining 0.8%, government inflation data show. Still, ground beef cost 5.4% more than a year earlier, underscoring continued pressure from tight cattle supplies.

This Chinese export boom really has legs – and wings

🇨🇳 China's drive for food security has created a glut of meat and dairy that domestic consumers can't absorb. Now, Chinese exporters are tapping surplus production to expand into global markets, challenging established suppliers with lower-cost products. www.reuters.com/world/china/...

reuters.com

Overproduction at home is pushing cheap Chinese protein onto global supermarket shelves, undercutting established producers.

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USDA reported private export sales of 330,000 metric tons of US soybeans to 🇨🇳 China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, along with 283,450 tons to unknown destinations reported during the same period. www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/exp...

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Iowa's soybean harvest was 31% complete compared with an average of 59%. Nebraska was 26% complete compared with an average of 55%, according to the latest USDA data on October 11th.

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US Cattle Drought Exposure Eases, but Pasture Recovery May Take Until Spring 🐄 Share of cattle in drought falls to 47% from March peak of 64% as poor grazing conditions persist across the Plains; US records hottest September on record. goodka.substack.com/p/us-cattle-...

US Cattle Drought Exposure Eases, but Pasture Recovery May Take Until Spring

Share of cattle in drought falls to 47% from March peak of 64% as poor grazing conditions persist across the Plains; US records hottest September on record.

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🐄 Drought conditions are easing for US cattle. The share in moderate or worse drought fell to 47% as of Oct. 13, down from 52% a week earlier and a March peak of 64%. Severe or worse drought dropped to 26%, from 28% a week earlier and an April peak of 49%, USDA data show.

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About 42% of Kansas winter wheat acreage was in drought as of Oct. 13, including 13% in severe drought, according to USDA.

About 53% of US winter wheat acreage was in moderate or worse drought as of Oct. 13, including 30% in severe drought, 10% in extreme drought and 2% in exceptional drought, according to USDA.

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Topsoil moisture was rated short to very short across 25% of Nebraska, 23% of Kansas, 59% of Oklahoma and 51% of Texas as of Oct. 11, according to USDA data.🐄

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September was the eighth-driest on record in Arkansas and the second-wettest in Arizona and New Mexico, while Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota also ranked among their 10 wettest Septembers www.usda.gov/sites/defaul...?

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September was the warmest on record in New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana and Missouri, while 18 other states recorded temperatures among their 10 highest for the month, according to USDA.

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🥵☀️ The contiguous US recorded its warmest September on record, according to preliminary data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. www.usda.gov/sites/defaul...?

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🐄 US rangeland and pastures rated poor or very poor improved to 49% as of Oct. 4, down from 53% in September, according to USDA. 🐄 Drought-hit areas may not fully recover until next spring or later, even with favorable rainfall, as the fall growing season winds down. www.usda.gov/sites/defaul...?

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🌧️ Lincoln, Nebraska, recorded its wettest September on record, with 11.49 inches of rain, shattering the previous record of 8.32 inches set in 1914. Weeks of heavy rainfall disrupted corn and soybean harvesting and threatened crop quality, according to the USDA. www.usda.gov/sites/defaul...

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🌧️ More than a foot of rain soaked parts of the Midwest in September. Des Moines, Iowa, recorded 14.50 inches, its second-wettest September on record, trailing only the 14.81 inches measured in 1914, according to the USDA. www.usda.gov/sites/defaul...?

IEA Sees Tight Diesel Supplies Continuing Into 2027 Illinois diesel prices average $6.57 a gallon as farmers continue harvesting corn and soybeans. goodka.substack.com/p/iea-sees-t...

IEA Sees Tight Diesel Supplies Continuing Into 2027

Illinois diesel prices average $6.57 a gallon as farmers continue harvesting corn and soybeans.

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A cold front draped across the Plains and Midwest will remain the focus for heavy showers and severe thunderstorms through Thursday, with rainfall totals expected to reach 2 to 5 inches from western Texas into the middle Mississippi Valley, the USDA said in its daily Weather Highlights.

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Kansas winter wheat planting is lagging, with 44% planted versus the 56% five-year average. Kansas is the nation’s top hard red winter producer.

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Friday’s post-USDA corn plunge is offering much-needed margin relief to feedlots. Lower grain costs help, but with feeder cattle still sitting at near-record highs, overall margin expansion remains tightly squeezed.

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In Iowa, only 14% of corn had been harvested, compared with a five-year average of 34%.

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Oil Market Report - October 2026 - IEA

A prolonged squeeze in global diesel supplies risks persisting well into 2027, according to the International Energy Agency, extending input-cost pressures across the U.S. agricultural supply chain. www.iea.org/reports/oil-...

iea.org

The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on o...

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EXCLUSIVE: China buys 8-10 US soybean cargoes in first deals since Trump-Xi summit, sources say

Chinese 🇨🇳 state buyers purchased 8-10 Panamax cargoes of US 🇺🇸 soybeans 🌱 this week, the first such deals since the September summit between ‌Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington, three trade sources told Reuters on Wednesday. www.reuters.com/world/china/...

reuters.com

Chinese state buyers purchased 8-10 Panamax cargoes of US soybeans this week, the first such deals since the September summit between ‌Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington, three trad...

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Illinois Corn Harvest Passes Halfway Mark as Wheat Planting Lags Illinois corn 🌽 and soybean 🌱 harvests move ahead of historical averages, while U.S. winter wheat 🌾 planting trails its usual pace and Plains pasture conditions remain mixed. goodka.substack.com/p/illinois-c...

Illinois Corn Harvest Passes Halfway Mark as Wheat Planting Lags

Illinois corn and soybean harvests move ahead of historical averages, while U.S. winter wheat planting trails its usual pace and Plains pasture conditions remain mixed.

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The USDA cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 3 million tons to a five-year low of 40 million tons in 2026-27.

EPA Confirms 100% Reallocation for Refinery Biofuel Exemptions

The Trump administration plans to require refiners to blend more biofuels in 2026 and 2027, offsetting 100% of volumes exempted under 2025 small-refinery waivers. The EPA proposal could boost demand for US corn and soybeans, Bloomberg reports. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

The Trump administration said it will make up for lost biofuels demand after the biggest breaks from blending mandates for refiners in nearly a decade, providing a boost for American farmers.

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Illinois corn production is forecast to fall 2.8% to 2.28 billion bushels in 2026 as yields decline to 208 bushels per acre from 214 last year, with the yield estimate also revised down one bushel from September’s forecast of 209.

USDA's October crop report surprised markets with a 2.7-bu increase in US corn yields, pushing futures lower. Yield gains were concentrated in the Great Plains and Deep South, USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez told USDA Radio. (www.usda.gov/about-usda/n...) goodka.substack.com/p/illinois-c...

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Soybean futures fell as much as 1% on the Chicago Board of Trade, declining for a second straight day as China held off on significant purchases following a weeklong holiday and ample US supplies continued to weigh on prices. (Bloomberg) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Soybean exports from the U.S. and Brazil, 2023-25 average.

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Corn exports from the U.S. and Brazil, 2023-25 average.

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Brazil has shipped its first sorghum cargo to China as production has more than doubled in four years. With US exports facing trade friction and uneven demand, Brazil could soon overtake the US as the world's top sorghum producer. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for October 18 – 22 calls for the likelihood of near- or above-normal temperatures and precipitation across much of the country.

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According to today's USDA Weather Highlights, mostly dry conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt are providing ideal conditions for summer crop maturation and harvesting.

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The USDA lowered its forecast for the season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers on Friday by 10 cents to $4.70 per bushel for the 2026/27 marketing year.

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U.S. corn exports climbed 17% by volume to nearly 80 million metric tons in the first 11 months of fiscal 2026, while their value increased 15% to $17.9 billion from a year earlier.

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European corn futures rose for the first time in four days after the USDA cut its EU corn forecast to 48 million tons and lowered wheat estimates. Paris corn gained as much as 1.3%, while wheat reached €244.75 a ton amid renewed buying interest from Algeria. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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A Rare ‘Super’ El Niño Is Looking More Likely. Here’s What to Expect (Bloomberg) El Niño may boost Calif. avocado & almond yields through increased rainfall, while hotter, drier conditions could threaten rice, wheat, palm oil, coffee & sugar production elsewhere www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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USDA Compares U.S. 🇺🇸 and Brazilian 🇧🇷 Corn and Soybean Production Costs Analysis compares corn 🌽 and soybean 🌱 costs per acre and per bushel, including regional differences in the U.S. Heartland and Mato Grosso. goodka.substack.com/p/usda-compa...

USDA Compares U.S. and Brazilian Corn and Soybean Production Costs

Analysis compares corn and soybean costs per acre and per bushel, including regional differences in the U.S. Heartland and Mato Grosso.

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