iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I've seen them doing so! (Although I didn't understand what was happening at first. :) ) Feels like a bit of a hack though. Why not electrify such a short, high-traffic route through the centre of Wales' capital city? You never know when it might be useful to be able to run a standard EMU on it.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

AMS wouldn't be my first choice though, and I think the Scottish parliament should replace it, as the Senedd has. It's far better for all members of the legislature to be on the same footing, which means all members representing multi-member constituencies.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I don't get the suggestion that AMS "[requires] fewer changes to electoral districts". Presumably if the UK HoC is to stay at 650 members, every single constituency (excluding the protected ones) will need to become bigger, in order to make space for the list members.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I don't really mind if a couple of parties stitch up a deal on which system to use, as Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru did in Wales - as long as it's a genuine PR system, and, if it's AMS, the proportion of list members is large enough to make election results sufficiently proportional.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

An interesting read, but it seems a bit odd that a list system isn't mentioned as a likely option, given that it's the only PR system that has already been used in England - and is now also used in Welsh general elections. @robfordmancs.bsky.social

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

What about electrifying the railway between Cardiff Queen Street and Cardiff Central?

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

There is nothing wrong with minority government. It’s not even ‘foreign’. Scotland and Wales are governed by minority governments right now.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

- “a coalition would be inevitable” - “a coalition would be needed” - “a three-way coalition would be almost certainly needed” The former statement is the correct one. Coalitions are not inevitable, and all of the coverage about PR in the last 24 hours that claims that they are is just incorrect.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

It’s a nice article from Antonio Voce and @ashleyjkirk.bsky.social - but it makes some contradictory statements. - “the UK could end up being governed by a minority government“ vs - “Labour would be 76 seats short of a majority, and would need to enter a coalition to form a government”

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

It's great that you make clear that this article is about England. Would be curious whether @centreforcities.bsky.social has a view on what should happen with NDR in Scotland and Wales, and indeed NI - ideally one that is rooted in the current debates in each nation and not just "Copy England".

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

A more national devolution-respecting approach would seem to be to give the devolved governments the same share of corporation tax (w/ a BGA), and then say: if you want to further devolve this within your nations, we’re happy to work w/ you on the statutory mechanism for that, but you don’t have to.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The UK government could say: if you create MSAs on the English model, they can get the same share of corporation tax; otherwise, no dice. But that would seem rather antagonistic, particularly given the devolved governments do not currently appear to want directly elected city-region mayors.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

(Northern Ireland of course having a much more substantive but so far uncommenced power over corporation tax.)

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

On corporation tax, do you have any thoughts on how the devolved nations would fit in to this plan (since presumably they wouldn’t be content to just sit back and let English city regions get a share of corporation tax while they get none)?

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Makes sense. I just wondered whether it would be easier to impose England-wide uniformity now when everyone’s excited about fiscal devolution, than it would be to attempt to do so later when it may create losers.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Shouldn’t the English MSAs - perhaps collectively - have their own fiscal framework with HMT which commits to no detriment - with a presumption that reduced income tax receipts which are the mechanical result of a UKG income tax policy change result in a corresponding increase in the MSAs’ share?

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Very much agree on the need for a formal way of handling changes to income tax (and corporation tax). The devolved governments have a similar issue.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

With a different figure for every area, it feels less like this has a strong principled basis, and more just that a share number has been reverse-engineered from a desired GBP amount.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I’m not aware of any jurisdiction that uses so many different shares. Montenegro has a few, but they are in categories, not bespoke for every area.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Wouldn’t it be an option - and arguably easier for people to understand the gist of - to just go for a consistent share (7%) from day 1, and do a more fiddly equalization for a few years?

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Great thread. I didn’t understand until I read your more detailed comments that you are indeed proposing a single share of income tax for all English MSAs (ie, ex London) - the headline coverage on the CfC website is very focused on the different shares for each MSA.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

As Rewiring the State acknowledges, local government policy is a devolved matter, so presumably the discussion will be about what the English devolution white paper will mean for economic growth across England.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Wouldn’t it have been possible/preferable to write… “… the UK government’s plan to use business rates to deter ‘anti-social’ businesses in England …”? @helenmiller.bsky.social @benzaranko.bsky.social

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

You said I was wrong. I cited evidence from Newcastle University showing I was right. Yet rather than conceding that point, or even debating the substance of different meso-level government options, you’re playing the man not the ball. Why post on here at all if you don’t want your views challenged?

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Just as you would prefer a smaller flat, I would like a large range of new, 50 sq m, 1-bed apartments to choose from. ;) (Again, because of the weird UK culture, 2-beds are not particularly attractive either, as they command a large premium that isn't directly correlated with their floorspace.) /4

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

...build a single 50 sq m apartment (except perhaps in boutique developments) if NDSS is relaxed. Whereas in London, they have to, because the mayor and GLA run a much tighter ship. /3

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

One issue I have with relaxing NDSS, based on the empirical evidence from rEngland, is that - particularly in a culture like the UK where people don't choose accommodation principally based on its floorspace (unlike much of Europe and North America) - developers will not... /2

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I thought you were proposing a reduction from 50 sq m, but I see you're actually proposing a reduction from 37 sq m! 18 sq m is like a hotel room! That said, co-living developments can (and do) already have rooms that size, so what's the issue? /1

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Why do we necessarily have to have a model involving the direct election of a single individudal at the regional level, when we don't do that at either the local or national level? /8

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

You could, for example, have regional councils (as the Nordic countries have, and Scotland used to have). Those regional councils would have their own set of responsibilities, and would elect a leader, much as Glasgow City Council or Manchester City Council do today. /7

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

The English model - by which I mean directly elected mayors at the city region level - is already meeting resistance in some parts of England (not least of all Cornwall), so it is not unreasonable to think that it may not be right for everywhere, or that alternatives may be equally valid. /6

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

However, it is also the case that, rather than doing a whole-of-OECD/whole-of-literature analysis, many commentators in England are lazily suggesting that the devolved nations should simply get in line with the 'UK default' that is England and adopt the English model. /5

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I am a resident of England and, as I said, am sympathetic to the model. I particularly like how it has worked in places like GM. /4

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

"Despite a body of normative literature that lauds the role of mayors, the evidence on the impacts of DEMMs is sparse. There are very few international examples of mayors being directly-elected at the scale of the metropolitan city-region." committees.parliament.uk/writtenevide... /3

committees.parliament.uk

PDE0006 - Evidence on Progress on devolution in England

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

It is simply not true to suggest that this model exists all over the OECD. /2

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I am not talking about mayors or local government leaders in general - local authorities in the devolved nations all have mayors or leaders, never mind elsewhere in the OECD. I am talking about the specific English model of directly elected mayors at the city region level. /1

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Presumably the devolution-respecting thing for the UK government to do would be to give each of the devolved governments the choice between receiving the corporation tax receipts for their nation at the national level, or further distributing them to sub-national bodies within their nation. /2

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Interesting report. What is the proposal for the devolved nations, given that corporation tax is reserved but local government finance is devolved (and there is still a non-commenced power on the statute book for Northern Ireland to set corporation tax rates)? /1

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

…despite all of the alternative models in the rest of the developed world and in our own history that could also be used. /3

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

That said, I also think it is more than a tad Anglocentric, not to mention narrow-minded, to think that because England has alighted on this particular model, at this moment in history, then Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales should also do so… /2

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I am sympathetic to the model - albeit I would go further and have assemblies like in London to hold the mayors to account. I am more than happy to have more politicians. /1

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Unless we’re planning to roll back 15 years of space standards in London by central govt fiat (which would be very anti-devolution), further relaxing the requirements of NDSS in the rest of England would further increase the divide between the quality of new homes in London and those in rEngland. /3

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Whereas the London Plan strictly requires it - plus private outdoor space on top. Meaning that if you compare 2026 new-build 1-bed apartments in London with those in, say, Manc/GM, those in London are much nicer places to live - they’re all 50 sq m, and they mostly all have a 5 sq m balcony. /2

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I really disagree with relaxing NDSS. English councils are already free to require adherence to NDSS or not, and, while many pay lip service to it in their local plans (and PfE in GM), they are constantly letting developers use viability as an excuse not to stick to it. /1

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Isn’t it still ‘central govt knows best’ - something Burnham claims to hate - to arbitrate centrally on a percentage rate vs a flat fee? Why not let English mayors/FSAs decide and be accountable for their decision locally? There are strong arguments for both methods - as Scotland has now realised.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Surely prioritising local autonomy (as Burnham claims to) would mean learning the lessons from Scotland (which initially only permitted a percentage rate) and giving a choice of a percentage rate or a flat fee. There are strong arguments in favour of both - why not let English mayors/FSAs decide?

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Albeit mayors with spatial planning and call-in powers only exist in England.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Also delighted that BBC News makes clear in the headline that this overnight visitor levy policy applies to England.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Also worth observing that, since Scotland Act 2016, Holyrood's electoral system is no longer a reserved matter, so Scottish parliament is now actively choosing to keep AMS (notwithstanding two-thirds majority required for change). Westminster isn't responsible any more - as Senedd has shown.

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Kenneth MacArthur @kennethmac2000.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Really enjoyed this! On topic of electoral systems, could have been interesting to mention that Senedd, which had exact same AMS system as Holyrood, has now replaced this. Wales often seems more willing to make bold change than Scotland is (where it has power) - see also council tax revaluation.

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