iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

Super excited to share that I have accepted a role within the analytics department with the Denver Nuggets moving forward! Eternally grateful to everyone here for their support for my content over the years, this is a dream come true for me. Excited to get started!

1180

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

Gracias por los recuerdos, Sudamérica Volveré pronto!

030

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 06/07/2025

Time for the annual "let's extremely overreact to summer league box scores" part of the offseason

031

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

NBA G-League values have been added to the International League BPM database, as well as the following leagues: Australian NBL1, German NBBL, Argentina (Liga A, Liga Argentina, Liga Desarrollo), Uruguay (LUB), Venezuela, Basketball Africa League, Turkish U19 Super League

010

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 15/06/2025

Similarly to my International League Box Plus-Minus (BPM) database, I created a spreadsheet depicting the BPM values of every FIBA Youth Competition, going back historically as far as I could find data. Link below! docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

021

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 10/06/2025

I computed the Box Plus-Minus (BPM) for almost every major international league! The spreadsheet includes over 40 domestic and continental competitions, from Europe, Asia, and South America. A must-have tool for international hoops fans/scouts/coaches. Link below!

293

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

It's that time of the year again! Here is where my Machine Learning Big Board stands on the best available prospects from the NCAA ranks in this year's NBA Draft. Rankings are determined by expected performance over a player's rookie contract Note that this is *not* my opinion

130

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 01/06/2025

Combine Score website has gotten over 100,000 hits over the past month, which is absolutely crazy. Thank you all so much for the support, this means the world to me

020

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 30/05/2025

I computed the Box Plus-Minus (BPM) values for most of the early-entry International/G league prospects to the 2025 NBA Draft Here they are in ranked order. Note that some teams are still playing games. These values are through this morning

060

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

Pending last min changes, this is the final draft status of every prospect who declared for the 2025 NBA Draft and was invited to the combine. Final withdrawal rate: 12/40 (30%). Not much higher than last year; however, the percentage of autoeligible players (38%) is much higher

051

Reposted by Nick Kalinowski

Iztok Franko @iztokfranko.bsky.social · 27/05/2025

🚨Lakers fans alert 🚨 New Draft Data Deep Dive with @kalidrafts.bsky.social Athletic, defensive-minded gems the Lakers could target in the 2nd round. Exactly what this roster is desperate for. 📊 Stats, comps, and Combine models digginbasketball.substack.com/p/draft-data...

digginbasketball.substack.com

Draft Data Deep Dive, Part II: Athletic Wings and Second-Round Gems for the Lakers

Let’s talk data, models, and other insights on athletic wings, bigs, and low-risk gambles

111

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 26/05/2025

The Adidas Next Generation Tournament (ANGT) recently concluded, and I have calculated the Box Plus-Minus (BPM) values for every player who participated. Here are the top 20 qualified players, and the link below will include all players who appeared in >60 minutes of gametime

100

Reposted by Nick Kalinowski

Iztok Franko @iztokfranko.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

🚨Cooper Flagg Data Deep-Dive🚨 Stats, comps, and a detailed Q&A with @kalidrafts.bsky.social‬ on the most hyped prospect in years. With data, models, tons of comps, playmaking, fit in Dallas...👇 digginbasketball.substack.com/p/draft-data...

digginbasketball.substack.com

Draft Data Deep Dive, Part I: The Cooper Flagg Comparisons You Haven’t Heard Yet

Let’s talk data, models, and other insights on the prodigy prospect

0104

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

Today's Athletic Profile Comparison: Walter Clayton Jr. and Brandon Knight

100

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

College coaches and fans, with the recent flood of international prospects into the NCAA, I aimed to create a system to compare the best eligible players from the major European leagues against one another Introducing: The Recruit Points model, a 7-category statistical approach to rank intl players

111

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 27/04/2025

Update: Maluach and Bryant are in, Karaban will return to UConn. Have not heard/seen anything on Faye and Zikarsky

031

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 27/04/2025

NBA Draft Early Entry Deadline is tonight at 11:59 PM EST, with no official word on the following players: -Khaman Maluach -Alex Karaban -Carter Bryant -Mouhamed Faye -Rocco Zikarsky Seems like the South Sudanese visa restrictions may prevent Maluach from being able to enter

151

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Over the past couple of weeks, I have spent some time developing a few Python scripts to pull play-by-play data for NCAA Men's and Women's Basketball, for all divisions. I think they're at a point now where I can make them public and share with the community! Link below!

160

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 19/04/2025

NBA Draft testing szn is back, which means it's time for the return of Combine Scores! Find all of the results for the recent Portsmouth Invitational Tournament (PIT) below! Highest Combine Scores: 1) Jahmai Mashack (69.9) 2) Chase Hunter (67.8) 3) Moussa Cisse (65.5)

140

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

Final results for my NBA Draft Probability model for NCAA prospects. 45 players finished with a draft probability score above 50%, although a significant number have already announced that they are returning to school.

100

Reposted by Nick Kalinowski

rex potray @rexpotray.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

I don’t put all my hot takes online, and this is a trust me bro situation but, when Cluff was in the portal last year I was on the Make Cluff a Buff train, and thanks to @kalidrafts.bsky.social’s portal tool I feel vindicated. And Cluff got a massive bag to go to Purdue this year.

021

Reposted by Nick Kalinowski

Hoop Informatics @hoopinformatics.com · 01/04/2025

Big Z is in the portal. Would be fun to see the brothers Ivisic playing together for Illinois and what that double big lineup could look like. For all Portal inquiries be sure to check out the Transfer Portal App 🔗: nkal11.shinyapps.io/portal_datab... App Creator: @kalidrafts.bsky.social

063

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

Curious about what your favorite player is worth in the transfer portal? Well fear not, because NIL Value estimations have been added to my transfer portal webapp! (Note: men's only for now, until I find good data for women's) nkal11.shinyapps.io/portal_datab...

041

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

College basketball fans: now that the transfer portal window is open, I have created an interactive database for both men's and women's players! Track game performance, projections for production, and more! #Rstats MBB: nkal11.shinyapps.io/portal_datab... WBB: nkal11.shinyapps.io/transfer_mod...

091

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

Here's where my Bracketology Machine Learning model currently stands on the morning of Selection Sunday! -UNC in, Indiana out -Texas off the bubble thanks to the #TerryTurnaround

030

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

College coaches and fans: Transfer Portal season is upon us, and this year, I sought to create an all-in-one FREE database for anybody to track and compare players in the portal. This tool includes ranking, expected performance, game-by-game grades, skill grades, and best fits Link below! #rstats

181

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

Dylan Harper with one of the craziest moves I've seen all year, this reverse pivot was absolutely filthy

010

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

And here's the update to one of @samvecenie.bsky.social's favorite charts: how Cooper Flagg's game-by-game performance stacks up against other recent NCAA number 1 overall picks. Through 30 games, Flagg has remained among the upper echelon of even this esteemed group

110

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

An update on the Hollinger Game Score trends chart for various lottery prospects. Cooper Flagg overtook Dylan Harper for the most consistent high-level prospect around game 11 and never looked back; meanwhile Harper, Derik Queen, and Tre Johnson have all finished well following midseason slumps

271

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 02/03/2025

March update to the NBA Draft Probability model! Some changes around the middle tiers, but the model has remained consistent on who it likes/doesn't like as compared to historical data (Jeremiah Fears, Rasheer Fleming...)

120

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

An update to the 3-and-D players list: There are now exactly 20 players who have both a Jumpshooting Grade and a Defense Grade above 80! Here are all of them, sorted by Overall Grade, now led by freshman extraordinaire Cooper Flagg.

110

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Hello everyone, as promised, my Machine Learning Big Board is complete (for now) for both NCAA and Professional League prospects. Here are the top 10 in both categories for last year's class. I also wrote a comprehensive article detailing my process and coding techniques below

140

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

Hey everyone, this has been a highly requested feature, and now it's here! My College Basketball Grades webapp is now queryable! For example, here are the bigs with a Rebounding, Playmaking and Defense Grades all over 80! Link: nkal11.shinyapps.io/CBB_Grades/ #rstats

041

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

For those of you who were interested in my Machine Learning Big Board post and would like to view it in its entirety, the link for it is here: rpubs.com/njk5yr/MLBig...

rpubs.com

RPubs - Machine Learning Big Board - NCAA Prospects

030

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

Hi everyone, this has been a *very* long time in the making, but I have finally completed a Machine Learning Big Board model, so far just for NCAA prospects Players are ranked by their predicted average EPM over their rookie contract (years 1-4) Article soon!

151

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

Time for the February update to the NBA Draft Projection Model! The model currently predicts 33 players to have a greater than 50% chance of being selected in the upcoming NBA Draft, should they declare. Jeremiah Fears and Rasheer Fleming remain the two major outliers

120

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

How much have NBA contracts exploded over the past few years? John Wall's *supermax* deal in 2019: 4 yrs/171 mil is smaller than Desmond Bane (5/197) & Jamal Murray (4/207), and only slightly larger than OG Anunoby & Immanuel Quickley None of whom have ever made an ASG/All-NBA

120

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

Why did nobody tell me about fuzzy match before now, this rules

110

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 26/01/2025

How have the lottery level NBA draft prospects been trending throughout this season? I plotted the Hollinger Game Scores for 7 of the most frequently mocked players to find out. Trending up: VJ Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Egor Demin Trending down: Dylan Harper, Kasparas Jakucionis

110

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

It's been about a month, so I decided to update this plot and see if any players' shot distributions changed significantly once conference play started. The answer is: not noticeably, although mid-range rates have decreased across the board. Also added international players

120

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

3-and-D college basketball stars: There are exactly 20 players in all of CBB who have both a Jumpshooting Grade and a Defense Grade over 80. Potential to find undervalued pro role players among this list

041

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

19 year old Paul Mbiya measures in at 6'9" with an incredible 7'8" (+11) wingspan at the LNB YSG Combine The biggest difference between wingspan and height among active NBA players is THT with a +10.75. A 7'8" wingspan would be good for 6th among active players, longer than Dereck Lively & Bol Bol

000

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

Hello everyone, this is a long time in the making, but I have moved *all* of my code for my completed basketball Machine Learning projects over to my public GitHub. Feel free to check them out below: github.com/nkal22?tab=r...

github.com

nkal22 - Repositories

University of Virginia Class of 2022, UVA MSDS Class of 2023 - nkal22

070

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Which NBA Draft Prospects have the most two way upside? X-axis: Total Scoring Grade Y-axis: Defense Grade

020

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Today I wanted to look at how the overall scoring packages of notable NBA Draft prospects compare to one another. On this plot, the x-axis is the computed Inside Scoring Grade for each prospect (relative to position), while the y-axis is their computed Jumpshooting Grade

130

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

Following up on my previous chart, I wanted to see how Cooper Flagg's performances through 16 games stacked up against recent NCAA number 1 overall draft picks. The answer: he's right on schedule. Arguably ahead of it.

010

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

I computed @johnhollinger.bsky.social 's Game Score for every college player this season, where a score of 10 is considered average, and a 40 is "outstanding". Cooper Flagg's game against ND yesterday scored a 40.5, the highest of any freshman so far this season, and the 2rd highest overall

2143

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

For today's plot, I examined the free throw performances of various NCAA and International NBA Draft prospects. Length of bar = Free Throw Rate (FTR) Overall FT% is in parentheses #Rstats

040

Nick Kalinowski @kalidrafts.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

For today's plot, I decided to look at the shot diets of major NBA Draft prospects, and observe how they compare to their peers. Plots here show the percentage of prospects' points that come from three-point range, mid-range, and at the rim, respectively

020