iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

A "family fight," the Chair says. But both sides of the family share the same assumption: that supply-driven inflation fades on its own. In a networked economy, supply shocks compound before they fade. @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

000

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Fragility and resilience are the same property of global networks: how quickly you can substitute any chokepoint comes from integration.

011

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

Mundell dreamed of a single world currency. His own theory is the decisive argument against it. My new @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column on what the euro's first 25 years teach us about monetary fragmentation. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/s...

project-syndicate.org

Where Will Global Financial Fragmentation Lead?

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan sees the eurozone as a cautionary tale for anyone hoping for world monetary convergence.

000

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 05/07/2026

Happy 250th, America ! The founding idea was radical and positive-sum: liberty in politics and in markets, disciplined by rule of law and competition. Still the best growth model ever devised.

040

Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 30/06/2026

To close Day 2 of the 2nd Economic Policy Conference in Venice: a high-level policy panel on globalisation, fiscal populism & the future of the international monetary order. Chaired by Economic Policy Managing Editor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, hosted by @cesifo.org.

132

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Honored to give the keynote at the IMFER conference www.imf.org/en/news/semi... on: "The Economic Policies for a Globally Interdependent and Geopolitically Fragmented World." Global interdependence can be weaponized for economic leverage but can also bring resilience.

imf.org

Power, Markets, and Strategy in a Changing Global Order

The conference will focus on how trade, investment, finance, and regulation are deployed as instruments of power in a shifting global order. It seeks theoretical and empirical papers considering when ...

010

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Thank you Chris Wellisz for this great profile article summarizing my research for Finance and Development latest issue! www.imf.org/en/publicati...

132

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

What are the bond markets telling us? I at @projectsyndicate.bsky.social explain how markets are starting to price the new global inflationary environment of frequent supply shocks that monetary policy needs to navigate www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c...

project-syndicate.org

Central Banking in an Age of Global Supply Shocks

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan sees current conditions as fundamentally different from those in which modern inflation targeting was designed.

020

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Are emerging markets doing better under supply shocks? Our @voxeu.org and @brookings.edu 2023 paper w/Filiz Unsal explains how emerging markets can be resilient under global shocks. cepr.org/voxeu/column... Stronger macro policies and institutions can give economic insurance and leverage.

cepr.org

Global shocks are back: Emerging markets holding up

When global uncertainty increases, emerging markets are typically the most exposed. Historically, tighter US monetary policy has led to capital outflows, currency depreciation, and tightening financia...

020

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Our voxeu on the importance of global trade, production and finance networks for the macro impact of large tariffs: higher input prices and supply shortages, constrained demand, triggering a costly inflation process: cepr.org/voxeu/column...

cepr.org

Macroeconomics of tariffs with global production and finance networks

Tariffs have returned as instruments of economic and geopolitical policy, but their short- and medium-run macroeconomic effects are still not fully understood. This column introduces a new framework t...

010

Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 18/05/2026

@kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Can Soylu, & Muhammed A. Yıldırım show that #tariffs act simultaneously as demand and supply shocks, and that even transitory tariffs can generate persistent inflation, large output losses, and global spillovers absent retaliation. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Left panel: bilateral trade shares from the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Tables for 2022. Right panel: model-implied changes in bilateral trade flows 12 quarters after the US tariff measures implemented through March 2026. Arrow widths scale with the trade share (left) and with the absolute value of the change (right). Thin red lines indicate predicted flows falling relative to the pre-tariff baseline; thick red lines indicate flows rising relative to it.

Tariffs have returned as instruments of economic and geopolitical policy, but their short- and medium-run macroeconomic effects are still not fully understood. This column introduces a new framework that integrates global production networks into a standard open-economy model. It shows that tariffs act simultaneously as demand and supply shocks, and their macroeconomic effects depend critically on production networks, price rigidities, and monetary policy responses at home and abroad. Once these features are incorporated, even transitory tariffs can generate persistent inflation, large output losses, and global spillovers absent retaliation.

0104

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

Great conference by BancoDeEspana. In my panel, with Silvana Tenreyro and Maurice Obstfeld, we have discussed trade, exchange rates and monetary policy. Central banks will have a difficult time to hit their targets in the inflationary world of supply shocks: www.bde.es/wbe/en/notic...

bde.es

I LatAm Economic Forum

020

Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 21/04/2026

Many emerging markets avoided widespread financial crises over the 2022-2023 tightening cycle due to improved monetary policy credibility and reduced foreign-exchange vulnerabilities, show @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social & Filiz Unsal. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The measure of policy credibility, on a scale of zero to one, is based on the monetary policy frameworks index (IAPOC index) from Unsal et al. (2022). The graph shows the average and median policy credibility in advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets (EMs) from 2007 to 2021.

When global uncertainty increases, emerging markets are typically the most exposed. Historically, tighter US monetary policy has led to capital outflows, currency depreciation, and tightening financial conditions in emerging markets. This column examines how domestic vulnerabilities shape the transmission of US monetary tightening across countries. It shows that many emerging markets avoided widespread financial crises over the 2022-2023 tightening cycle due to improved monetary policy credibility and reduced foreign-exchange vulnerabilities. In a world of rising uncertainty, stronger domestic institutions are among the most effective forms of economic insurance.

055

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Videos and podcasts from 1st EP: PEGI conference, December 2025, as Russia’s invasion approached its fourth year. "What is next for Ukraine?" economic-policy.org/video-podcas... how firms and cities adopt, how restructuring war-time debt is essential, and how governments use financial repression.

economic-policy.org

Video and Podcasts Archive - Economic Policy

010

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Global economy characterized by deep trade, finance, and production interdependencies, co-mingled with spatial chokeholds turning geopolitical shocks into macroeconomic ones. Paradoxically, this interdependence has also been a source of resilience: www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/iran...

project-syndicate.org

Interdependence Bites Back

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan warns that America’s current policies are turning manageable problems into full-blown macroeconomic crises.

010

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

My conversation with John Friedman of Watson School youtube.com/watch?v=z_tT... Every country has a chokehold on someone else's economy. Global interdependence works like Cold War-era doctrine of MAD. Identification of chokepoints requires understanding of global interdependence through networks.

youtube.com

How US economic policy is interacting with the global economy today

YouTube video by Watson School of International and Public Affairs

001

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

The economic-case for dethroning the dollar is weak, but political-case for weakening the currency in slow-mo is strong. Start protectionism, blame globalization for domestic problems and end with inflation-EM-101. I discuss @projectsyndicate.bsky.social: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...

project-syndicate.org

Conflicting Policies, Confused Investors, and the Weak Dollar

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan traces the damaging effects of US economic policy on the world’s dominant reserve currency.

021

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

Supreme court decision shows the strength of the US institutions. I hope markets and policy makers also realize the economic damage that tariffs are causing to American businesses, commercial middle class, and the dollar, as I explain in my February @projectsyndicate.bsky.social

project-syndicate.org

Conflicting Policies, Confused Investors, and the Weak Dollar

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan traces the damaging effects of US economic policy on the world’s dominant reserve currency.

011

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

Tariffs are not a viable tool for weaponizing global interdependence. There is still no manufacturing renaissance as tariffs raise business costs, reduce productivity, with affordability crisis. Tariff threats are contributing to dollar depreciation: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...

project-syndicate.org

Tariffs Are More Destructive Than You Think

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explains why the costs extend far beyond what standard economic models would predict.

010

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

Global production and financial networks feed rising economic and geopolitical risks back into the US economy, driving up inflation, weakening asset prices and the dollar. What can EMs do? Orthodoxy-plus is the only option for them: www.project-syndicate.org/magazine/us-...

project-syndicate.org

The Age of Stagflation?

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan warns that the US is generating acute economic risks, and advises emerging economies on how to respond.

000

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

I am honored and deeply excited to serve as the next director of Rhodes Center for International Economics and Finance. At a time when global markets, policy frameworks, and geopolitical forces are rapidly reshaping one another, the center’s mission has never been more important.

080

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

Join us! We are now accepting applications for the Global Linkages Lab, www.globallinkages.org here are the details :: apply.interfolio.com/176873

apply.interfolio.com

Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio

010

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 13/10/2025

Super news for @brownuresearch.bsky.social and all. Let us all appreciate growth-openness link. Aghion at the news conference said he is worried about the protectionist wave and warned against obstacles for growth such as deglobalization and tariffs! He said openness is a driver of economic growth!

0103

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

It was an honor to do a fire side chat with Raghuram Rajan at this amazing conference in Chicago: chicagobooth.edu/research/fam... Finance for small firms and private sector development is more important than ever in a world where big actors like the US chose isolation over integration.

chicagobooth.edu

Schedule

Teaser Data: Lorem Ipsum is simply dummy text of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry's standard dummy text ever since the 1500s

020

Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

NBER @nber.org · 26/09/2025

Administrative data on international portfolios shows that issuers' supply elasticity depends on how investors' demand elasticity changes with arbitrage deviations, from Bertaut, Faia, @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Marchesini, Paetzold, and Schmitz www.nber.org/papers/w34275

031

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

Thrilled to talk about emerging market monetary policies and financial stability at this great conference organized by FLAR and hosted by Central Bank of Colombia: eventos.flar.net/annual-econo...

eventos.flar.net

Annual Economic Studies Conference 2025 – Eventos FLAR

010

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

It was a pleasure to join the world trade dialogue! We need to navigate global uncertainty created by US policies to de-globalize and eliminate knowledge-based economies by diminishing universities. Global integration led to unprecented progress, lifting billions up. studiozx.de/events/world...

010

Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 26/05/2025

Credit support policies in the form of credit guarantees and central bank credit lines can help firms substitute in the event of evaporating external credit for domestic borrowing. Miguel Acosta-Henao, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Graph of the sudden stop-COVID shock in Chile: mean firm-level UIP deviation.

Sudden stops in international capital flows pose significant challenges for policymakers, especially in emerging markets. These abrupt halts in cross-border flows disrupt firms' access to external financing, leading to liquidity shortages that can severely undermine economic activity and growth. This column examines how credit support policies in the form of credit guarantees and central bank credit lines can help firms substitute the evaporating external credit for domestic borrowing, using the case of Chile during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis provides strong evidence that the interventions were effective in mitigating the impact of the shock.

053

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Thanks to all the presenters, discussants, organizers and our host CBRT for making our @nber.org conference an amazing event! Gita Gopinath's keynote posted here: imf.org/en/News/Arti... Videos of all the papers and the policy panel will be posted soon, here: nber.org/conferences/...

imf.org

Steering through the Fog: The Art and Science of Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets

The economic effects of these developments are expected to be sizeable. Our World Economic Outlook ‘reference scenario’ projects that tariffs will reduce both global and emerging market (EM) output gr...

010

Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 28/04/2025

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20168 Global Networks, Monetary Policy, #Trade @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Can Soylu, Muhammed A. Yıldırım Access the paper and accompanying slides free! cepr.org/publications... #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_ITRE #CEPR_MEF #CEPR_MG

061

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Work with us at globallinkages.org Be part of our colloborative hub, take part in research, seeking answers to global challenges, promoting evidence based international economic policies for global welfare. Our post-doc and pre-doc positions: apply.interfolio.com/165825 apply.interfolio.com/166437

globallinkages.org

Global Linkages Lab

Global Linkages Lab at Brown University

010

Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

NBER @nber.org · 18/04/2025

Tariffs can be stagflationary in a global general equilibrium setting. The net impact of tariffs on inflation, employment, and the US dollar depends on the policy response of all countries in the trade war, from @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Soylu, and Yildirim www.nber.org/papers/w33686

0183

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

We are excited to announce that GLL is now live! www.globallinkages.org GLL explores globalization—and the costs of trying to undo it. We undertake, fund cutting-edge research, support collaboration, deliver insights to guide evidence based policy making for inclusive global growth and welfare.

globallinkages.org

Global Linkages Lab

Global Linkages Lab at Brown University

041

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

In a new paper, we build a new NKOE global network model and decompose the impact of tariffs on inflation, output, and exchange rate into channels of demand, supply, monetary policy, sectoral nominal rigidities, inflation-exchange rate expectations and global I-O linkages channels.

041

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

Tariff-Threats that are later reversed and not implemented are self-defeating, leading to a 4.1\% appreciation of the USD, 0.6pp deflation, a 0.7 pp decline in output. US. Dollar appreciates less or can even depreciate under tariff threats, and increased global uncertainty due to these threats.

021

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

Liberation Day Tariffs+Retalation can lead to a decline of ↓ 1.6 pp in US output, an increase of ↑ 0.8 pp in US inflation and also a USD NEER Appreciation of 4.8%.

021

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

Our new paper builds a NKOE model to study interaction of monetary policy and trade frictions. Tariffs act as demand and supply shocks and lead to endogenous changes in global networks. Their impact depends on monetary policy's endogenous response both in tariff-putting and tariff-imposed countries.

031

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? A key question given increased U.S. policy uncertainty. My op-ed @FT explains : www.ft.com/content/600d...

ft.com

Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium

Technocrats can contain short-term financial panic but only democratic integrity will sustain investor confidence

020

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · 30/03/2025

Thank you so much WorldBank and IFC for the launch of this great book and fantastic panel. How to finance firm growth is one of the key issues of our time especially for countries who need this most and suffer from high policy risk, here is the video: www.ifc.org/en/events/20...

ifc.org

Capital Markets: Financing Firm Growth

Join and explore future World Bank Group collaboration on capital markets development. Delve into the findings of the new book Financing Firm Growth: The Role of Capital Markets in Low- and Middle-Inc...

030

Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

NBER @nber.org · 26/03/2025

Featured in the latest Digest: "Government Support and Corporate Debt Restructuring" www.nber.org/digest/202503/governme…

062

Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Stand Up for Science rallies will be held in DC and state capitals on March 7th. Share with friends. Sign-up here to get email updates with details: www.eventbrite.com/e/stand-up-f...

eventbrite.com

STAND UP FOR SCIENCE 2025 - DC and NATIONWIDE

Stand up for science with us on March 7th, 2025, because science is for everyone! More info at www.standupforscience2025.org

14980082913