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Justin Wolfers

@justinwolfers.bsky.social
171.8K followers 373 following 3.2K posts

Econ professor at Michigan ● Senior fellow, Brookings ● Intro econ textbook author ● Chief economist & Deputy platypus newsletter.platypuseconomics.com ● Find me: linktr.ee/justinwolfers

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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 17h
Prices are up 3.7% over the past year. Wages are up 3%. If you stayed in the same job, you probably fell even further behind. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 19h
I just paid $7.26 for a cappuccino at the Detroit airport. I remember that being $3.50.⁣ ⁣ But when? Recently? Maybe 2015? ⁣ ⁣ This "telescoping" is a real reason why inflation feels even worse right now. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
The $7.26 Cappuccino Problem
Inflation is 3.7%. Why does it feel like it doubled overnight?
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 22h
One hot inflation report and the market's odds of a pre-election rate hike doubled, from 22% to 44%. Odds are back down to 28%, but nobody knows what the Fed will do on Oct 28. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 16/10/2026
Odd-looking trades happen all the time in markets that big. What's hard to explain is telling investigators to stop looking. youtu.be/puXEsuVyIQM
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Here's the Fed's dilemma after the today's inflation numbers⁣ ⁣ Raise interest rates, and risk slowing the economy.⁣ ⁣ Don't raise them, and risk letting inflation become entrenched.⁣ ⁣ It's a coin toss what'll happen. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
The Inflation Surprise Nobody Wanted
Prices rose faster than forecasters expected, paychecks fell further behind, and the Fed’s next move went from unlikely to a toss-up.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Real wages are falling, and have been falling for months.
Line chart titled "Inflation adjusted hourly wages are falling" shows real hourly wages for private sector workers in January 2025 dollars from March 2024 to September 2026. Real wages climbed from $35.38 in March 2024 to a peak of $36.30 in November 2025, then fell to $35.86 by September 2026, eroding most of the inflation-adjusted gains workers had achieved over the prior 20 months.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Highway taxes aren't indexed to inflation, which is just bad policy design. Add that with new tax breaks and I might start wondering how we'll pay for our infrastructure repairs. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Cutting the diesel tax doesn't make the cost disappear. Who's gonna pay for road repairs? newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
An efficient market isn't necessarily a fair market. I would prefer that people remember the difference. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
The Kim Kardashian Problem in Economics
Markets would give Kim K the last slice of pie, and calling that “efficient” is an ethical judgement.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Open a Fed report or the financial pages, and you'll see Mike Woodford's fingerprints all over it. He deserves this Nobel Prize.⁣ newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Bob Hall and Mike Woodford fundamentally changed how economists understand the economy. They showed us how economics data falls short when we don't consider the people generating those data. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
The Most Successful Failure in Economics Just Won a Nobel Prize
Bob Hall and Mike Woodford rebuilt macroeconomics around a simple idea—to understand the sum of us, you need to understand each of us.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
The video tells the full story, but for now, let me just say that this is an absolutely splendid prize for two fantastic economists who both made important research contributions, while also being insightful policy wonks, thoughtful mentors, fearless intellectual leaders, and damn good blokes.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
I woke up early this morning — though perhaps not as early as Bob Hall & Mike Woodford—so that I could explain to the historical context of their Nobel, the work that won the prize, their contributions to the world, and who they are. www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpT6... (fixed link)
youtube.com
Bob Hall and Mike Woodford Win the 2026 Economics Nobel
YouTube video by Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
The video tells the full story, but for now, let me just say that this is an absolutely splendid prize for two fantastic economists who both made important research contributions, while also being insightful policy wonks, thoughtful mentors, fearless intellectual leaders, and damn good blokes.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
I woke up early this morning — though perhaps not as early as Bob Hall & Mike Woodford—so that I could explain to the historical context of their Nobel, the work that won the prize, their contributions to the world, and who they are. www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpT6...
youtube.com
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Wow, how did I miss that one?
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
The best leaders have been forced to pick the best of 2 evils. That's when their priorities show.⁣ ⁣ Who pays the price? When? And how much of the damage can be undone? newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Come work with me! Platypus Economics is growing, and we need a producer. Digital media skills a must. Love of economics a huge bonus. Full job description here: platypuseconomics.com/hiring Apply, or send this to your most amazing friends.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
It seems like every oil announcement we're getting these days is a big nothing burger. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
No dramas when owners and workers both win when the pie grows, but that’s less and less the case. tinyurl.com/profisin10-09
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Higher oil prices move money from drivers to shareholders. Oil companies are extracting roughly the same amount of oil, but the price per barrel keeps going up.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
This war is a bit like poker, and if everyone had their cards face up, there'd be a lot less drama. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
The Economic Theory of War Is: Don’t
If you’re already in one, figure out where it ends and jump there.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
If a fight is going to end in an apology, just skip to the apology.⁣ ⁣ That's called efficient bargaining. youtu.be/KhGjTdS41eg
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Reposted by Justin Wolfers
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Platypus economics is growing, so we're hiring. #JOLTS I'm looking for whip smart digital media folks to help me. Extra points for knowing or loving economics. Full job description is here: platypuseconomics.com/hiring Apply! Or forward this to your most amazing friends.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Platypus economics is growing, so we're hiring. #JOLTS I'm looking for whip smart digital media folks to help me. Extra points for knowing or loving economics. Full job description is here: platypuseconomics.com/hiring Apply! Or forward this to your most amazing friends.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
When a politician promises to make something cheaper, ask "the second question". Where's the extra supply coming from? ⁣ ⁣ This diesel executive order doesn't make any sense newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Trump's plan to lower diesel prices:⁣ ⁣ Take diesel from farmers.⁣ ⁣ Give it to truckers.⁣ ⁣ Make farmers pay more.⁣ ⁣ Declare victory in the midterms newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
America Doesn’t Have a Shortage of Red Dye
The president’s new diesel order knocks down the wall between two pools of fuel, but does nothing to refill it.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
My favorite part of Trump's new diesel order?⁣ ⁣ It says truckers can use red-dye diesel that's earmarked for farmers, then it tells the government to make sure farmers have enough diesel.⁣ ⁣ Good luck with that. You can't make this stuff up. youtu.be/AqFtFkdhUo0
youtu.be
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Until a few days ago, most people had never heard of red-dyed diesel. It's tax-free diesel for farm and off-road equipment. ⁣ ⁣ Trump said truckers can use it now and defer their standard tax bill until 2027 (after the midterms 🤔) www.youtube.com/watch?v=-23NcxlJWW8
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The optimal interest rate right now is somewhere between 3.5% and 4.5%. Warsh has us right there⁣ ⁣ That's good enough. When you're already close to the top, small adjustments don't matter.⁣ ⁣ Trump's fantasy of 1% is way off target. tinyurl.com/interest09-26
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The US has lost 21,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office. But why is bringing them back the goal? Why are we trying to push people into lower paying work? newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
Manufacturing is What Rich People Think Poor People Want To Do
What’s really pushing up bond yields, and what has the trade war actually delivered?
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The US has lost 21,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office. But why is bringing them back the goal? Why are we trying to push people into lower paying work? newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
Manufacturing is What Rich People Think Poor People Want To Do
What’s really pushing up bond yields, and what has the trade war actually delivered?
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Reposted by Justin Wolfers
DJ Black @djblack21.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Platypus Economics Justin Wolfers says the economy feels precarious not just because of today’s numbers, but because of deeper damage to institutions, trust, and the rule of law under Trump. He points to worries about election interference, trade wars, the war in Iran... youtu.be/uaPJO76DAgo
youtu.be
Trumps Attacking Elections Will RUIN The Economy w/ Justin Wolfers
YouTube video by Fast Politics w/ Molly Jong-Fast
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The economy baked a bigger pie then handed everyone a smaller fork. youtu.be/Cc21Z2WeWdU
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Reposted by Justin Wolfers
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Diesel futures fell after Trump announced a “massive” European oil release.⁣ ⁣ Then traders read the actual G7 statement, and the entire price move vanished.⁣ ⁣ Turns out the massive release was mostly a PR stunt. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
An Agreement to Agree About an Earlier Agreement
Read the G7 communiqué closely and the "new" 100 million barrels turns out to be leftovers from March.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Diesel futures fell after Trump announced a “massive” European oil release.⁣ ⁣ Then traders read the actual G7 statement, and the entire price move vanished.⁣ ⁣ Turns out the massive release was mostly a PR stunt. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
An Agreement to Agree About an Earlier Agreement
Read the G7 communiqué closely and the "new" 100 million barrels turns out to be leftovers from March.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The G7's new 100M barrel release? This is PR , not an energy policy. The real issue is the Strait of Hormuz. youtu.be/Cc21Z2WeWdU
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The G7 just agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil, in exchange for the US agreeing not to ban diesel exports.⁣ ⁣ That's not a solution. That's political leaders agreeing to look like they're solving a made-up crisis. youtu.be/I8waaPcvpQA
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Health care went from 8% of jobs in the 1990s to nearly 16% today. That's a sign we got richer.⁣ ⁣ Once you've got a house, a car, a dishwasher, the next dollar doesn't go to a second oven. It goes to more years of life. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
A friendly reminder that the stuff dominating political discourse isn't always what actually moves the economy newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The August 2026 jobs number was just revised down from +162,000 to +133,000, and this is actually the process working normally. ⁣ ⁣ If every business owner responded to the BLS on time, I'd have even more concern for our economy youtu.be/XttGlE71UJs
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Sometimes Washington is debating one economy while Americans are living in another.⁣ ⁣ We keep hearing about manufacturing and AI, but almost all recent job growth has been in healthcare youtu.be/XttGlE71UJs
youtu.be
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
One of the most important things I learned from Gary Becker was a small number of economic principles explain more of life than you'd think. That's why I love this field. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
At the risk of doing social media wrong, lemme suggest folks engage with what I wrote, rather than the 280 character summary. There's plenty to disagree with in the actual piece I wrote, but it's of a different nature than some of the reactions I'm seeing to this thread.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
You're actually someone I think of as someone I learned from by getting to know you, and (mataphorically) having lunch with. Our bubbles would lead me to reject you, but by chatting, I know you're interesting, smart, and have a big heart. And that helped me hear your insights.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
This post is generating a lot of heated reactions. Lemme edit and say that figuring out our differences is "the productive part," rather than "the fun part."
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The best cure for ideological bias is find someone on the other side and go to lunch with them.⁣ ⁣ Sometimes we disagree about facts. Sometimes we disagree about values. Figuring out which is which is fun part. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
It’s time to mourn the death of cheap money. Let’s not be sad it’s over. Let’s be glad it happened 🥲 newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/whos-afrai...
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
Who’s Afraid of High Interest Rates?
Is the Fed raising rates too much? It matters less than you think.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
In 1989 CEOs made 60x the average worker. Today it's 325x. I guess the corporate ladder is getting taller. With @svaneksmith.bsky.social newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Wage growth is now running below 3%, the slowest in years. So many families are feeling this right now. youtu.be/mlZg8gQAUTk
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