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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Wow - what a month September 2026 was across New Mexico. A hot/dry summer (for many areas) gave way to what was likely a historically wet month across nearly the entire state. The latest US Drought Monitor (through September 29) erases all D4 (Exceptional Drought). #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

0.38" @ Rancho Viejo, just S of Santa Fe - ~0.20" fell after 12am. Heaviest rain/t-storms developed just E of the most extensive cloud cover = area of greatest heating & moisture = greatest instability coupled w/ synoptic lift. 🙏 to @wxfront.bsky.social for 24 MRMS QPE graphics. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

View of the #FrijolesFire spawning a thunderstorm. We did observe a lightning strike. #nmwx #nmfire #pyrocu

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Rancho Viejo received 0.48” of rainfall with the thunderstorm that moved through Santa Fe this afternoon.😀 #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

🌧️ My quick take on the 2026 North American Monsoon (NAM) season: a tale of two halves - and they could be very different. A thread🧵 #nmwx #azwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

Angel Fire, New Mexico saw a 62°F diurnal temperature swing today...wow! 🏜️ #NMwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Winter storm is on track for NM Fri-Sun. Winter driving conditions develop across the mtns Fri afternoon/evening, into N half of NM Fri night, & then C & S NM Sat. Improvement from N to S late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Greatest impacts along/E of C mtn chain #NMwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

Confidence continues to grow for the potential of a significant winter storm across portions of NM Friday thru the weekend. A cutoff low, subtropical moisture, & jet stream merge w/ polar jet stream/wave pattern. Backdoor cold front moves into E NM by Fri & C NM Sat. #NMwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

How does the snowpack or snow water equivalent (SWE) across the western U.S. & NM look? Overall well below average across NM & the Rio Grande/Pecos basins. However, Santa Fe SNOTEL is at 84% of median (5.2” SWE), but Taos Powderhorn is only at 51% of median (4.4” SWE) #NMwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Another extended period of quiet wx for 7-10+ days for NM. Signals hinting more “active” wx may develop for the Desert SW near/after Jan 22-24🤞as PACNW ridge possibly retrogrades towards the Gulf of AK around/after the 18-19th - of course confidence is low at that lead time #NMwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

Trace of slop Thu Morning. 2.25" of ❄️ accumulation 📏 at 7am Fri - Rancho Viejo (just S of Santa Fe). #NMwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

A storm will move thru the Desert SW Wed/Thu & exit NM Fri afternoon/evening. The most widespread light valley rain & high mtn snow impacts western NM Thu morning w/ little to no precip east of the central mtn chain through Fri. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

1.75" of total snow accumulation at Rancho Viejo - just south of Santa Fe - 8am measurement. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

A trough is digging SE thru the SW & ejects E Thu. A short duration, but fairly potent winter storm brings snow to NM thru tonight, w/ any lingering light snow ending midday Thursday. 6-12+” across the N mtns, 1-4+” RGV Santa Fe on N, & Trace-1” ABQ area. #nmwx #skinewmexico

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

Almost a classic New Mexico severe clear. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Received 0.44" of rain yesterday at Rancho Viejo - just S of Santa Fe. Also attached are current MRMS precipitation estimates for NM & precipitation reports across the SW. Looks like Red River picked up 9", 6-7" at Taos, 6" at Ski Santa Fe, & 3" at Pajarito.⛷️ #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Next short wave moving NNE brings fairly widespread precip thru late morning across N NM. Likely a short lull early afternoon w/ increasing shower/iso. storms afternoon/early evening.❄️ levels fall to 7000' late afternoon. Chance for some iso. thundersnow in the N mtns. #NMwx 😁

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

A series of cutoff low pressure systems will continue to impact the Desert SW & NM through this weekend: 1st system ejecting NE though NM on Thu; 2nd on Sun. Each bringing beneficial statewide valley rain and mtn snow. Drier weather likely early next work-week. #NMwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

Overall - an “active” weather pattern looks to be shaping up for the second half of November across the SW. Colder and wetter weather will bring advantageous conditions to most of NM ski resorts - natural snow at times with largely more favorable conditions for snowmaking. #NMwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 11/10/2025

Anomalously moist airmass across the SW & widespread showers have developed across W & N NM. These showers and a few t-storms increase & track through the Rio Grande Valley mid to late afternoon. Primary hazards heavy downpours, brief wind gusts to 40 mph, & some lightning. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

Rancho Viejo received another 0.31” of rainfall yesterday evening. 😀 #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

Wet wx pattern continues across the SW & NM into early next week, especially along & W of the central Mtn chain. A persistent W Coast trough & ridge in the S Plains will draw tropical moisture & tropical cyclone remnants into the SW. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Picked up 0.2" at Rancho Viejo early this morning - 2 downpours near 1:30am & 4:45am. Lots of ⚡️w/ training storms just S in the middle of the night. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

Decent storm system w/ at least some precip across much of NM this weekend; heaviest totals W/SW of ABQ & across the E Mtns. One more round of showers/storms today, coverage not quite as numerous as this weekend - slight chance for heavy rain focuses near the Sacramento Mtns. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

Picked up another 0.14” yesterday at Rancho Viejo; storm total 0.70” so far over the weekend. Beautiful to see the higher peaks of the Sangra de Cristos dusted with snow over the weekend. I got my pass! ⛷️#nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

A cutoff low over the SW U.S. will meander E-ENE today. This will allow for scattered to numerous showers/storms across NM; a few storms could be strong across C NM this afternoon/early evening. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

Rancho Viejo just S of Santa Fe received 0.54” of rain in the last 24 hours. According to my WS-500 a good approximation puts 0.2” falling before 12am & 0.34” after. Came in 3 waves: 0.14” w/ steady light rain around 12pm Sat, and w/ thunderstorms around 12am & 5am. 🤓 #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

Fall like wx pattern: an upper level trough is pushing into the Great Basin, moves into the Rockies Sat, & ejects NE into the High Plains early Sunday. This will allow for showers/storms to impact NW & W NM Thu/Fri, then the focus shifts to C & E NM Fri night/Sat. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 01/09/2025

A few showers and rumbles of thunder moving into/thru the Santa Fe basin. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 31/08/2025

NWS severe warned storm S-SE of Las Vegas, NM this evening producing decent lightning and some pileus clouds. Attached are GR2Analyst images with NOAA/NWS NEXRAD data from KFDX - Cannon AFB ~10:20pm. Nice updraft & 55-60+ DBZ thru -20C. Decent mid altitude convergence too. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

Quick water vapor analysis depicts disturbances departing NE NM, one in N AZ, & another in far E AZ. Extensive cloud cover & some showers are currently across C & NE NM. Dew points across NM are in the 50s/lower 60s & monsoonal moisture remains in place. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

How did Tue rainfall look across #NM? Overall - forecasts paned out well as expected w/ most rain showers/storms across the W 2/3rds & N NM. Heavy thunderstorms developed S of Santa Fe late Tue afternoon then moved NNE - leading to a localized area of heavy rainfall. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 26/08/2025

Some impressively low based/shallow cumulus as of 10am MT. I’m accustomed to seeing cloud bases at 15,000 to 18,000 feet. 😀#nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 26/08/2025

WV channel depicts a large ridge across W U.S. & deep trough E of the Rockies. Monsoonal moisture is throughout much of the W U.S. Locally to NM dew-points are in the 50s/lower 60s. Mostly clear skies across W & S NM allow daytime heating to destabilize the atmosphere today #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

Mostly clears skies across a good chunk of #NM early this morning - outside EC NM as a disturbance is drifting there. Dews in the upper 40s/lower 50s, with moisture entrenched across the SW. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

How did Sunday's rain showers/storms play out across #NM? The heaviest rainfall occurred over northern mtns as expected with localized rainfall estimates reaching/exceeding 2". #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 24/08/2025

The low cloud deck this morning around Santa Fe broke up and briefly evolved into transverse rolls this morning. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 24/08/2025

Rancho Viejo- just south of Santa Fe received 0.11” of rainfall late last night. Another beautiful morning with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s early on. Clear skies over the Sangre de Cristo Mtns 😬 and low clouds burning off to the west and northwest. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 24/08/2025

Water vapor (WV) analysis across CONUS - ridging through the Great Basin/PACN & a long wave trough across the E U.S. In #NM high pressure & monsoon plume overhead 3/ dewpoints greatest over the N & E. WV shows a disturbances rotation around the high one in NW, WC, & SE #NM. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 21/08/2025

Another beautiful morning in Santa Fe. There appears to be a little smoke along with some upslope clouds over the higher peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains that enjoy WNW-NW 700mb flow. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

WV analysis depicts trough in the PACNW; SW high with ridging pushing into the N Plains; and a trough near Lake Superior. Locally to #NM - Dew points are in the 30s across W NM & 50 across E NM. There disturbances evident in NW & EC NM & marginal atmospheric moisture. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 05/08/2025

WV channel across CONUS depicts a trough in the PACNW; flattened SW High; ridge into the plains; troughing through the Midwest/ArkLaTex regions. Locally to #NM - largely dry airmass in place with a moisture gradient across E NM, with an absent monsoonal moisture signature. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Got some lightning photos from the storm moving south through portions of the Santa Fe Basin this evening. #NMwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

A quick WV analysis of W U.S. feathers a trough in the W Great Basin, jet pushing into S CA & AZ, & a rich monsoonal moisture plume from NW MX, through NM, & into SE CO. Locally to #NM - there are 2 remnant MCV in SW & NE NM and frontal system surging south through E CO. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

Additionally, watch for primary thunderstorm development/heavy rainfall rates to potentially be maximum near and just away from the more extensive cloud cover across central NM, where higher levels of moisture will likely overlap with a little more instability later this afternoon. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

0.38” of rain for 7/29/2025 at Rancho Viejo - just south of Santa Fe. All accumulation occurred before 12am. #nmwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

Plenty of moisture across much of NM & a remnant mesoscale convective vorticity (MCV) is apparent in SC NM. This MCV will provide lift near/just ahead of itself as it drifts N-NNE today. Storm motion will also be fairly slow. However, there are limiting factors today. #NMwx

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 22/07/2025

Despite ensembles consistently depicting a fairly favorable H5 ridge location going into early Aug (displaced just E of NM) there is potential for a Saharan dust plume currently in the Atlantic to move E, cross the Gulf, & bring a "drier" airmass into Mexico or NM by early Aug. #NMWX

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Justin Connolly @justincwx.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

Received another quick 0.47” yesterday afternoon at my place in Rancho Viejo- just south of Santa Fe. #nmwx

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