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Jonathan M. Winer

@jonathanmwiner.bsky.social
3K followers 3.2K following 213 posts

Former Senate counsel, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, U.S. Special Envoy, now Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow, Middle East Institute. Write about law & politics, national & global security, Middle East, financial crime, cross-border issues.

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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 6h
washingtonspectator.org/the-plan-to-...
washingtonspectator.org
The Plan to Treat Election-Related Protests as Terrorism | Washington Spectator
Ahead of midterms, the Trump administration built a counterterrorism system targeting groups, organizers, and networks supporting election abuse protests.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
jwiner.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
jwiner.substack.com
Venezuela and the New Spoils System
Access to Oil Starts with Access to Trump
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
The Roberts SCOTUS is even more partisan than it is ideological. And when it is most partisan the Republican majority doesn't even bother signing its opinions.
nytimes.com
Supreme Court Sides With Republicans in TV Ad Fight
Republican groups had asked the court to clear the way for political parties to pay the same low-cost ad rates as candidates, a move that could undercut a Democratic advantage in the midterms.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
youtu.be/FRCKG0zGb54 This is an important new video in which a former senior White House official lays out the plotting that is casting a shadow on our collective national future. Watch & be forewarned. Their success is not inevitable. But we and the country will need to get through this together.
youtu.be
Power at Any Cost: How Trump Might Sabotage the Midterms and How You Can Fight Back
YouTube video by Freedom Watch Media
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This was a profoundly unethical & dangerous "experiment." Those behind it want to stay anonymous. Investigate domain registration & all online records and expose whomever did this. Fake Polls in Wisconsin and California Were Part of a ‘Social Experiment’ www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/p...
nytimes.com
Polling Firm Released Fake Data in Hong and Bass Races as a ‘Social Experiment’
Median Strategies revealed that recent polls from the firm were intended to expose how easily false results can be spread.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
washingtonspectator.org/trumps-two-o... what is Trump doing with #Venezuela oil - and the mysteries of #Freedom Fuel
washingtonspectator.org
Trump’s Two Oil Mysteries: Freedom Fuel and Venezuelan Crude | Washington Spectator
Gasoline prices are rising again, adding to voter concerns about the cost of living. Yet in the Philadelphia region, a new company, Freedom Fuel, is suddenly selling gasoline substantially below its…
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
steadystate1.substack.com/p/when-intel...
steadystate1.substack.com
When Intelligence Becomes an Election Weapon
How raw intelligence, stitched together and without normal analytical safeguards, was presented as the foundation for an unprecedented claim of presidential authority over American elections.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
First the East Wing, then the 2026 elections. washingtonspectator.org/the-wrecking...
washingtonspectator.org
The Wrecking Ball Comes For the Midterms | Washington Spectator
Last October, I wrote in The Washington Spectator that the Trump administration was constructing an integrated system to constrain voting and criminalize political opposition. Claims of election fraud...
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
This piece from Nov 2024 got it exactly right. Predicted both what Trump would do and who can counter him and how. Essential re-reading ahead of this fall.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Erasing the death of soldiers because Trump wants a smaller number. Absolutely Orwellian. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/23/u...
nytimes.com
Number of U.S. Troop Deaths in Iran War Appears Lower on Pentagon Website
Three military officials and a Pentagon spokesman gave conflicting explanations for why the number of Americans killed in the Iran war had changed.
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Reposted by Jonathan M. Winer
Reuters Legal @legal.reuters.com · 17/07/2026
The U.S. tax agency’s top attorney was forced from his role in recent days after refusing White House demands to participate in tax audits, according to three people familiar with the matter.
reut.rs
Top US tax lawyer forced out after White House clash over tax audits
The U.S. ​tax agency’s top attorney was forced from his role in recent days after refusing White House demands ‌to participate in tax audits, according to three people familiar with the matter.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
The #NYT appears to have simply accepted what its sources told them without getting any factual evidence on the actual mechanics of who is getting what from Venezuelan oil revenues. For starters, how's the $$ being held? How Marco Rubio Is Running Venezuela From Afar www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/u...
nytimes.com
How Marco Rubio Is Running Venezuela From Afar
The secretary of state effectively controls Venezuela’s finances, the distribution of its natural resources and its government. His grip on the country is a vivid manifestation of American power in th...
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Important piece from Norm Ornstein offering real solutions to the radical constitutional revisionism of the Roberts court. open.substack.com/pub/contrari...
open.substack.com
Reining in a Rogue Supreme Court
It is up to Congress to use its legitimate Article I powers to do so.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
www.newsweek.com/if-save-amer...
newsweek.com
If 'Save America' dies, how could Trump still kill elections? | Opinion
Trump is using enormous political capital, to the detriment of Republican candidates, in the cause of undermining fair elections.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
There isn't just one Trump #slushfund. There are at least five of them. washingtonspectator.org/government-b...
washingtonspectator.org
Government by Slush Fund | Washington Spectator
Trump’s new $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund is a slush fund. But it is not his only one.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
mei.edu/publication/...
mei.edu
From Hormuz to the Sahel: A Fertilizer Shock, and a Maghreb Solution - Middle East Institute
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-war... A colossal strategic mistake - not just in the short term. Not just the medium term. But for the long term.
foreignaffairs.com
How the War Saved the Iranian Regime
The unintended consequences of the U.S.-Israeli assault.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
open.substack.com/pub/jwiner/p...
open.substack.com
Emergency Planning
My latest piece for the Washington Spectator focuses on the risk of Trump using secret presidential emergency powers - known as PEADs or Presidential Emergency Action Documents - against those he char...
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
mei.edu/publication/... Libya needs a succession plan.
mei.edu
Libya’s Fragile Equilibrium: Succession Risk and Energy Stability - Middle East Institute
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
open.substack.com/pub/steadyst...
open.substack.com
“Just for Fun”- A Presidential Remark and the Law of War
The Steady State | by Jonathan M. Winer
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
mei.edu/publication/...
mei.edu
Intelligence questions as the war with Iran enters a more uncertain phase - Middle East Institute
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
open.substack.com/pub/steadyst...
open.substack.com
Intelligence First. War Second. What Justified the U.S. Attack on Iran, and What Comes Next?
The Steady State | by Jonathan M. Winer
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
#Libya has a lot of oil and currently a lot of IOC interest. But it still needs to take steps to sustain more than exploratory investments, whatever agreements may be announced now. mei.edu/publication/...
mei.edu
Making Libya investable again - Middle East Institute
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
washingtonspectator.org/after-the-ca...
washingtonspectator.org
After the Capture | Washington Spectator
Having removed Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela through military force, the United States is now the decisive external actor shaping Venezuela’s near-term political and economic trajectory.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
open.substack.com/pub/steadyst...
open.substack.com
Venezuela After Maduro: Six Questions That Matter Now
The Steady State : by Jonathan M. Winer
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
washingtonspectator.org/why-are-we-i...
washingtonspectator.org
Why Are We in Venezuela? | Washington Spectator
On December 15, 2025, Donald Trump issued the latest in a series of unprecedented executive orders, designating the narcotic drug fentanyl—used daily as an anesthetic in hospitals throughout the…
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Reposted by Jonathan M. Winer
Mark Rothko @markrothko.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Black on Maroon botfrens.com/collections/25/content…
date inscribed
Presented by the artist through the American Federation of Arts 1969
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
“A thug and a sick man.” Breaking from House Republicans who subpoenaed Jack Smith for a private interview about Trump prosecutions, Trump said Smith should appear in public hearing. “I’d rather see him testify publicly,” Trump said of Smith, after attacking him as a “thug” & “a sick man.”
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Market Volatility Underscores Epic Buildup of Global Risk www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/b... "Critics warn that a small group of tech companies, including Nvidia, are essentially buying and selling to each other in circular deals that inflate their actual value." (Same thing with crypto. Massively.)
nytimes.com
Market Volatility Underscores Epic Buildup of Global Risk
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
# NYT reporting on #Comey indictment dismissal incorrect on analysis of statute of limitations. Because first indictment is void, not defective, statute of limitations has run & case cannot lawfully be revived no matter what DoJ may claim. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/11... Case law is clear.
nytimes.com
Trump Administration Live Updates: Judge Tosses Criminal Charges Against James Comey and Letitia James
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
I do not see any legal basis for these operations would make them lawful. The implications if they are indeed unlawful under either domestic and international law for those involved in principle include potential legal actions by the families of the victims. www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...
nbcnews.com
Top military lawyer raised legal concerns about boat strikes
The lawyer at U.S. Southern Command, which oversees the operations against alleged drug-smuggling boats near Venezuela, disagreed that the strikes are legal and was overruled, according to six sources...
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
I met a traveller from an antique land, Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand, Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown, And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command, Tell that its sculptor well those passions read Which yet survive...
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Reposted by Jonathan M. Winer
Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
One of the characteristics of a totalitarian regime with a personality cult is that the leader makes no distinction between what is his privately and what belongs to the state. They are one and the same thing.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
washingtonspectator.org/criminalizin...
washingtonspectator.org
Criminalizing the Opposition | Washington Spectator
When those in power bend the machinery of justice to their will, they rarely stop with their personal enemies. In 2025, Donald Trump began repurposing the powers of the federal government to hobble…
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
open.substack.com/pub/steadyst...
open.substack.com
Project 2025 and the Purge of American Diplomacy: The Blitzkrieg Against State
The Steady State | by Jonathan M. Winer October 9, 2025
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
This kind of prepation of the public for how to manage what may be coming is of huge importance. The situation in Philadelphia is especially fraught because it is already so partisan. All but one GOP member of PA house earlier voted to impeach this Dem DA for not doing Philadelphia crime their way.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Seven deadly Sins Pride- Excessive love of oneself, the original & most serious sin. Greed-Excessive desire for wealth. Wrath - Uncontrolled hatred, rage, & fury. Envy. Lust. Gluttony. Sloth: Spiritual & physical laziness, indifference to the divine. Something to reflect on in this period.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
His language is absolutist, grievance-laden, & punitive. The very existence of an authority beyond himself provokes him to try to destroy it. He will “never submit or yield,” urging his legions to find glory in rebellion and vengeance. Of course I am describing Satan in Milton’s “Paradise Lost.”
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 23/08/2025
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed Everybody knows the war is over Everybody knows the good guys lost Everybody knows the fight was fixed The poor stay poor, the rich get rich That's how it goes Everybody knows m.youtube.com/watch?v=Gxd2...
m.youtube.com
Leonard Cohen - Everybody Knows (Official Audio)
YouTube video by LeonardCohenVEVO
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Not an accident and not a surprise but still a travesty. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/u...
nytimes.com
Unnoticed Whistle-Blower Document Alarms Justice Department Veterans
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 27/07/2025
First Amendment forbids govt role in curtailing speech on basis of content. Settled law. Heritage can do whatever it wants but feds cannot lawfully follow them. When they do, up to SCOTUS to stop it. Yes, I know.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
washingtonspectator.org/the-icemen-c...
washingtonspectator.org
The Icemen Cometh | Washington Spectator
On July 9, 2025, the House of Representatives passed a sweeping legislative package that dramatically expanded the operational scope and funding of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)…
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
E pur si muove. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/c...
nytimes.com
E.P.A. Is Said to Draft a Plan to End Its Ability to Fight Climate Change
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 19/07/2025
Working on a piece about ICE's new budget, mission, and potential capacities. It's not a pretty picture and it has implications that go well beyond what will happen to people deemed to be illegal immigrants.
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Reposted by Jonathan M. Winer
PBS News @pbsnews.org · 17/07/2025
Democrats walked out of a committee vote Thursday to advance the judicial nomination of Emil Bove as Sen. Cory Booker accused the committee chairman of rushing the vote without following Senate rules.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
The Gender Gap That Ate the Democrats www.nytimes.com/2025/07/08/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | The Gender Gap That Ate the Democrats
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
mei.edu/publications... #Iran #Israel #diplomacy
mei.edu
The alternative to regime change: Changing the regime’s behavior
After Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan, can we learn to deal differently with Iran?
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
The Presidential planning for the use of emergency powers to militarize domestic law enforcement - and not just in Los Angeles. washingtonspectator.org/searching-fo...
washingtonspectator.org
Searching for the Trigger | Washington Spectator
Trump has begun planning to invoke the Insurrection Act. Here’s how he could turn America’s military into a new domestic nationwide policing force. On June 7, 2025, President Donald J.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
Why restraint on rhetoric about #Iran would make us safer and why threats do not. www.mei.edu/blog/iran-us...
mei.edu
On Iran, US restraint could reduce risks
President Donald Trump threatens Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But measured language and disciplined policy can help prevent escalation and protect American interests.
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Jonathan M. Winer @jonathanmwiner.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
washingtonspectator.org/caesar-in-ca...
washingtonspectator.org
Caesar in California | Washington Spectator
The legal confrontation between the federal government and the State of California entered a new phase on June 7, 2025, when President Donald J. Trump invoked 10 U.S.C. § 12406, a statute that allows…
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