We also compared strictly protected areas with matched unprotected sites. Greening was slightly slower inside PAs, but protection did not alter the relationship between nitrogen deposition and vegetation greening, suggesting these global pressures extend well beyond reserve boundaries.
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![Figure showing that protection status does not moderate the relationship between changes in green plant biomass and global change drivers. (A) Spatial distribution of strictly protected areas (IUCN category Ia, Ib and II) and paired control areas in similar environmental conditions and of the same size and shape; (B) interaction of global change drivers and protection status. The x-axis is restricted to the 2.5–97.5th percentile of the respective variable. The units for the predictors are as follows: fire frequency is given in number of fires between 2001 and 2024, human modification index (HMI) change is in percent of land modified, mean annual temperature (MAT) trend and max. annual temperature trend is °C year−1, N deposition is in kg km−2 year−1 and precipitation trend is mm year−1. Shading represents the 95% confidence intervals. All variables have been scaled and centered for modeling but are plotted on their original scale to ease interpretation. The models further contained MAT and mean annual precipitation (MAP) to account for the environmental context (MAT: ß = 0.33 [95% CI: −0.24, 0.91]; MAP: ß = −0.01 [−0.37, 0.36]. Variables were considered significant when the 95% confidence interval of the coefficient estimate did not overlap zero.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gywsdqpkfbrtdyem4bgy2luq/bafkreihwamhk4cfel6l7vmadooafdmjor5yiefeejoynlklkjzkcdto3py)
![Study area, exclosure locations and plot design. (a) Study area. The shaded polygons represent the protected areas we worked in (Addo Elephant National Park [AENP], Phongolo Nature Reserve [PNR], Kruger National Park [KNP]). The inset maps show the exclosures and the black dots correspond to the true plot locations. The Nyathi exclosures extend approximately 200 m at their longest site, while Jack's exclosure reaches about 2200 m. The PNR border fence is approximately 4400 m long and 20 m wide, and therefore appears as a line on the map. The black dots indicate clusters of three plots inside and three paired plots outside the fence. The Nkuhlu exclosure spans approximately 1350 m, the Satara exclosure about 550 m and the N'waswitshumbe exclosure approximately 2000 m; (b) plot layout. We identified all herbaceous plants on small plots (0.5 × 2 m), nested in bigger plots (2.5 × 10) on which all woody plants were identified. The LiDAR scanner was placed in the centre of the larger plot.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gywsdqpkfbrtdyem4bgy2luq/bafkreigb2cgnegah5bcpw7bc5kuqqejipe6g3zsrcfcq7qnsmn7tnve4bi)
