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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 13m

The dems just need one of the races rated as tossups to do so. I think the 98th should be at least rated Lean D. Christina Bohannan(D) carried that district by 8.9% in 2024 (according to @statenavigate.org)and should carry it be at least 10% this year.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 13m

That said I think It was good for dems overall that Trone Garriott ran for congress because she was almost the strongest possible candidate dems could have got in IA CD 3. Plus Rob Sand will defintly have a veto pen if he wins because the democrats just need to pick up one seat in the state house.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 13m

But there is a catch. If Trone Garriott(D) wins a seat in congress she will have to resign her senate seat and that would temporally gives republican a supermajority status in the state senate. senate district is competitive But democrats should be favored to win a potential special election.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 13m

assuming Mike Zimmer loses and the dems win the senate seats they are expected to in Iowa. that would make democrats get 34%to republicans 66% that would block a republican supermajority in the chamber.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 39m

The Andy Beshear of Montana!

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 1h

do you think this will affect Don Davis' race by chance?

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 22h

1. HD 26 2. HD 75 3. HD 9 4. HD 12 5. HD 119 6. HD 117 7. HD 7 8. HD 43 I tried to put them in order from most winnable for democrats to least winnable. I will most likely go over each one before election day.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 22h

It is hard to impossibly to run the table on all the races so it is good to have back ups if democrats lose one. here are 8 more potentially competitive districts to watch. if the democrats win one of these 8 they are really likely to at least tie the chamber (listed below)

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

It seems like You were implying there that Talarico was indeed at the hospital and someone got an illegal recording to prove it. I think that statement is wrong and if indeed it is can someone explain why it is false?

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

In 2024 Betsy Fogle(D) won by 10% outperforming Harris by 5.7% and outperformed the dem senate candidate that year by 2.6%. Melanie Stinnett(R) preformed extremely well in 2024 outperforming Trump by 9.9%.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The ironic thing is that Nick is Hispanic.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

I interned in the prothonotary Office. And one we talked for 2 hours straight. the prothonotary is not very a political position(even though it is an elected position).

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Also The democrats already have the PA state house. so the democrats didn't need Hogan's seat. I also Had a very close relationship with than republican prothonotary Coleen Christian.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

That timing made it less awkward. At that time I wasn't thinking about "I want him to lose". instead I was thinking, "he is a critical vote in the state house, so he is an interesting state rep who can sometimes by helpful". Also I meant him at a totally non-political legislative form event.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

I have meant a few republicans in the past and this was the most embarrassing time that I have done so. people even pointed out a was so nervous my face turned red. I meant PA state rep Joe Hogan(R) and was even quite happy and exited. I meant Hogan February of 2025. right after an election.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Ohio under no circumstances is considered a southern state.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

I think the Oregon governor race this year might end up how the New Jersey Governor race did last year.

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Reposted by John Burke

Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

We could see Alaska's unique coalition of Dems/Independents/moderate Republicans expand their majority in the State House this year, as they're currently winning four Republican-held seats in the primary. Combine that with a potential Democratic Governor, Alaska could have a quasi-Dem Trifecta!

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I also added that he made Adelita Grijalva get sworn in late I did not want to sound like A Nonsense liberal who would criticize a republican regardless of what they do. so I tried to seem reasonable and praised him for voting to take away Trump's Tariffs.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Also when I asked him why he didn't sign the discharge petition to release the Epstein Files. He was like "I did" and showed me another discharge petition. and was like "I knew it was going to get to the floor." He was pretty much speechless.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Update I talked to him I confronted him about the Epstein Files. I made my self sound reasonable though and did thank him for voting to get rid Tariffs) I think we do need to be reasonable. Because we need to be reasonable to win and be willing to tell the truth.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

@jonathancohn.bsky.social I am in a union event in the same room as Brian Fitzpatrick and it is quite embarrassing. He is speaking now.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Democrats very wanted Abrams to run for senate in 2020. instead they got Ossoff. at first that seemed like A nightmare scenerio for democrats. But than it ended up to be quite good for the democrats.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

It is amazing how Jon Ossoff has went from being one of democrats worse contenders(after he did worse than Clinton in 2017) to one of democrats best canidates in the state. Also Stacey Abrams use to be considered a strong canidate fo dems but now she gives dems headachs

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I put two serrate pieces of the district into the DRA, The Henrico, Richmond and Chesterfield county(s) Piece of it, and the rest and when I did it, It showed Harris did 3.8% better than Biden in the first part but did 0.9% worse than Biden in the latter part. of the district

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Lancaster county is a place that trended right in between the three elections Going From Trump+4.6 in 2020 to Trump+7 in 24 to Trump Sears+9.1 in 25. Northumberland county also Trended Right between the elections Trump won it by 15.8% in 20 and 21.1% in 24 and Sears won it in 25 by 21.2%

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

if you look in a little bit to the Shifts between 2020 Pres-2024 Pres-2025 governor there is some interesting shifts in VA 1st CD. Overall it went from Trump + 6.7%-Trump+4.9% to Spanberger+2.2% But the shifts between the elections were quite uneven. I will go into more detail by county below

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Surprised a lot of pollsters still rate the race Safe R

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The democratic incumbent(Alan Silvia) has an opponent for the first time since when he defeat an incumbent in 2012.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

HD 7th Bristol is also A quite interesting district. Elizabeth Warren actually did quite better than Harris is Bristol 7th HD. In 2024 Harris lost that district by 4.6% in 2024 while Warren actually won it by 4.4%.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Josh Shapiro being on Track to win be a bigger margin than he did in 2022 despite a stronger on paper opponent, kind of reminds me of when Andy Beshear won by a bigger margin in 2023 than in 2019. Beshear was running against a sitting statewide elected official in 2023 like Shapiro is now.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I even have it rated as Safe D

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

District 133 Voted for Trump in 2024 by 2.3% but voted Dem For Us senate that year by 1.7% and Dem For Gov in 2024 by 0.7%. District 94 is a district where dems would be underdogs in a year like 2020, 22. or 2024 was. But should win it this year because of the blue year.(it was a Trump+6.6 district)

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

District 30 is a District that voted for Trump by 3.3% in 2020 But voted for Harris in 2024 by<1%. Emanuel Cleaver lost this district by 3.3% despite doing 1% better than Harris in his congressional race overall. these number show that it is trending Blue but also redder down ballot.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

If dems win those 3 open seats that would be just enough to break the republicans supermajority. here are the three seats. (below)

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Dems need a net gain of 3 to break the republican supermajority in the state house. Missouri has term limits so there are of course a lot of open seats. But most seats where republicans are term limited are safe seats. (there are at least three that can flip though).

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

That was better than even 7.8% better than what Lafferty did in the county in 2022 when she won district wide by 19.6%!

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Johnny Ray Turner was unopposed for state senate from 2008 until he lost in 2020, in 2020 he lost reelection to a state senate seat by 7.8% overperforming Biden by 50.8%. Turner(D) won Floyd county(that makes up a fast majority of HD 95) in 2020 by 25%.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I think Oregon is one of the very few places where dems should want Kamala Harris to campaign(For Tina Kotek ) I think Oregon was Harris' best state in 2024 compared to pre election day expectations. Harris only did 1.78% worse than Biden in the state. and won it overall by 14.3%

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

assuming Jenna again underperforms the dem baseline this year, Crowley will probably need to win the district by 4%(and statewide by about 3%) for Jenna to win.

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John Burke @johnrburke.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

One thing you did not mention is that Jenna Jacobson (WI 17 SD dem candidate actually underperformed the dem baseline in 2024 win she ran for reelection to the state assembly. Jenna underperformed Harris by 1.7% and Baldwin by 3.7%.

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