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John Pfaff

@johnpfaff.bsky.social
45K followers 754 following 18K posts

Professor at Fordham Law. Prisons and criminal justice quant. I'm not contrarian, the data are. Author of Locked In. New stuff at johnfpfaff.com.

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Reposted by John Pfaff
John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 14h
So: my call for help. Attached are the books I'm currently thinking of using. But def curious if ppl have other suggestions (or just suggestions, where I still don't have a sense yet of which to use). I'm pretty set on the topic areas (which I know don't cover everything). But the books? V. open.
Structure of Revised Criminal Policy Class


Better Historical Perspective

It’s easy to think that we’ve always just punitively locked people up with little chance of release before their time is up. But the past wasn’t like that, which means the future doesn’t have to be either.

1. Page, Phelps, and Goodman: Breaking the Pendulum. We’ve been a lot more (and equally not) progressive in the past, and the politics of how we swing back and forth is … tricky, and not what the conventional wisdom says.
2. Hillyer: A Wall is Just a Wall. The Willie Horton concerns of today are historically contingent. We used to let a lot more people out of (and into) prisons than we do now, and were more tolerant of the risks, though the justifications—like Southern racist paternalism—are messy. 
3. Muhammad: Condemnation of Blackness. Not sure if this is necessarily the right section, but obviously this is a thesis the students need to know quite early on to understand much of the politics of punishment.


The Messy Politics

One of my main criticism of The New Jim Crow was its relatively black-and-white politics of oppression. That’s definitely a part of it all! But the reality is messier.

1. Forman: Locking Up Our Own. The call sometimes, to some degree, with a lot of nuance and complication, is coming from inside the house. Black-led 1970s DC is a good example—but also shows that Black demands are very different from white ones.
2. Phelps: Minneapolis Reckoning. Minneapolis is an interesting place, because while in most cities support for reform DC rises almost linearly with the percent of the voting precinct that is Black, in Minneapolis it’s an upside-down U. Phelps’ book shows that the nuance Forman describes in the 1970s continues to the 2020s.
3. Eason: Big House on the Prairie (best crim legal book title of all time). Maybe prisons don’t make communities worse off, and especially in the South maybe closing prisons will disproportionately hurt Black communities. A good remind…The Trial Process Itself

Not the sanction that gets handed down, but the actual way we get from indictment to disposition punishes itself. I feel like we have a term for it… though I’m not sure I need to assign The Process is the Punishment itself, if the other books on here get at that point.

1. Koehler-Hausmann: Misdemeanorland. The worst amusement park anywhere. But a great overview of just how much bigger and sprawling the misdemeanor system is, and how (at least in NYC, and I imagine in most big cities) it is defined almost entirely by the process, not the outcome, and that process can be dragged out a lot.
2. Bazelon: Charged. Two anecdotal cases about the burden of the trial process, in particular the account of the case moving through gun court in Brooklyn. Brooklyn is arguably one of the most progressive districts in the country, but the burden of the gun diversion program was still extensive.


Jails

One could argue that jails are part of the trial process, but I think they deserve their own section.

1. Walker: Indefinite. An excellent first person account by a future academic of his time inside LA County jails.
2. Need another good book on jails, perhaps one that covers the policy and impact at a more macro level.


Prisons

1. A book on prisoners’ actual experiences in prison. 
2. Wakefield and Wildeman: Children of the Prison Boom. A good account of how the costs of mass incarceration are generational and systemic in their reach.


Non-Prison Punishment

1. Schiraldi: Mass Supervision. An excellent overview of the history and future of probation and surveillance from an academic with on-the-ground experience. (I knew Adams was going to be a disaster of a mayor when one of his Day One priorities was firing Schiraldi from running Rikers and replacing him with the union’s handpicked guy.)
2. Need another good book on either probation or the experiences of those on probation


Post-Confinement Challenges

1. Miller: Halfway Home. A powerful personal nar…
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 14h
So: my call for help. Attached are the books I'm currently thinking of using. But def curious if ppl have other suggestions (or just suggestions, where I still don't have a sense yet of which to use). I'm pretty set on the topic areas (which I know don't cover everything). But the books? V. open.
Structure of Revised Criminal Policy Class


Better Historical Perspective

It’s easy to think that we’ve always just punitively locked people up with little chance of release before their time is up. But the past wasn’t like that, which means the future doesn’t have to be either.

1. Page, Phelps, and Goodman: Breaking the Pendulum. We’ve been a lot more (and equally not) progressive in the past, and the politics of how we swing back and forth is … tricky, and not what the conventional wisdom says.
2. Hillyer: A Wall is Just a Wall. The Willie Horton concerns of today are historically contingent. We used to let a lot more people out of (and into) prisons than we do now, and were more tolerant of the risks, though the justifications—like Southern racist paternalism—are messy. 
3. Muhammad: Condemnation of Blackness. Not sure if this is necessarily the right section, but obviously this is a thesis the students need to know quite early on to understand much of the politics of punishment.


The Messy Politics

One of my main criticism of The New Jim Crow was its relatively black-and-white politics of oppression. That’s definitely a part of it all! But the reality is messier.

1. Forman: Locking Up Our Own. The call sometimes, to some degree, with a lot of nuance and complication, is coming from inside the house. Black-led 1970s DC is a good example—but also shows that Black demands are very different from white ones.
2. Phelps: Minneapolis Reckoning. Minneapolis is an interesting place, because while in most cities support for reform DC rises almost linearly with the percent of the voting precinct that is Black, in Minneapolis it’s an upside-down U. Phelps’ book shows that the nuance Forman describes in the 1970s continues to the 2020s.
3. Eason: Big House on the Prairie (best crim legal book title of all time). Maybe prisons don’t make communities worse off, and especially in the South maybe closing prisons will disproportionately hurt Black communities. A good remind…The Trial Process Itself

Not the sanction that gets handed down, but the actual way we get from indictment to disposition punishes itself. I feel like we have a term for it… though I’m not sure I need to assign The Process is the Punishment itself, if the other books on here get at that point.

1. Koehler-Hausmann: Misdemeanorland. The worst amusement park anywhere. But a great overview of just how much bigger and sprawling the misdemeanor system is, and how (at least in NYC, and I imagine in most big cities) it is defined almost entirely by the process, not the outcome, and that process can be dragged out a lot.
2. Bazelon: Charged. Two anecdotal cases about the burden of the trial process, in particular the account of the case moving through gun court in Brooklyn. Brooklyn is arguably one of the most progressive districts in the country, but the burden of the gun diversion program was still extensive.


Jails

One could argue that jails are part of the trial process, but I think they deserve their own section.

1. Walker: Indefinite. An excellent first person account by a future academic of his time inside LA County jails.
2. Need another good book on jails, perhaps one that covers the policy and impact at a more macro level.


Prisons

1. A book on prisoners’ actual experiences in prison. 
2. Wakefield and Wildeman: Children of the Prison Boom. A good account of how the costs of mass incarceration are generational and systemic in their reach.


Non-Prison Punishment

1. Schiraldi: Mass Supervision. An excellent overview of the history and future of probation and surveillance from an academic with on-the-ground experience. (I knew Adams was going to be a disaster of a mayor when one of his Day One priorities was firing Schiraldi from running Rikers and replacing him with the union’s handpicked guy.)
2. Need another good book on either probation or the experiences of those on probation


Post-Confinement Challenges

1. Miller: Halfway Home. A powerful personal nar…
3124
John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 14h
So my new plan is to spend the first ~2 weeks giving a broad overview myself, then have students in groups of ~2 present each week on a topic, with 2-3 books assigned each week. Students not presenting will have to come up with q's in advance, but won't have to read ALL the stuff for that week.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 14h
One thing I am doing over my sabbatical this year is completely overhauling my Sentencing Law and Policy class, and turning it more into a How the Criminal Legal System Operates class. I'm also trying to basically flip the class, to get the students to do most of the presenting (it's a seminar).
static.klipy.com
Dr. Mike (Mikhail Varshavski): Call For Help
Alt: Dr. Mike (Mikhail Varshavski): Call For Help
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Reposted by John Pfaff
John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16h
The tl;dr is that, tentatively, the effect I reported in Locked In appears to be continuing into the prison-decline era as well. That doesn't mean that reform DAs have done nothing. Just that--the states with reformers generally have declines (tho they also have a lot of other stuff happening too).
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15h
Oh, the state/locals have *nothing* like the level of data integration that the feds have. I'll likely never be able to police to prosecutors in the same way, or even see what happens inside a DAs office. I can only dream.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16h
But that "tentatively" is real. NCSC data is kinda messy, so these are very preliminary. But def consistent with the finding that prison admissions have fallen much more slowly than the inputs (crime and arrests).
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16h
The tl;dr is that, tentatively, the effect I reported in Locked In appears to be continuing into the prison-decline era as well. That doesn't mean that reform DAs have done nothing. Just that--the states with reformers generally have declines (tho they also have a lot of other stuff happening too).
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16h
I'm not sure it's a shift in their approach, just an on-going pattern. We saw the same thing in the 2000s: declining crime, declining arrests, increasingly cases filed in felony court. There's still no clear answer as to why, tho I think one big one is just staffing (we hired a lot of ADAs).
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Reposted by John Pfaff
John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16h
And here's some telling preliminary caseload data from the National Center for State Courts, which has data online from 2012-2025, but I stop at 2019 bc of Covid. At least prior to Covid, some states saw caseload declines, but small ones, percentage-wise, but others saw small to very big increases.
Set of graphs that track what the post says, but which are very hard to describe, since there are 35 separate ones.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16h
The NCSC data is sort of messy--I keep coming across reporting issues as I dig through it. But these lines all seem pretty plausible. Cleaning and checking is on-going. As always, interpret indices with care--a small decline in NJ = far more ppl than a bigger rise in NDak.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16h
And here's some telling preliminary caseload data from the National Center for State Courts, which has data online from 2012-2025, but I stop at 2019 bc of Covid. At least prior to Covid, some states saw caseload declines, but small ones, percentage-wise, but others saw small to very big increases.
Set of graphs that track what the post says, but which are very hard to describe, since there are 35 separate ones.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16h
So, once again, the biggest resistance to declining prisons falls somewhere between arrest and admission. (And I'm not cynically cherrypicking my dates here--I put these #s together as part of something else, with a dataset that starts in 2012.)
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16h
We are admitting fewer people to prison now than before, but the decline is less than the decline in inputs. Also, during that time, reported seriously violence fell by 1.6% (so decline in arrests > decline in crime), reported serious property fell by 23% (ditto: even bigger arrest drop).
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16h
Interesting stat on how declining prison pops in many ways mask growing harshness. Between 2012 and 2019: Arrests for serious violence: -5% Arrests for serious property crimes: -35% Arrests for drug sale/manuf/traffic: -28% Annual prison admissions: -4%
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 21h
I'm revamping my sentencing law class right now, and one thing I want to include are readings about life in prison by those in prison. I've come across these three books, wondering if anyone thinks one is better than the other, or if there are others still I should consider. Thanks!
Bell Chevigny, ed., Doing Time: 25 Years of Prison Writing (via Pen American Center).H Bruce Franklin, ed., Prison Writing in 20th-Century America.Gaye Holma: Decades Behind Bars (which unlike the others, is someone else's editing of others' letters and writings).
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
It's been an hour, so I assume that colon is a typo, but ... man. I've been waiting. It's like a student I had back in the day who was bombing the exam and only used 3 bluebooks, but numbered them 1/4, 2/4, & 3/4. I've always wondered if they were trying to make me fear I'd lost one and pass them.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I honestly didn't think they existed at all anymore until I was doing college tours recently in central PA and came across several.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I went with Kitnamax a while back:
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Oh, absolutely! I’ve said on here repeatedly that 1 First St should be converted into a museum abt the struggle for voting rights and SCOTUS moved to a strip mall next to a Perkins in Kansas. And clerkship budgets should be tied to ethics filings and revokable as a sanction.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Anyway, saving/salvaging democracy requires thinking big. Also, if you didn’t know you could maybe commit murder for free in one corner of Yellowstone, now you do:
en.wikipedia.org
Zone of Death (Yellowstone) - Wikipedia
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
We can’t fire them. But we could nerf them. Expand and reorg the entire Fed judiciary—new districts, new circuits, etc. And then move the judges around, break up toxic courts (hey there, 5th Cir), put the worst in places they can do least harm, abolish all so single-judge districts, etc.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Create the District and Circuit Court of the Murder Isn’t a Crime Zone of Death in Yellowstone. Reorg the courts and relocate all the worst Trumpers to a new district and circuit with no people. This is 1/10th sarcasm and 9/10ths not. Impeachment is a nullify, so need to be creative.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Also, article in @reuters.com about it here, which I am linking to bc the article deserves legit props: it included a link to the appellate court opinion, something too few articles on cases do. Genuinely grateful that they did that.
reuters.com
Arizona court says judge wrongly allowed AI-generated victim video
An Arizona appeals court on Wednesday ordered a new sentencing hearing for a man convicted of a fatal road-rage shooting, finding that a judge improperly relied on an AI-generated video depicting ​the...
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
I've seen ppl ask why the defense appealed the AI, after the judge said he heard mercy and compassion in the fake testimony. It's prob bc despite that, the DA asked for 9 yrs and the judge gave 10.5. Not JUST bc of the video, but likely in part. Opinion is here:
fingfx.thomsonreuters.com
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
This strikes me as the exactly right outcome. The idea that a sophisticated matching program could be used to try to guess at what a murder victim would say and then wrap that guess in increasingly-lifelike images seems ... terrible. (It was even worse here, bc they intercut AI w real video too.)
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
So this just got reversed by an AZ appellate court, and pretty harshly too. The courts goes out of its way to make it clear that various procedural, evidentiary, and other rules require it to very much take the side OF the AI evidence. And then say it created incurable bias.
By contrast, the AI video crossed that line. Unlike the
photographs in Rose, which captured a particularly poignant moment for
the young surviving victims, the AI video here (excluding the embedded
“real” videos of the victim) does not reflect actual events. Indeed, rather
than documenting an event or recording a particular moment, the AI video
presents a depiction of the victim and his thoughts created from the
imaginings of the victim’s sister.
¶51 Moreover, despite the explanations concerning the genesis of
the AI video, it presents the statement (including non-verbal
communications made through facial expressions and the like) as coming
directly from the victim. It erases the interpretive distance between the
family’s belief about what the victim would have said and the victim’s own
voice and opinions. Indeed, the AI victim stated, “this here is a true
representation of who I was, you know, not how the courtroom portrayed
me.” No disclaimer could cure that error.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Mine‘s a hobbit: third breakfastes, seventh lunches. Need to make sure wherever he goes has an endowment big enough to absorb the hit.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
I think half the price of college tuition next year is going to be offset by the savings from not having to feed a teenager who runs 50 miles per week.
static.klipy.com
Massive Locust Swarm in China
Alt: Massive Locust Swarm in China
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I appreciate the courage of a non-American to try to compete in the "appalling injustices of a broken criminal legal system" Olympics with an American, but we are truly a superpower here, in a weight class of our own. I see your ten, and raise you ... zero.
abc7ny.com
Bodycam video shows 6-year-old's tearful plea during arrest for tantrum at Orlando school
A 6-year-old girl was put in handcuffs and arrested at her Orlando elementary school for throwing a tantrum.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
If nothing else, I think law profs at elite schools face a huge conflict of interest problem, bc they want their students to clerk for SCOTUS, and if SCOTUS is 6-3 GOP, then liberal law profs have to curry their favor. But I also think it's not seeing the stakes for what they REALLY are.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
THIS. IS. NOT. A. GAME. If you think Barrett will do real harm to the world--if you actually BELIEVE in the values you say she opposes--then you should oppose her. At the least, just ... stay quiet! Don't DEFEND her. PROMOTE her.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
If you disagree with everything Barrett stands for, then you should use your bully pulpit to fight against everything she is going to DO. Not say "hey, I disagree with her, but she's done some interesting mental tricks, so let's give her lifelong power to hurt people."
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The "brilliant Barrett" is the one that gets me the most, bc it arguably is less about Feldman himself and more about how elite law schools and institutions see SCOTUS: Not as an institution that actually has real, and often devastating, impacts on ppl's lives. But a prize for legal cleverness.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Feldman remains a near-perfectly negative indicator for takes on SCOTUS. He's the guy who gave us these earlier bangers. Just further proof that there's zero accountability for those in the elite pundit class, who continue to get invited to throw out terrible takes in influential places.
Feldman saying Gorsuch is a GOPer Dems can work with.Feldman praising Barrett.Feldman saying Kav is the last hope for abortion rights.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I’m guessing the correlation between: • “I’m tough on crime! Lock up that young Black man (aged 14) selling drugs!” and • “Wasn‘t an essay enough punishment for those poor young boys (aged 18+) at Cornell?” is close to 1.00000. In case anyone still thinks “tough on crime” is abt … crime.
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Reposted by John Pfaff
John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
My latest @ms.now, on why it‘s not (legally) cruel and unusual for Tennessee to try to execute Christa Pike again, even w all the risks that remain, but also on why Gov. Bill Lee has far more political room to use his clemency than our conventional political narrative suggests.
ms.now
Opinion | Tennessee botched its attempted execution of Christa Pike. It shouldn’t try again.
John Pfaff: Gov. Bill Lee can do what the Supreme Court will not — and prevent a punishment that already feels morally cruel and unusual.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
As a general matter, I love the variety that federalism produces (sincerely). But professionally I sometimes hate it bc it makes it so easy to make mistakes like this. There's always one state doing one thing in a slightly different way that throws off whatever taxonomic claims I'm trying to make.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Ah, thanks! Wanted to see how I got it wrong, and think the distinction I didn't appreciate/make clear is that RI, like the feds, also has no retirement age, but NH has one of 70. So you still know yours will have to leave by a known point. But will be clearer abt that going forward.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I’m not saying I’m optimistic that Lee will do so. But he’s now imposed a statewide moratorium for the second time, and joins Ohio Gov Mike DeWine as the second GOP governor to do so, all out of concerns abt bad drug issues. And support for the death penalty hasn’t been this low since the 1970s.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
My latest @ms.now, on why it‘s not (legally) cruel and unusual for Tennessee to try to execute Christa Pike again, even w all the risks that remain, but also on why Gov. Bill Lee has far more political room to use his clemency than our conventional political narrative suggests.
ms.now
Opinion | Tennessee botched its attempted execution of Christa Pike. It shouldn’t try again.
John Pfaff: Gov. Bill Lee can do what the Supreme Court will not — and prevent a punishment that already feels morally cruel and unusual.
55222
John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Like, what do we even do with this from McClesky v Kemp, in which SCOTUS basically says "if we accept that the death penalty is racially biased, we may be forced to confront the fact that the whole system is racially biased, and we can't do that, so ... the DP is fine. Fine. IT IS FINE."
Two additional concerns inform our decision in this case. First, McCleskey's claim, taken to its logical conclusion,
Page 481 U.S. 315
throws into serious question the principles that underlie our entire criminal justice system. The Eighth Amendment is not limited in application to capital punishment, but applies to all penalties. Solem v. Helm, 463 U. S. 277, 463 U. S. 289-290 (1983); see Rummel v. Estelle, 445 U. S. 263, 445 U. S. 293 (1980) (POWELL, J., dissenting). Thus, if we accepted McCleskey's claim that racial bias has impermissibly tainted the capital sentencing decision, we could soon be faced with similar claims as to other types of penalty. [Footnote 38] Moreover, the claim that his sentence
Page 481 U.S. 316
rests on the irrelevant factor of race easily could be extended to apply to claims based on unexplained discrepancies that correlate to membership in other minority groups, [Footnote 39] and
Page 481 U.S. 317
even to gender. [Footnote 40] Similarly, since McCleskey's claim relates to the race of his victim, other claims could apply with equally logical force to statistical disparities that correlate with the race or sex of other actors in the criminal justice system, such as defense attorneys [Footnote 41] or judges. [Footnote 42] Also, there is no logical reason that such a claim need be limited to racial or sexual bias. If arbitrary and capricious punishment is the touchstone under the Eighth Amendment, such a claim could -- at least in theory -- be based upon any arbitrary variable, such as the defendant's facial characteristics, [Footnote 43] or the physical attractiveness of the defendant or the victim, [Footnote 44] that some statistical
Page 481 U.S. 318
study indicates may be influential in jury decisionmaking. As these examples illustrate, there is no limiting principle to the type of challenge brought by McCleskey
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I'm not a death penalty person, and every time I find myself wading into the doctrine and decisions around the death penalty I realize I couldn't be, bc I can barely keep my rage in check as it is, and DP doctrine seems so much more maliciously worse. I think I'd explode.
static.klipy.com
Massive Desert Explosion
Alt: Massive Explosion in Akria
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
It's so grim that the attitude of so many SCOTUS members (even before the current set of people), and "tough on crime" types in general, is basically:
static.klipy.com
We're Just Gonna Kill 'Em
Alt: We're Just Gonna Kill 'Em
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I "love" SCOTUS's reasoning that bc they declared the death penalty abstractly constitutional, the 8A standard for executions is "the least torturous amount of pain." Unlike, say, asking if maybe the fact that every protocol raises 8A risks should make them rethink the DP.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Good question! I came across this literally today, while reading abt TN Supreme Court, not it's AG office, so haven't had a chance to dig into any of it yet. That post is sum total of my knowledge on this. But it struck me as really interesting. Always love finding some new state way to do things.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
TIL that the Tennessee Supreme Court appoints the state attorney general. That's a new arrangement I hadn't seen before. I wonder if it leads (or has led) to the AG being systematically different, politically, from other AGs in the US. (Tho right now, Gov Lee appointed 4/5 of TN-SCt, so...)
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
* THIS all calls for.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Too young to legally consent to sign a contract. But old enough to consent away where they want to live to be shipped someplace random by a government that hates them. In a just world, Hollad would need to annex half of Belgium to find room for the expanded Hague prison thus all calls for.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I’ll take the under.
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