iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Every fan who supports a salary cap should remember that fact - obscenely wealthy people are attempting to suppress wages to control labor costs and make more money / increase franchise value. Stars will still make the $. See the NFL and NBA. The $10m FA will disappear. Maybe good for the Phils?

000

One thing that is changing among the owners that at least gives me some pause, is that they are FAR more wealthy now. Many are people/groups who don’t really need the revenue from one season. They don’t want to devalue their asset, but they might have enough REALLY wealthy people to hold the line.

Marchan almost seemed reckless challenging compared to JT, only had a 56% correct rate. He was actually the best at this for the Phillies.

000

Been saying this all season. JT was awesome at taking low hanging fruit, but a high correct % does not equal good at the ABS game. 1/1 on challenges at the end of a game is no different than 1/3. And 2/4 is twice as good. Volume matters.

100

I expect DD to be extended because everyone seems to hang around forever in one type of advisory role or another (which is very nice), but this team needs change, fresh eyes, a new approach, and extending DD and bringing back a bad manager whose son works in the FO isn’t that.

000

The Phils have a guy who is well thought of in in MLB and the organization that was supposedly being groomed to run baseball ops and is currently a candidate to take over another franchise. He also has enough distance from the current baseball ops to make a clean break from existing relationships.

100

Additionally, we should be reminded that prior to joining the Phillies DD had joined the Nashville expansion group (where his home is) and joined the Phillies when the expansion timeline changed. If Nashville beats out NC, I still expect him to go there. Do we need him collecting a paycheck here?

100

Harper in 2022 and the first 8 games of 2023: .360/.457/.775 10 HR It’s probably not coming back, but we can hope.

000

Acuna has been far worse during that time by the way: .125/.300/.125

Bryce Harper since the start of game 3 vs Arizona, 2023 NLCS .214/.353/.446 3HR 2022 and the first 8 games of the 2023 postseason were a long time ago

100

If extended, the Phillies I guess will be hoping that the old dog has in fact learned some new tricks.

100

As Howie begins another “reload on the fly” project, it is a sobering reminder that Dombrowski has had success everywhere he has been building a World Series contender, but has never successfully transitioned from one core to another.

100

What a phenomenal 8 game stretch it was though. One of the best postseason players of all time.

Trea Turners first 8 postseason games with the Phillies vs Trea Turners most recent 16 postseason games with the Phillies. (He is the obvious answer to why they stopped scoring runs during those 16 games).

Yup. He has the job security to do this stuff and see it out the other side.

020

Quick research is that this might help them a little bit in absorbing the massive hit they do have to take with Lane (unless they are going to try and get some signing bonus $ back). Plus dumps as much of their dead $ as possible in ‘27, and add draft picks for next wave. Wentz-style maneuvering

I take it that the ‘27 hit has been confirmed. I realize most people don’t care for this stuff, but I like to realize the ulterior motives involved.

The “dead cap” is if they get cut I’m pretty sure, trade is the same. I have no idea what happens when a guy retires, but Lane’s cap hit for this year was a little over $20m, with a “dead cap” of $63m! We will hear lots about the business of football around this.

I didn’t see the 2nd the first time I saw the report either. Great value, not great for this season. I don’t know the NFL cap that well, but they have to accelerate signing bonus cap hits when they trade guys. Wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson retiring made this possible and they took advantage.

Those are just regular season appearances by the way. As a word of caution: Duran last 4 seasons: 59, 58, 72, 61 Kerkering: 3, 64, 69, 62 Alvarado: 42, 66, 28 (ped), 68 Mayza: 69, 50, 15, 60 Bowlan: 2, 1, 34, 59 Rare is the reliever that can repeat 60+ appearances season after season.

2008 Phillies Lidge 72 games Madson 76 Romero 81 Durbin 71 Lidge next 4 seasons: 67 (7.21 era), 50, 25, 11 career over Madson: 79, 55, 62, out injured next 2 seasons Romero: 21, 60, 36, 16 career over Durbin: 59, 64, 56, 76 (then 16 and career over)

The options are: get paid $7m+ to be on vacation for a year OR maybe make an additional $1-2m to manage an old baseball team with complications of a lockout and the main reason you would come is is a 70yo GM who has never successfully transitioned cores? See ya in ‘28!

000

Definitely. But if all 3 hit the IL and miss 20+ games (which is typical for Turner and Harper) then you are down closer to 400-420. Perhaps you miss one of those Harper 10 day streaks. That’s effectively what happened to the 2012 Phillies - their long term deals got hurt and weren’t playing

I know that. But he will be a pretty significant hole to fill whether the average WIP caller realizes it or not, and just like with Bichette last season, it would take a very good year to actually provide a significant upgrade. He is also the easiest to sign for just 1 season.

They absolutely need to hope that Turner provides value, Schwarber is much closer to his first 82 games in ‘26 than his last 74, and that Harper can hold his production for another season. Besides the fact that they are highly unlikely to play 475 games again. Or there is ANOTHER hole to fill

Which is why it’s not insane, if you can only really get one OF to replace your revolving $10m/1yr guy, and you really need 2, the best solution for ‘27 may be to QO Bohm. He might not take it if he thinks he has a market, but he would have to know to turn down that 1yr deal.

100

Suzuki has the added bonus of course of “entering the Japanese market”. He and Arozarena are the same age. It’s not the Phillies style, but I would absolutely go very high $, very small years if I went in their direction.

And if they replace Bohm in the lineup, you have more power. I think it is totally fair to say you can expect a better offensive player. But how much have you really moved the needle in the lineup swapping Arozerena (L) or Suzuki (middle) for Bohm?

100

Here are 3 RHH FAs, stats since 2022. If they could land the left and the middle (on the shortest possible deals) to play the corner OF spots, I think you could leave Turner at SS, move Marsh, let Crawford play CF, keep Stott. The furthest right is Bohm. If you only get 1, they replace him

200

vs Phillies, 95 pitches, 65 strikes vs Dodgers, 95 pitches, 62 strikes Phillies 4 hits, Dodgers 7 Phillies 1 BB, Dodgers 0 Phillies 0 HR, Dodgers 2 Phillies 3 runs, Dodgers 3 runs

If they weren’t carrying all the big $ long deals I might with you, but they are going to struggle to carry Stott on $10m+ for several years and sign a big star or two as the current guys decline. He is the tradeable guy worth the most in the market, but also may be too valuable to the ‘27 team.

220

Boo. I assume this will mean Brown and VJ sit the next one, I would guess Maxey, Embiid, LBJ play. At least Embiid and LBJ sit game 3. Game 4 all 5 start at home. Seems reasonable if close to that.

000

Assume this is about Harris. He lives in LA I’m pretty sure, so as a Harvard educated Political Science major he knows there is possibly nowhere in the country where his individual presidential vote for a Dem nominee is less important. And this got him some press. Can’t pull that shit in PA.

Marsh and Stott, like Bohm before them are the “good” options to trade. They aren’t stars and going into their last year of arbitration so they make decent $ and you will probably lose them for nothing after ‘27. But they kept deciding that the return for Bohm < Bohm. Marsh > Adolis for same $

On a side note, this is also why, unless or until they find a better use for the 40 man slot after spring training, I would arb Stubbs and Marchan if I can’t sign them before arbitration. Neither costs anything, and if disaster strikes they can catch the ball. One won’t survive the spring.

If you don’t get a good offer and keep him at approximately $1.5m, the worst case is he is bad in spring training, velo hasn’t returned, and you send him to LHV. When someone gets hurt he is an option. They have guys in their 30s who have never pitched in MLB at the bottom of the 40 every year.

So it would take pretty strong value for me to move him, because he’s probably better than most of those guys when right, and after that we are in Lazar/Rangel territory, no MiLB guys on the horizon, and Keller will miss most if not all the season.

As long as they can get value, sure. An ARB1 reliever with options who has been very effective for 90% of their MLB career is not something they have much of. Bowlan, Killian and I believe Shugart are out of options and we are assuming Duran and McFarlane will be good (not optioned). That’s 5 RHRP

The thing that concerned me most entering ‘26 and will for the next several years is they are old and expensive They got 146 starts from the top 5 starters. Wheeler started the season on the IL and Painter got sent down during the season. 475 games from Schwarber/Harper/Turner. Barely made WC

000

ABSOLUTELY. The first thing they had to do was dig out of the hole and effectively play “playoff” baseball to bank wins. Once they did that however, there was never an adjustment in usage made, that was the one trick and everyone got used up. A Mattingly calling card. They peaked in August.

020

As well as decreasing his FIP and xFIP and despite having an 8.03 era during that time was worth 0.3 fWAR? Almost as much as through 7/30? He had a disastrous end of his season, and his walk rate was too high most of the season, but he also falls in the overworked section for me.

I don’t think Kerk should have been on the playoff roster, he was a disaster the 4 times he pitched in September, was apparently hurt and in a boot at the end of August. But somehow he was a 0.4 WAR reliever with a 2.61 era through 7/30, then cut his walk rate in half from 7/31-8/31…

210

Then we have 7/31 to 8/31. Everyone that threw at least 5 innings. Aorted the same way (1st by innings, 2nd by era)

200

I will just put 2 sets of stats out there: first we have the Phillies bullpen from the start of the season through 7/30, everyone who threw at least 10 innings. First pic is sorted by innings, 2nd by era.

100

A lot of Arozarena talk as well and theoretically he is a good fit on this team (including entering his age 32 season…) While the position fit is almost certainly better, if he replaces Bohm’s production they will still need an IF added that can also replace Bohm’s production (keep Arraez?)

000

John @johnlindros.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Phillies press conference should be coming this week. If they are extending DD I assume it is announced there, maybe new manager as well. If he’s not being extended I assume they are parting ways. The 15 Phillies with at least 5 postseason PAs since 10/19/23:

100

In person, early (which is a nice option I use some elections), Election Day, Vote by Mail. All work. Everyone should just educate themselves, know what is important to you, and vote.

John @johnlindros.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

If they put Turner on waivers, he would clear waivers. Same with JT. Same with Nola. I think Schwarber might too, depends on how you feel about him through 6/30 vs after 7/1. Dombrowski doesn’t feel alive without at least 2 underwater contracts on the books.

000

John @johnlindros.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

They almost missed the playoffs with 3 Cy Young contender level SPs. They are probably losing a guy for nothing who went .271/.335/.422 over his final 128 regular season games, was their 3rd/4th best hitter over that time and was their best in September. So whoever they add has to do that.