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John Roman

@johnkroman.bsky.social
1.2K followers 576 following 365 posts

Director, Center on Public Safety and Justice, NORC at the University of Chicago. Essays: johnkroman.substack.com.

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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Lots of loose talk about how likely AI is to kill us all. One better way to think about the risks of AI is to learn from near misses, incidents like the Hugging Face attack and many others, to estimate actual risk, not just existential risk. johnkroman.substack.com/p/using-near...
johnkroman.substack.com
Using near misses to estimate p(doom) in AI
Lessons from crime policy research
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
As a fan of a rival team, few things are more infuriating than watching Jalen Hurts play football. But you gotta love the guy, he's an amazing citizen. www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/e...
nbcphiladelphia.com
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts invests $600k for cooling system at Northeast High School
A new cooling system is set for Northeast High School through, what organizers called, the Jalen Hurts Foundation's 'largest donation to date.'
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
It is pretty funny to use Grammarly on top of an LLM. Grammarly hates the way LLMs write, as do I. But the battle of the machines is interesting to witness.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
We underestimate how much 9/11 changed how we view crime and how much more fearful it made us. Before 9/11, people’s crime sentiments actually tracked with national crime statistics. After 9/11, crime rates and crime fears do not track at all.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Is this the new thing? To have opinions about facts? If so, I have some thoughts on why I am against gravity.
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MacRumors.com @macrumors.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok Are Down
macrumors.com
ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok Are Down
It is apparently not a good day for AI chatbots, as ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok are all down or experiencing issues for many users. OpenAI's status page acknowledges issues across ChatGPT and Codex, while Grok's website notes that it is currently experiencing issues as well. Likewise, Anthropic's status page indicates Claude is experiencing elevated errors. All of the companies are investigating the issues.Tag: ChatGPT This article, "ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok Are Down" first appeared on MacRumors.com Discuss this article in our forums
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Council on Criminal Justice @counciloncj.org · 25/08/2026
This report, prepared for the CCJ Women's Justice Commission, was authored by CCJ Policy Director Stephanie Kennedy, Avinash Bhati, and @johnkroman.bsky.social. Learn more about the Women's Justice Commission here: counciloncj.org/womens-justi...
counciloncj.org
Women's Justice Commission - Council on Criminal Justice
The Women’s Justice Commission is examining the unique challenges facing women in the justice system and building consensus for evidence-based policy changes that enhance safety, health, and justice.
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Joshua B. Hoe @joshuabhoe.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Do you seriously care about public safety? Do you really want to contribute to the continuation of historic declines in violent crime and homicide? FUND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Stop the partisan nonsense...do what works Great stuff, @johnkroman.bsky.social johnkroman.substack.com/p/as-the-vio...
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Love the @johngreensbluesky.bsky.social citation here. "Tyler Cowen of George Mason University noted that the institutional changes it describes only seem to come from other institutional changes, making the core argument regress forever—turtles all the way down." archive.is/202608181523...
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Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Today's pod is a doozy! I do a deep dive with @johnkroman.bsky.social about why crime is falling in the United States and whether it will continue. Give it a listen! Apple - podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a... Spotify - open.spotify.com/episode/3zrk...
podcasts.apple.com
A Deep Dive into Why Crime is Falling with John Roman
Podcast Episode · The Jeff-alytics Podcast · July 22 · 37m
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Council on Criminal Justice @counciloncj.org · 15/07/2026
What are the costs, benefits, and public safety tradeoffs of women’s incarceration? Watch yesterday’s conversation with experts Elias Diggins, Victoria Kuhn, and @johnkroman.bsky.social, moderated by CCJ Policy Director Stephanie Kennedy, here: counciloncj.org/event-record...
counciloncj.org
Event Recording: The Rising Cost of Women’s Incarceration and What It Means for Public Safety - Council on Criminal Justice
In this conversation, the Council on Criminal Justice Women's Justice Commission and a panel of experts discussed the costs, benefits, and tradeoffs of women's incarcarceration.
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Council on Criminal Justice @counciloncj.org · 30/06/2026
What are the costs, benefits, and public safety tradeoffs of women’s incarceration? Join experts Elias Diggins, Victoria Kuhn, and @johnkroman.bsky.social for a discussion grounded in findings from new CCJ research, moderated by CCJ's Stephanie Kennedy. Register: events.zoom.us/ev/AsKgy4CUx...
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Second cab in a row where the seatbelt doesn’t work. Though this one sounds like it’s about to blow up. Gonna wrap the belt around me like Jason Bourne when he backs off the roof of the parking garage.
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Ian Marcus Amelkin (he/him) @imaprof.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
johnkroman.substack.com/p/recent-tre... Really interesting read from @johnkroman.bsky.social #itstheguns
johnkroman.substack.com
Recent trends in gun violence in America
Gun sales are high, but below long-term trends, firearms homicides are declining, and firearms suicides are increasing
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
While you fret about the AI revolution, the geese are advancing. And they are a cruel master.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
The red line shows homicides between 2018 and 2025. The blue line, the number of local government employees. They are mirror images. The blue line trends w/ARPA, a $350B investment in local government. The red line trends down as 1 million teachers, counselors, and clinicians enter the workforce.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
How’s it going in the NBA? Bucks Management: Hey Doc we know it’s a lot to ask, but we want you to lose the rest of the games. Doc: that sucks but I’ll do it. Management: good job losing all those games. You’re fired.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
European hotels: We have a fine room to accommodate your three adults. You may select from a room with one queen bed or, a room with two twin beds. Our other rooms will not accommodate three adults.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
What predicts justified police shootings? open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...
open.substack.com
Looking for Patterns in Justified Police Homicides
Correlations between justified police homicide and violence trends
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Iain Brennan @iainbrennan.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
"Successes from prevention are statistical rather than personal." Nice article from @johnkroman.bsky.social on violence prevention and its challenges in the US
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...
open.substack.com
How Prevention Reduced Crime and How To Get More of It
Prevention is the third rail of Abundance. Let's fix that.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
How Prevention Reduced Crime and How To Get More of It open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...
open.substack.com
How Prevention Reduced Crime and How To Get More of It
Prevention is the third rail of Abundance. Let's fix that.
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Ames Grawert @amescg.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Why could crime have declined? Leading criminologists like @johnkroman.bsky.social increasingly point to state, local, and federal investments in crime prevention. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
The Great Crime Decline Is Happening All Across the Country
Even cities with understaffed police departments have made record gains.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
In the debate about whether Medicaid should pay for access to GLP-1s, the potential benefit of widespread access to GLP-1s, lowering crime rates, is rarely included among the potential benefits. If it were, it might tip the scales in favor of broader coverage. johnkroman.substack.com/p/medicine-c...
johnkroman.substack.com
Medicine can reduce crime
GLP-1 and Crime Reductions: Reducing crime through better health
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Zebras were giving it to Denver no matter what. Brutal.
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Grits for Breakfast @gritsforbreakfast.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Saying Trump is "weaponizing" these systems ignores that they were already much-used weapons, only targeting ppl w/o political power. DOJ's blessing of Rene Good's shooting is based on precedents from cops getting a pass in >1,000 such cases/year. If this is authoritarianism, maybe that was, too.
mappingpoliceviolence.org
Mapping Police Violence
Law enforcement agencies across the country are failing to provide us with even basic information about the lives they take. So we collect the data ourselves.
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Jennifer Doleac @jenniferdoleac.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Cool job alert: "Postdoctoral Scholar: Criminal Justice Research Center & PA Department of Corrections" This is an opportunity to contribute to the fantastic research program at the PA DOC under Bret Bucklen.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Stay in school kids. When your connecting flight is delayed, and you’re gaming out alternate routes, all that algebra is going to be really helpful.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Every day, school is a surprise. Me: "Hey! Let's go! The bus will be here any minute" Child: "What are you talking about??!?"
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
The Prosecutors and Politics Project at UNC School of Law has released a study analyzing over 11,000 bills changing criminal law in all 50 states between 2015 and 2018. Please join me and a very distinguished panel today, October 1, at Noon EST to discuss the implications. lnkd.in/etzAqi3M
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Without looking closely, I have twelve papers in there. Since authors are not paid for academic articles, the irony would be that this would be my first check.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
I think 83% of my emails are this exchange. Them: What time can you meet on Wednesday? Me: Anytime but 10 to 11 Them: Great, I'll send an invite for 10.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Crime control is undergoing a massive shift in the US and around the world, with surveillance tech advancing much faster than privacy protections. Bottom-line: the tech does reduce crime, and, it will likely infringe on civil liberties without careful regulation. www.forbes.com/sites/thomas...
forbes.com
AI Startup Flock Thinks It Can Eliminate All Crime In America
With more than 80,000 AI-powered cameras across the U.S., Flock Safety has become one of cops’ go-to surveillance tools. Now CEO Garrett Langley has both police tech giant Axon and Chinese drone maker...
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
Polls show most Americans think crime is rising because 'crime' is a catch-all term. But, there are dozens of evidence-based ways to reduce disorder and fight crime, and many of the most effective approaches do not involve the police. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...
open.substack.com
When people say crime is a big problem, are they really talking about crime?
Sometimes, but not always
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
The Abundance agenda has real promise, but it does require a much more serious approach to crime. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...
open.substack.com
On the YIMBY-Abundance Crime Blind Spot
Nudging the pro-city crowd toward more effective crime policy
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
Spot on. I would note that there are 43 law enforcement agencies operating in Washington, the majority of which are federal. The Capitol Hill police alone have a force about the size of Cleveland's municipal police.
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Emily Badger @emmbadger.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
The president wants to “take back” DC, but the federal government never really let it go. It touches nearly every aspect of life in the city, making it harder for local officials to manage even the things Trump cares most about. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/14/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Wants to ‘Take Back’ D.C., but the Federal Government Already Controls Much of It
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
Such a bad take from the @nytimes.com. It ignores decades of evidence from police research, criminology, economics, etc. It's a barstool conversation based on a hazy recollection of college sociology. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/14/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Crime Keeps Falling. Here’s Why.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
It is hard to think of an idea with more staying power, and one with less empirical support, than the idea that the way to be tough on crime is to lock lots of people up. What I want to propose here is a much more effective way to be tough on crime. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...
open.substack.com
Let’s get tough on crime by solving more crimes
Choosing between certainty and punishment
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 27/07/2025
Gun violence continues to declining rapidly. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...
open.substack.com
New CDC Data Shows a Substantial Decline in Gun Violence in 2024
Gun Violence Declines are Accelerating and Greater (Local) State Capacity is the Reason
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
Disorder has declined a lot since 2020. And it appears that a big increase in the size of local governments around the country is driving the change. This upends the long-held idea that disorder is driven almost exclusively by local policy. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...
open.substack.com
Disorder is Declining Along with Violence
All crime is not local
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Philadelphia Center for Gun Violence Reporting @pcgvr.org · 18/06/2025
Philadelphia homicides leapt from 13 victims in April to 30 last month, according to new Philly Stat 360 update today: philly-stat-360.phila.gov/pages/homici...
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Rehabs are full of young men who got hurt playing sports and end up down the rabbit hole. A young man whose sense of self-worth is tied to their athletic performance will find the quick fix unless those around them support a better path. They often don't. www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/brian...
thebaltimorebanner.com
The unraveling of a former Orioles pitcher
Brian Matusz was once the Baltimore Orioles’ next great hope. How did an ‘all-American’ kid lose his way?
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
I definitely did not have spending my whole day watching the men’s tennis finals on my to do list today.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
Such a great essay. I'm not going to extract any great meta lessons, except I get why they wanted to give this a try, and I get why they gave up. www.washingtonpost.com/home/2025/06...
washingtonpost.com
Guest column | My expensive, exhausting, happy failed attempt at homesteading
How many square feet of raised beds do you need to meet a toddler’s strawberry demand? I still don’t know.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
I really appreciate this as a compelling way to test for causality. Instead of a single outcome with a well identified model, multiple (as many as possible!!) tests of a simple pre-post. If you reject the null in every vector, then it is pretty well rejected.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Love this. The missing camper had fought through a blizzard and found shelter in an unlocked cabin. Resort owner Christopher Gutierrez had "left a cabin unlocked as a precaution for this exact situation where someone who is lost could seek shelter." abcnews.go.com/US/georgia-w...
abcnews.go.com
Georgia woman found alive after being missing for 3 weeks in California mountains
A Georgia woman who had been missing for three weeks in the California mountains was found alive on Wednesday, according to the Fresno County Sheriff's Office.
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Dan Semenza @daniel-semenza.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
It's really important to share good news right now. According to the Real-Time Crime Index and @jeffasher.bsky.social, murders are down nearly 22% across the country. That's a big deal and we should continue fighting to keep progress going.
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John Roman @johnkroman.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
When people say they don't like pie charts, I say, that's because you haven't seen the criminal justice system's greatest pie chart. Below, why people are incarcerated, the whole pie.
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Volkan Topalli @volkantopalli.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
👉 This is an important issue of The Criminologist. It contains five pieces about academic publishing in our field, three of which involve #Criminology. The final essays by @SJacques83 on #OpenAccess and by Deena Isom on the #PeerReview crisis are also terrific. 👏 asc41.org/wp-content/u...
asc41.org
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