iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by John Horton

Florian Keppeler @flokeppeler.bsky.social · 25/05/2025

#Wilmasreview Wilma 🐶 recently got a little assistance with her grooming because she recently read a study showing that a little (text) brush-up can lead to more success when applying for a job. In their study, @emmawiles.bsky.social, Zanele Munyikwa, and @johnjhorton.bsky.social test... 1/🧵

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Reposted by John Horton

Emma Wiles @emmawiles.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

🚨 New paper alert, with @johnjhorton.bsky.social! Using an experiment run on a large online labor market, we provide evidence that providing employers access to an AI-written first draft of a job post harms the efficiency of the market. emmawiles.github.io/storage/jobo...

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

arrogant...but he's got a lot to be arrogant about. His documentation is way, way better than mine.

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

gave Claude Code (wow!) some work to do writing documentation. It fixed up a file "survey.py" then got interrupted and lost the context. When it went back, it started again with "survey.py" and said...

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Models you can run on @expectedparrot.bsky.social (w/ just one key); we also hit each one daily to make sure it's not deprecated/down and create this report: www.expectedparrot.com/getting-star...

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Reposted by John Horton

Expected Parrot @expectedparrot.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

With E[P] you can run jobs locally using your own API keys for LLMs, or use our key which comes with $25 in credits. Toggle on "help me" and we'll dig into any issues with your surveys and experiments and help you fix them!

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

Thanks! cc: @expectedparrot.bsky.social LMK if you want any help using it - the use case you described above is *exactly* what motivated us

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Reposted by John Horton

Kevin Zollman @kevinzollman.com · 07/03/2025

Sloan Foundation announced a program to support postdocs in philosophy, sociology, and metascience who want to understand how AI will affect science. Pass it along to anyone who might be interested, the Institute for Complex Social Dynamics might be interested in hosting sloan.org/programs/dig...

sloan.org

Call for submissions: Metascience and AI postdoctoral fellowship | Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

Our mission is to make the world a better place through the advancement of scientific knowledge.

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Nice! Do you already have the transcripts of the podcasts?

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

Or if you want to do text analysis www.expectedparrot.com/content/john...

expectedparrot.com

Expected Parrot

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

What do you want to do w/ AI? I probably can help! E.g., if you're say, working with old records, this NB might be of interest: www.expectedparrot.com/content/john...

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

Two contrasting agent perspectives on DOGE:

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

Extracting succinct descriptions of the policy

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

Economic content of the speech last night (w/ GPT-4o & @expectedparrot.bsky.social ) 1/ NB: www.expectedparrot.com/content/john...

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Note that I can parameterize the valuations the players have with a 'scenario' & that I can launch a bunch of different valuation scenarios easily:

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Using skip-logic & piping to implement bilateral bargaining in github.com/expectedparr... Notebook here: www.expectedparrot.com/content/john...

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

I was there first before that no talent ass clown bought it & was hoping he’d just give up and sell it

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

I just posted the exact same thing on twitter and here & got way more engagement here despite having probably 7x the followers. Twitter really is cooked huh?

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

For researchers/social scientists - the so-what here is you can potentially do very complex data-labeling flows (EDSL also supports skip-logic) w/o having to write a bunch of ad-hoc procedural code

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

That's it! EDSL is open source w/ an MIT license. Notebook w/ EDSL code: expectedparrot.com/content/b068... The resultant data from this run: expectedparrot.com/content/d156... Oh, and here's the data in report format: www.expectedparrot.com/content/0f05...

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

EDSL uses these jinja2 templates + variables to figure out the right order for questions to be run in - it makes the API calls as parallel as possible

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Then, we have the survey. It has a bunch of named questions corresponding to the parts of the original prompt. They are all free text. Note the 'piping' of answers to earlier question to later questions:

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

First, we go get the Senators from Claude - by using a QuestionList, we know we'll get back a list

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

This is very cool & the point is push the model to its limits, but specifying this kind of complex flow is quite easy with github.com/expectedparr... - short thread 1/n

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

yep - we do custodial keys as well for AWS (and I know this because it was a pain to build b/c AWS has another secret you need to add)! I'll reach on email.

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

Oh, and it comes w/ $25 in free credits for a whole range of models. Given how cheap inference has gotten, that's a *lot* of runs!

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

Tools to social scientists using LLMs: www.expectedparrot.com

expectedparrot.com

Expected Parrot

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 09/02/2025

What seems to be going on here is that (a) more people in student sample played exact EV in mirror than in lottery & (b) distributions are *both* roughly symmetric around EV. You can see why w/ means it looks PT-ish (& also at other quantiles). FWIW, I think everyone should CTFO & let Oprea respond

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

I did the student sample plot w/ other quantiles & the mirrors look more like the lotteries - only the median is flat. Seems like waiting to hear from Oprea would be prudent

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Reposted by John Horton

MIT Stone Center on Inequality and Shaping the Future of Work @mitshapingwork.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

How is AI reshaping labor market opportunity, and for whom? Join us on 1/21 to hear from @johnjhorton.bsky.social, @sendhil.bsky.social and @lindseyrraymond.bsky.social about their latest research findings and insights, chaired by David Autor. Register: shapingwork.mit.edu/events/align... #EconSky

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

I think there’s an army general too - maybe 79(?)

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Reposted by John Horton

Zi Yang Kang @ziyangkang.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

1/ My co-author @mitchwatt.bsky.social is on the #EconJobMarket this year. Mitch is an applied theorist interested in market design, IO, and public policy. I happen to know his #JMP and its companion paper very well. 😇 🧵👇 with an overview of both papers. #EconSky

Mitch's JMP: Optimal Redistribution Through Subsidies

Our other paper: Optimal In-Kind Redistribution

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Hey Alex - happy to help here! There’s a lot of things in EDSL for this specific use case. Lmk and I’ll get in touch

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

(Pilgrims):(disagreements with the prevailing state religion) as (BlueSky settlers):(the incompetence & instability of Elon Musk)

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Thankful to have a plausible alternative short form social media /microblogging platform

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

In light of the subsequent DiD literature, my “but Nothing wouLd work if this wEre a pRoblem” argument doesn’t seem so clever…

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

oh this is nice - saw some 'likes' from people I hadn't seen in ages. Very good. Maybe this will work!

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Reposted by John Horton

Cameron @cameron.stream · 18/11/2024

@johnjhorton.bsky.social posted this in the EDSL discord as well -- super cool that this works.

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

can we say 'bastard' here? not sure on rules

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

ok fine i'm here. i forgot i made this account & tried to make another one today w/ this user name and it said it was taken & I thought "what bastard took my..." oh, right it was me

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John Horton @johnjhorton.bsky.social · 02/10/2023

it's true - i was twitter royalty and now I'm doing the social media equivalent of trying to clean up in the public library bathroom

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