iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Also, it's still early in the cycle, so hopefully things start picking up 😎 #econsky

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One interesting thing that I missed last year: while the 2025-26 market was really bad, there was some decent catch up to 2024 near the end. This all seems like confirmation that the weakness in the last 3 cycles is a secular trend, unlikely to rebound anytime soon.

6th year student in the Ph.D. Economics program at Johns Hopkins University.

I've put the interactive chart here to share with friends and will probably keep updating it johngreenecon.com/job-market-t...

johngreenecon.com

JOE Tracker

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With apologies if someone has beaten me to the punch... I've cloned and updated the economics job market tracker from @paulgp.com to get a sense for how the market is going so far this year. Good news: better than 2025 Bad news: not by much

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Incidentally, I really think the dems + media should take to using the word "commissar" for Musk and his team. I'll be honest that most of what I know about the Russian Revolution comes from the @mikeduncan.bsky.social podcast, but the comparison feels apt?

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Probably both and I don't know which one would dominate. But it seems like a grim sign (among many grim signs).

Which makes me think that 1. they have done a pretty good job of weeding out dissent, and/or: 2. they have put the fear of god in anyone who would even think of talking that Musk and his commissars have them surveilled

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This time around -- and maybe I'm missing them, or it's too early -- there seems to be very little of that.

John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

In the first Trump administration I was constantly seeing stories from NYT, WSJ, etc., that would describe inner workings and dysfunctions of white house and inevitably include a line like "this account is based on interviews with more than 25 administration officials"

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If you order it you can decide for yourself 😅

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John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

My sibling Cat is an incredible writer and I am SO EXCITED to be able to buy their new book.

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John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

Also me trying to fix my bicycle yesterday 🥲

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John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

Looking to get up-to-speed on cross imputation: getting a relationship between X and Y in dataset 1, and then imputing Y in dataset 2 where I have X but no Y. I'm told this might be more of a sociology thing -- would love any papers/handbook chapters for the state of the art. #econsky #sociology

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Reposted by John Green

A.J. Bauer @ajbauer.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Damn and now Drake is going to have to pay a 25 percent tariff on that beef?

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back in maybe 2022 there was this brilliant video of Ben Simmons passing up wide open layups in 2K with Steve Nash (remember when he was coach?) looking around in disbelief I assume it's lost to internet history but would love to find this... #sixers #nba

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We are always on the lookout for interesting methods and applications of ML in economics for the reading group!

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GitHub - QingyuanFang/KMR22_JHUML_20241122: materials prepared for JHU Economics Machine Learning Reading Group meeting on Nov 22, 2024

Qingyuan prepared his own modified version where he presents a simple and detailed walk through of the first part of their code, going step-by-step through some of the more complicated pieces. Check it out here! github.com/QingyuanFang...

github.com

materials prepared for JHU Economics Machine Learning Reading Group meeting on Nov 22, 2024 - QingyuanFang/KMR22_JHUML_20241122

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GitHub - tseep/estimating-hank-nn

Last year, the JHU economics ML reading group worked through "Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agent Models with Neural Networks" from Kase at el. Today @qingyuanfang.bsky.social walked us through the authors' code: github.com/tseep/estima...

github.com

Contribute to tseep/estimating-hank-nn development by creating an account on GitHub.

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Of course, "interesting" != publishable (this is another important conversation). But if a study is only compelling if a non-zero affect is found, the incentive to cheat will be large.

In general, finding a null from a program evaluation might not be what the experimenter is hoping -- but this is valuable information for policymakers since funds can be invested in more effective programs.

I think this is significantly better in econ (not perfect). An undergrad I am working with wants to estimate effect of congestion on public transportation use (he has an instrument). He has asked what happens if he finds no effect; I told him that seems very interesting + important!

A null result here just suggests that, surprise surprise, this bizarre "ritual" had no effect on heart rate during karaoke. Who would find this compelling?

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I'm continually dumbfounded when I read about the studies that Gino and coauthors were faking -- this one is about the power of "ritual", as demonstrated by having participants (presumably college students) sprinkle salt on a piece of paper and crumple it before singing a Journey song.

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The Business-School Scandal That Just Keeps Getting Bigger

I think a useful heuristic for social science is: is this question interesting if I find a (precise) null effect? And I will submit that the problem with a lot of these fraudulent marketing studies is the answer was clearly "no." www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...

theatlantic.com

The rot runs deeper than almost anyone has guessed.

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John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Thank GOD "Captain it's Wednesday" is on BSKY

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He's a spark plug -- Philly is missing that energy this year

I am watching the sixers game and about 30 minutes ago my wife asks me "so what ever happened to Cam Payne?" Appreciate him 😂

Which by the way up until recently I didn't even KNOW they wrote poetry -- I've just read (and loved) their novels! And now they've got a little collection being published. Phenomenal.

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My baby sibling is an absolutely incredible writer and I am *so* excited for more of their writing to be entering the world.

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You're totally right -- but only after it spiked in the first 2 years. So I'm wondering if people are more sensitive to the rise than they are to the fall? I think Trump will probably be very bad for inflation so we might get another test case in the next few years...

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There’s a lot of good responses here, but I feel like the trajectory matters a lot here. Inflation was basically declining since Reagan took office, so maybe voters associate him with breaking it.

John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

"Some studies implicitly adopt the view that, perhaps because of some benevolent identification deity, the data at hand necessarily include some set of conditioning variables that suffice for the CIA." incredible line from Barnow and Smith (2015) 🔥🔥

John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

I think the only fundamental use is facilitating illegal transactions. Maybe this gives it some non-$0 value, but not nearly what it is now. In contrast to gold which like you has industrial and aesthetic applications

John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

There is some good in this world

So, I'm long on the AI stuff and super short on crypto. But bubbles can last a long time. We could have a dot-com style AI bust while crypto keeps rallying. But 20 years from now, I think one of these will be in our lives, and the other will be like a weird fever dream.

Contrast that with the new AI technologies. Which, as messy and imperfect and sometimes goofy as this sometimes is, have already been rolled out in tons of different contexts to create useful products that people want to use.

The two use cases seem to be: 1. Buy it because you think the price will go up 2. Use it to evade sanctions/law enforcement Neither of these seem long-term sustainable?

It's been more than a decade since it broke out and some of the (supposedly) smartest people in tech are working on it, and yet there seem to be no meaningful applications of it to provide a service and create a profitable business. It's still a solution in search of a problem.

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Trump’s win has Bitcoin soaring. The ‘normies’ want in.

I know the crypto crowd won big and bitcoin is at record levels, etc., but I am still so incredibly down on this whole thing. Like, it's-going-to-go-to-$0-eventually level down on it. www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

washingtonpost.com

Expectation that the new Trump administration will be favorable to cryptocurrency has sent prices soaring, luring in some investors for the first time.

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Great article. And I feel like it's even worse -- Biden and his team did so much to sabotage Harris from day 1 of the administration.

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Tyrese Maxey on the broadcast for the Jared McCain dunk is everything I wanted

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I feel like the word "elite" has just fully lost its usefulness after the 2024 election. I can't think of a coherent definition that fits all the ways it has been thrown around the last week and a half.

My partners family discovered that her great grandpa had basically had the life of Robert Pattinson in ‘the lighthouse’

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Where I live there is still an old school DVD rental store and I’ve been working through the Wes Anderson shelf and I am very happy to find out this is actually a very fashionable thing to be doing

Calling this now for credit if I am correct and 0 accountability if not

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