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John Eric Humphries

@johneric.bsky.social

767 followers 246 following 1 posts

Assistant professor at Yale. Labor economist. johnerichumphries.com

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Reposted by John Eric Humphries

NBER @nber.org · 14/04/2025

Eviction has spillover effects on children, with particularly negative effects for boys and older kids. These effects may be moderated by access to family support networks, from Collinson, Dutz, @johneric.bsky.social, Mader, Tannenbaum, and van Dijk www.nber.org/papers/w33659

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Reposted by John Eric Humphries

John Eric Humphries @johneric.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

Jason Abaluck and I are organizing the Cowles Labor and Public Economics Conference at Yale, June 2-3. Submit your papers by March 24: cowles.yale.edu/conferences/... @jabaluck.bsky.social

cowles.yale.edu

Cowles Summer Conference Paper Submission Form

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Reposted by John Eric Humphries

Megan Stevenson @meganstevenson.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

Paper🧵! We.... 1) develop a framework for identification w/ multiple treatments in a judge IV design 2) find that felony conviction (without incarceration) increases recidivism relative to dismissal with @johneric.bsky.social Aurelie Ouss @winnievd.bsky.social and Kamelia Stavreva 1/

This a screenshot of the abstract of our paper, called Conviction, Incarceration and Recidivism: Understanding the Revolving Door. It says "Noncarceral conviction is a common outcome of criminal court cases: for every individual
incarcerated, there are approximately three who were recently convicted but not sentenced to
prison or jail. We extend the binary-treatment judge IV framework to settings with multiple
treatments and use it to study the consequences of noncarceral conviction. We outline
assumptions under which widely-used 2SLS regressions recover margin-specific treatment
effects, relate these assumptions to models of judge decision-making, and derive an expression
that provides intuition about the direction and magnitude of asymptotic bias when a key
assumption on judge decision-making is not met. We find that noncarceral conviction (relative
to dismissal) leads to a large and long-lasting increase in recidivism for felony defendants in
Virginia. In contrast, incarceration (relative to noncarceral conviction) leads to a short-run
reduction in recidivism, consistent with incapacitation. Our empirical results suggest that
noncarceral felony conviction is an important and overlooked driver of recidivism."

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John Eric Humphries @johneric.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

Jason Abaluck and I are organizing the Cowles Labor and Public Economics Conference at Yale, June 2-3. Submit your papers by March 24: cowles.yale.edu/conferences/... @jabaluck.bsky.social

cowles.yale.edu

Cowles Summer Conference Paper Submission Form

0199