iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

All the fires close to Bordeaux are now under control.

John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Here is world data on wildfires. Going further back is not possible because of the lack of satellite data. The world average data actually shows a decrease. Regional data show big fluctuations. The issue is prevention measures and human set fires. No evidence variations are related to CO2 emissions.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Yes the fire in Gironde are continuing. The real issue beyond anecdotes is is the rate of wildfire really increasing on average.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

It is still a bit blue in the tire track image.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Migrant arrivals in "small boats" into UK down by factor two in first 5 months of 2026 compared to 2025. Classical media does not seem to report this, so politicians can make it up.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

The Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly open to shipping own by Iran and its allies. It has only been closed to allies of the USA.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

The evolution of Trump Net Approval Rating is showing a significant downward turn in the past few months. Let's hope this continues to the mid-term elections.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

A new poll by Convergent indicate a 12 point lead of Labour in Makerfield by election.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

Recent poll for Makerfiled by election indicates Labour (Andy Burnham) will win.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Preparations for G7 in Geneva. The event is 50km away in Evian, in France.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

A plot made by Claude AI from multiple sources shows that shipping by USA allies has been zero for the past week but there have been Iran allies crossing. Falling to just two on 11 June.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

The Stait of Hormuz is not closed for Iran and Iran allies. Only for USA allies.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Apart from the language, the claim of Trump is completely false. An increasing number of Iranian and Iran friendly ships are transiting the Gulf of Hormuz.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

There is no evidence that Climate Change is reducing food production in the UK or elsewhere. On the contrary, while average temperatures have been rising since 1970, food yields have increased. Here is an example of the yield wheat production in the UK and Europe(27° which has doubled since 1970.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

A typical plot I get Claude to make to fill in details of current affairs which are otherwise difficult to find. A plot of shipping transits in the Strait of Hormuz since the start of Gulf War III. This separates ships with flags of Iran friends and foes. (Say if I am going too far).

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

As a test of Claude, I asked it a question using a line in your bio. The text below is the start of the answer. The rest is 2 pages of text which I do not know how to send with Bluesky.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

I think the polls using a question without details are well known. The can be found on Wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potenti... about 51% rejoin, 33% stay out. But this majority disappears with the euro requirement.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

This is an essential point. Polls taken in 2024 indicate a majority to "Stay out" with the questiion: A condition of rejoining might be the adoption of the euro as currency. If the UK did have to adopt the euro how do you think you would vote if there was a referendum on EU membership tomorrow?

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Streeting not very popular among Labour Party members.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

Carrying over from the last election, the Tories have the biggest chunk of spare votes. With 65% voting leave in the referendum, the situation looks vey close to me. I imagine we will be seeing lots of pundits making predictions next week and soon specific opinion polls.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

This link is not free but the headline indicates what is is likely to do.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Polls taken in 2024 with the question, should the UK rejoin the EU if the Euro is a condition, were against rejoining. A commitment to the Euro will be a condition even though some countries have avoiding doing so in practise.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Comparisons from The Economist, "Economic and Financial Indicators"

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Transit of ships in/out Strait of Hormuz using Claude. Pre-war baseline: ~130/day Mar 1–Apr 12: avg 6–7/day Apr 8–12 ceasefire window: brief uptick, then re-closed Apr 17–18 reopening: ~13 tankers May 11: 18 transits (8 in, 10 out) May 12: 12 transits (6 in, 6 out) Nothing is changing much.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Continue with his programme and ensure it is better known. Please see: whathaskeirdone.co.uk

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

A lot of voters are very alarmed at the increase in immigration after Brexit. To avoid a right-wing government disaster it must come down. Do you not see that?

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

Yes certainly, many people want to be rid of the Brown people. With the Brexit vote they wanted to be rid of White people who did not speak perfect English. They succeeded in that but got lots of others who were less white and spoke less well. Nevertheless this is indeed why they vote Reform.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

I do not know details the Labour rules on immigration but know that the numbers of immigrants has been a dominant factor in UK voting patterns in recent times. The rise in EU immigrants before 2016 were important for the Brexit vote. After Brexit there was an enormous increase in non-EU immigrants.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

I found this instructive. Most Labour seats went to Reform, then some to LibDem and some to Green. So it is not clear why their focus should be on Green.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Here is data on radiation dose received for a manned Mars mission. (Data provided by Claude)

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

The Economist in "How long would it take to read the greatest books of all time?", reports on a website thegreatestbooks.org. Shane Sherman has made “greatest books of all time” (GBOATs). Ranked 3 on the list is Ulysses by James Joyce! How many people in the world have ever managed to read this?

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

Got this answer from Claude. UK is bad.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Here is the list from Claude of reactors actually under construction.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

I asked Claude to list all planned nuclear reactors around the world here is the result.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Claude AI says this widely shared post goes beyond what has been officially announced.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

High fractions of wind+solar in the electricity generation mix result in high household electricity prices in EU countries. Denmark (63% W+S ), Germany (50%), Ireland (44%) have the highest prices. Hungary, Bulgaria, and France with low W+S are the lowest. Not what Green would have us believe.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 14/02/2026

I hope you know what the atmospheric level is.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Opinion of Claude AI is he will likely not be fired.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

And on Public Ownership. Here things are happening but not fast enough.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

OK. Here is the Claude answer on tuition fees. This one does say there was a change between what he said in the past and current policy.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

I have searched using the Claude AI engine and the answer I get matches my recollection.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Here is a plot of the average dose to a person. Medicine is 42% on average, natural radioactivity 58%. All other sources tiny, less than 1%. I persist because the is a great deal of misunderstanding of natural radioactivity.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Here are measurements of radioactivity in Bordeaux wine for vintage. This show that vintage years 1957 and 1963 had levels of 2500 mBq/litre while Chernobyl vintage had 200 mBq/litre. Clearly the years of atmospheric weapons testing gave vastly more contamination than the Chernobyl accident. 3/N

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 11/03/2025

Here is carbon intensity data from Our World in Data. It only goes up to 2023 but it is impossible that the UK halves from 2023 to 2024. As you say the UK will loss most of its local nuclear power generation before 2030, this make is impossible it will be "sub 50" in 2030. Best to be realistic.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

Here is a plot I have made for about 30 European countries showing the carbon intensity for different fractions of hydro+nuclear and wind+solar (size of bulb). If the UK wants low carbon intensity it must build more nuclear, more wind+solar will not help because of gas backup.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

It is the start-up tritium which is the biggest problem. The expectation is the CANDU reactors will start to be retired soon. Tritium stocks decay and then ITER uses up all the supplies. The fusion industry must build a fleet of fission reactors to provide to start.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

Here are the actual wind correlations. It is very high between adjacent countries. You have to go 1000 km to avoid the correlations.

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John Carr @johncarrabc.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

First interconnect to France was installed in 1986. The large increase in import capacity has been in the past decade. The common argument now for wind is that when it is off in the UK it can be imported. But this is false because much wind capacity in both the UK and the EU is in the North Sea.

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