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João Carvalho

@joaocarvalho21.bsky.social
90 followers 50 following 135 posts

Integrated researcher at CIES-ISCTE interested on the topics of the politics of international migration and the far right.

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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
www.semafor.com/article/09/2...
semafor.com
IMF chief warns AI boom is masking economic fragility from oil shocks
The Middle East conflict is a supply shock dragging global growth down, while the AI investment boom is a demand shock pushing it up, but what happens when one side gives?
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
biggest concern of the moment, for those who are not fooled by the great substitution... www.independent.co.uk/voices/ai-ar...
independent.co.uk
We asked AI whether it would lead to human extinction in a decade
The artificial intelligence tool set the probability of human extinction mercifully lower than the predictions of AI engineers Jacob Coxon and Evan Hubinger, as Jacqui Merrington found out
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
will it really haunt Farage or violence has been rationalized to the degree that is welcomed rather than despised... inews.co.uk/opinion/the-...
inews.co.uk
The image that will haunt Farage
Reform conference attendees attacking protestors could be a defining moment for the party
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
deeply honored! thanks so much to Jan Rovny for pulling this seminar at Science Po. If you around Paris, you are invited! If not, it will be covered on Zoom I also promise to present some fresh new data out of the oven that me, Mariana Duarte and Didier Ruedin have been exploring
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
a strange 'brave new world' is upon us... Huxley would be puzzled... www.independent.co.uk/politics/jd-...
independent.co.uk
JD Vance took the White House press briefing to a very strange place
In a surprisingly long briefing, the vice president managed to claim that there is no war in Iran, that sauerkraut from RFK Jr made him rapidly lose weight, and that Americans should build nuclear rea...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
for those who like British soccer, prospects are bleak... www.independent.co.uk/sport/footba...
independent.co.uk
How the Premier League’s greed could soon become its drastic downfall
The Premier League has spent more than £3.5bn this summer and, as Chief Football Writer Miguel Delaney details, a lack of financial control and liquidity could provoke a nasty surprise in the not-too-...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Very happy to start my three weeks fellowship at Science po Paris. Let me know if you drop by or if you have nice suggestions. Thanks to Jan Rovni, Nonna Mayer and Colin Hay for their support!
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Reposted by João Carvalho
Pontus Odmalm @podmalm.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Important read (if I may)👇 (ping @edinburghpir.bsky.social @timbale.bsky.social @dafnoukos.bsky.social @tabouchadi.bsky.social @profsob.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social @jdportes.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social) link.springer.com/epdf/10.1057...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
the art of the deal...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
my latest publication according to google scholar... regardless of my political science background
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
always by the book... www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home...
independent.co.uk
Council apologises for parking fines after Bedford railway crash
Bedford Borough Council accused of lacking common sense after issuing fixed penalty tickets to vehicles near Bedford railway station following last Friday’s tragic crash
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
is this the faith of centre-right parties?
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
really bad news www.gbnews.com/money/uk-uni...
gbnews.com
UK universities face biggest crisis in decades as 30,000 jobs disappear and redundancies soar
Around 43 per cent of universities are in deficit, with courses, research projects and thousands of jobs facing the axe
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Obama's legacy? www.theguardian.com/artanddesign...
theguardian.com
‘Like a Klingon prison’: inside Barack Obama’s audacious, near-windowless, $850m presidential library
Towering over a low-income area of Chicago, and wrapped in a speech that’s hard to decipher, this controversial monolith feels like a menacing sci-fi HQ. Is it a monument – or a mausoleum?
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
another breakdown in a "Special Relationship", this time between "potential" war criminals
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
most weird academic deceit I received so far via whataspp
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
free speech! www.independent.co.uk/arts-enterta...
independent.co.uk
Author of tell-all Facebook memoir forced to sit in silence during Hay Festival talk
Sarah Wynn-Williams wrote the bestselling memoir ‘Careless People: A Cautionary Tale of Power, Greed, and Lost Idealism’, detailing her seven years working for the tech giant
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
why cant we all have the same tax balance... 🤔
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
just 51%...
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Reposted by João Carvalho
Stephen H. Jones @stphnhwrdjns.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Notable also that the major Spanish news networks like El País and RTVE *always* describe Reform and Farage as far right/ultraderecha in their headlines.
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
easiest way to become popular today...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
the way to loose elections and throw the world in disarray... anybody heard about trade tariffs lately! what a cornerstone of MAGA... From one corner to other corner, until they definitely cornered
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Look who came into town... Starting in ten minutes
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Are we witnessing a critical juncture in the future of transatlantic relations?
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
the sky is shinning, and the USA is loosing... 😱 how can it be... who said so! fake news for sure
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
the opening of the strait by Vasco Gargalo
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Trump is surely winning 😱
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
by Vasco Gargalo
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Does not Potus loves unpredictability... ??? I would say: Calm as a bomb? remarkable, from a movie star that I seen alongside an Eastern bunny in the balcony of the white house
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
cease fire in the White House is over?
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Ageless... And one of the best ways to explain to your kids why you study politics for life
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Reposted by João Carvalho
Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Imagine a world in which pundits and politicians would have learned the right lessons of the Danish Social Democrats… 🤔
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
just on time for the mid-term elections... www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260319-oma...
middleeastmonitor.com
Oman FM: US has lost control of foreign policy, entered ‘war that is not its own’
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said on Wednesday that the United States has lost control of its foreign policy and is involved in a war that is not its own. Writing in The Economist, he sai…
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/m...
independent.co.uk
Putin gives Trump easy way out of confused Iran war strategy – and he might take it
As Donald Trump delivers bafflingly mixed messages about the end of the Iran war, he has suggested he may lift oil sanctions on Russia, but that will suit only one man – Vladimir Putin. World affairs ...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
the succession by Vasco Gargalo
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
great economic prospects for the world 😱, and the UK in particular... thanks to Trumpism...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
historians are always on a different side of social sciences unlike political scientists... philosophers tend to be even worse... that is reason why envy them quite a bit :D www.spiegel.de/internationa...
spiegel.de
(S+) U.S. Historian Robert Kagan: "We Are Watching a Country Fall Under Dictatorship Almost Without Resistance"
The Cold War? Child's play compared to what lies ahead, according to U.S. historian Robert Kagan. Trump, he says, is leading the world into the most dangerous era since 1945.
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
and I doubt it ever will... collective punishment of Iranians will undergo unlimited like in Gaza or Cuba new imperial order is basic disregard for international law, war conventions, human rights, you name it...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
great prospects for the mid-term elections in the USA, Trump's better option will be just to cancel them...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
by Trump's standards, the war on Iran is not going very well... loss of life comes at last, especially if not of his native fellows
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
hummm... who said history does not repeat itself...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
deep thinking, heavy planing, great strategy... following a war criminal is always the best and only policy option www.independent.co.uk/news/world/m...
independent.co.uk
Israel’s imminent attack on Iran forced US to join war, says Rubio
Joint US and Israeli strikes have caused mayhem in the Middle East and triggered retaliatory attacks on Gulf countries
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
de-humanization is breaking all levels registered since WWII... a school and his students was blown to pieces, but the game must go on...
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
according to Trump's standards, its a success... luckily it just started...
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Reposted by João Carvalho
emptywheel @emptywheel.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
The Mad and Senile King is just using reporters as a sounding board to see what might sound good in the press.
Gregg Carlstrom
@glcarlstrom
Trump is basically calling up every journalist in his phone to workshop different timelines and goals for his war. In the past two days:

@washingtonpost
: the aim is "freedom for the people" of Iran

@axios
: maybe we can "end it in two or three days" with a deal

@nytimes
: might be "four to five weeks", I have "three very good choices" who might take control in Iran

@abc
: actually, nevermind, we killed those choices

He doesn't sound convinced by any of it. He's throwing spaghetti at the wall. Ultimately I suspect he just wants to say he "solved" a problem that has vexed every American president since Jimmy Carter.

But there's no clear idea what that looks like and no plan for how to get there. And there are plenty of possible scenarios in which Trump declares victory and leaves the region with an absolute mess
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
beyond any legality... Trump and Putin are not too far away on international law
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João Carvalho @joaocarvalho21.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
In the new dystopian world, both Putin and Trump suggest that Kyiv and Tehran surrender to their wishes... if not, prepare for the consequences, international law is long gone... its creators have totally abandoned it while Europe is stuck in the old times... gulfnews.com/world/mena/t...
gulfnews.com
Trump warns IRGC to surrender or face certain death: What to know about Iran’s elite military force
Explore the pivotal role of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as tensions escalate with the US and Israel. President Trump warns the IRGC to surrender or face dire consequences, highligh...
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